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Hoosier

April 14-15 Snow Potential

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One thing I noticed on the 23z HRRR is the low is more back to the Indiana and Illinois border now as opposed to earlier today putting much more of Indiana in the warm sector at 17z tomorrow.  Not sure if this is a fluke or perhaps due to less intense convection down south than modeled that it allows the low to move more nw.  I’m horrible at this analyzing but found it curious.

Edit.  0z appears to be doing the same thing.  This would have an impact with both the snow and severe side of this storm if true.

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Wetbulb zero levels on the 00z DVN and ILX soundings were around 2500 and 3200 feet respectively.  Also have quite a spread in current temps/dews.  Temps should drop fairly rapidly later with evap cooling.

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Here's an illustration of the warm layer aloft

 

700th.conus.thumb.png.803f45addadfcb9388aee1913d14e8f6.png

 

So if you're near the edge, hope for heavy/convective type precip to try to beat back the warming to some extent.  We all know how this goes though, more often than not. 

 

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Planning to get a good rest tonight and then an early a.m. drive to MKE to grab the sleds. Won't be getting up at 3:45 or 4 a.m. EST like Tiger said he would for his 9:30 a.m. tee time but figure on the road by 5:30 as snow just getting started and then back by 8 or so with fingers crossed for a strike in progress across mby.

I rode fresh powder in early April in UP maybe ten years ago after grooming was done for season. Tomorrow would be latest ever for us and to potentially have it local on the still open no-till bean fields would be fantastic.

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18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

HRRR with the snowiest run yet. Obviously going to be a bit overdone, but still...

37951f858adff0c9936610d2d07c8b05.jpg


.

Still snowing at end of run.

Would not be surprised to see a localized 6+ if things go right.

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MLI needs 8.9" to break the seasonal record of 69.7".  They won't reach that, but if the 00z models are correct they could stat pad a few inches onto the existing 60.8".  It was 54 today here, with full sun, so the ground will definitely be fighting off whatever accumulates from underneath.

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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI needs 8.9" to break the seasonal record of 69.7".  They won't reach that, but if the 00z models are correct they could stat pad a few inches onto the existing 60.8".  It was 54 today here, with full sun, so the ground will definitely be fighting off whatever accumulates from underneath.

MLI has not been below freezing at all since April 3.  ORD not since April 1.  

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Wonder if LOT will issue any headlines overnight. If hi-res models are to be believed, some areas could see higher end totals. Don’t think 6+ will pan out, but who knows. Even 2-4” with the rates the hrrr/rap is showing would cause road conditions to deteriorate pretty quickly, even with temps a bit above freezing. 

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6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Wonder if LOT will issue any headlines overnight. If hi-res models are to be believed, some areas could see higher end totals. Don’t think 6+ will pan out, but who knows. Even 2-4” with the rates the hrrr/rap is showing would cause road conditions to deteriorate pretty quickly, even with temps a bit above freezing. 

I think one would be more likely if it were a weekday.  May get a last minute one anyway though.  It has hardly snowed for 2 months and people may have forgotten how to drive.  :axe:

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I’m 7 miles west of Milwaukee in Wauwatosa where it’s 37 degrees. When I left Atlanta this morning it was 70. 

Feeling good about 1-3 inches here. Short-range guidance is pretty encouraging. Even if it struggles to accumulate I think daytime snow is prettier anyways. Maybe we’ll get a surprise. Think I’ve only seen 6”+ maybe twice? 

Good luck everybody from a southerner! 

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

For Chicago, there have only been 5 instances of not having a 1" calendar day snow in March followed by a 1" calendar day snow in April.  Here are the dates/amounts of the last Jan/Feb 1" snow and the dates/amounts of the April 1" or greater snow that broke each streak.  How about that stretch in 1910.

2/15/1903:  4.7" ------> 4/3/1903:  2.6"

1/14/1910:  1.6" ------> 4/23/1910:  2.1"

2/26/1936:  1.3" ------> 4/1/1936:  2.1"

2/18/2000:  11.1" ------> 4/7/2000:  1.6"

2/25/2007:  2.3" ------> 4/11/2007:  3.0"

2/18/2019:  1.8" ------> 4/14/2019:  ???

Corrected a mistake with 1936... had the wrong date.

Btw, in regards to the 2.6" on 4/3/1903... it was 77 degrees the day before.

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The high-res guidance keeps waffling back and forth on the western edge of things.  One run shows 0.6-0.8" here, the next run shows a few tenths.  The GFS shows a trace.  6hrs from the event and I still have no idea what to expect lol.  No matter what happens it's been pretty interesting to track.

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My suggestion today is to chuck LOT's forecast and read the discussion. Forecast in no way can depict the range of possibilities. 

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WBBM traffic report says numerous spinouts and cars in ditches. So either hype machine or some credence and real impacts on roads already.

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