• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
USCAPEWEATHERAF

Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????

Recommended Posts

0z looks more like 12z run rather than a toned down 18z

Still a decent hit, verbatim qpf roughly:

3-6 Worcester east

6-12 South Shore to canal

~ 12 most of Cape Cod

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

0z looks more like 12z run rather than a toned down 18z

Still a decent hit, verbatim qpf roughly:

3-6 Worcester east

6-12 South Shore to canal

~ 12 most of Cape Cod

Oh boy.....thank you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know that, but it still shows where banding set up.

I wish they had H7 contours with that map instead of RH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even with the Euro not being jacked as the other 0z guidance, it was an awesome suite. I'm fully satisfied with 6-12 for Sat if you compromise everything, obv hoping for more.

Cantore will probably be on the first flight into BOS tomorrow morning

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where are you guys accessing 18z Euro H5 / vorticity plots? Weathermodels.com only has surface plots and upper level temps.

I don't think so many models jumping at 18z was coincidence, but I haven't traced back what the exact cause might be... I think the shortwaves are ~ over Rockies and Texas at the moment.

The solution is very sensitive to handling of multiple pieces of vorticity.

Comparisons clipped from GFS... the far southeast vorticity was creating a diffuse / dual low structure on earlier runs:

GFS_comparison.jpg.84bf14070ba3f45bd9cffd4284ab7acc.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

For those interested RPM 3Z came in much better again. Swath of 6-8 from SW CT into NE MA. 4-6 on either side of that for the rest of CT.

Thanks 4 update! Do you by any chance have a link or image? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've had enough of that.

lol I'm with you on that even though you've had more than me. Let's get at least one double digit storm for as much as SNE as possible.

Hard to think we can't pull that off the way things are looking right now. Obviously things can still change for a lot of people but it was a very good night overall. Time to finally rest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it would be more than that with banding.

For sure, just putting up the verbatim qpf for easiest run to run comparisons

This is a good system for deformation banding, maybe roughly northeast MA to between Worcester and 495, obviously will depend on where this tracks

I'm still puzzling over the 18z jump, can't be coincidence. And not characteristic of Euro to make such a big jump. I would've expected the progression of Euro solutions to be more like 12z --> 0z --> 18z 

Still think we end up warning+ most of eastern SNE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z NAM way better than 00z. Good shellacking. 

Just about to say that.  I got to bed when I am tired, I slept all afternoon yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

BOX map doesn’t look quite right based on guidance...?

449336E6-D38D-4050-80CA-878ADE6BC52D.png

They are stubbornly conservative this goes around, this is not the storm to be quiet about or conservative about.  Models show thundersnow potential across eastern MA, they also show winds in excess of 40 knots across the Cape and islands, the problem is visibility might not get low enough to issue a Blizzard Watch currently.  Potential exists for over a foot of snow from HYA westward to coastal and interior SE MA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not sure there is the instability for TSSN. Also I can't blame them for being conservative as of now., esp 95 corridor on west. 

They do pay attention to the latest 6z guidance, right?  NAM came in hotter with QPF amounts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

They do pay attention to the latest 6z guidance, right?  NAM came in hotter with QPF amounts.

That map was made before it came out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure the forecasters at BOX are monitoring this thread and are probably saying, "oh shit, Jimmy's up and the 6z NAM just bombed us, someone update the maps, stat!"

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BOX 3AM AFD:

“SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fast-moving, open-wave preference with low-mid level focus primarily within an anti-cyclonic branch of a warm-moist conveyor belt beneath support aloft brought via H3 right-rear-quadrant jet streak. Thus, greater weighting towards NAM / WRF solutions, some blending with EC. Why? Feel both the present upper OH River Valley and N Gulf impulse energy are slightly faster than global guidance has initialized. Also, the NW Atlantic remains wide open. While trends have a slower N Gulf impulse intercepted by E-Rockies lee cyclogenesis in vicinity of S New England, have lower confidence of slower, storm maturation given the synoptic pattern as of late. Again, preference to faster solutions, focus within the front-end thump however some back-peeling N/W of the precip-shield brought about via the neighboring H3 RRQ jet streak and lowering H5 heights / troughing parent with additional up- stream Pacific energy out of the Great Lakes. Non-GFS, keep the storm at or outside of the 40N / 70W benchmark on Saturday. NAM / WRF / EC solution preference. A slower, inside the benchmark solution just doesn`t feel right given recent synoptics. Not favoring a deeper grasp on the N Gulf impulse, trowaling moisture back and further N that would net higher snowfall amounts as the GFS suggests. Not like the GFS solution is being ignored, just not being weighted with this forecast. It`s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. So, altogether, when taking marginal thermal fields as is exhibited by forecast model thicknesses yielding a wintry mix and/or heavier, wet snow closer to the coast, out across the Cape and Islands, with lower snow to liquid ratios as a result, have generally a 3 to 6" event over RI and Southeast MA, up into the Boston-metro, while 1 to 3" over the Cape and Islands, as well as N/W of the 3 to 6" swath, while northwest MA sees a coating up to 1". WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY posted over portions of E/SE MA where confidence is highest of 3 to 6" amounts. This region coinciding with colder air and H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation N/E of the coastal low. Other things that come to mind: Will there be accumulation issues with a heavier, wet snow? Perhaps with marginal lapse rates and 2m temperatures around freezing during the daytime? Any issues with heavy, wet snow on tree limbs especially as we approach 6-inches? Think once we gain more confidence on snowfall amounts that we can answer these questions.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.