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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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22 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

This place cracks me up.  Everyone else is upping totals. I come on here and its all doom an gloom. I dont get it

We're all mental, screwed up and thoroughly enjoy cold, white objects falling from the sky and watching them accumulate which is a big thrill. It's a real dear diary moment... 

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So just ignore the scorching bl that all guidance has to start for several hours? Better hope it is fast and furious to cool the column else alot is going to be wasted on mixing in and around I95 that's all I'm saying. And yeah I know not to buy the hrrr at face value. Still raising an eyebrow tho
Just last year we have seen how rates can over come marginal temps. And that was late March. It's only March 3rd and there is snow already on the ground. You said it could under perform for many like you were taking it for face value. I agree with you it's tricky for the I95 crew.

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Here's my general thoughts. Mostly in line with other outlets. Modeling seems to be converging on the I-95 corridor but I feel that's about 30 miles too far south. Time will tell.

gfs_2019-03-02-12Z_000_43.333_281.467_38.111_289.333_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.thumb.png.f6b3828d82ace5713ee5418a53baecb7.png

 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So just ignore the scorching bl that all guidance has to start for several hours? Better hope it is fast and furious to cool the column else alot is going to be wasted on mixing in and around I95 that's all I'm saying. And yeah I know not to buy the hrrr at face value. Still raising an eyebrow tho

Yeah I was just looking at the BL issues and I am admittedly a bit..... worried I guess?

Dews are not low, we won't wet bulb down below freezing:

nam3km_Td2m_neus_27.png

On the 3k NAM, omega and snow growth is rather meager when things first roll through. Will precip be heavy enough to dynamically cool the column?

nam3km_2019030218_fh29_sounding_40.01N_75_06W.thumb.png.4cd7c649c32d44e380a715cb1ee78255.png

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For right now I'm feeling pretty good about a few inches of snow for most of the area. Precip moves in around 4 pm and will probably start as rain or a rain snow mix and quickly change to snow. Surface temps are warm but 850's are fine until a warm nose tries to poke into extreme SE PA around 11 pm. We've had accumulating snow here with the surface never getting below 33F. I'm thinking that most of the snow down this way will fall between 6 pm and 11 pm, after that we'll see. This is based on 18z runs. Could be a nice snowy Sunday evening :-).

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Here's my general thoughts. Mostly in line with other outlets. Modeling seems to be converging on the I-95 corridor but I feel that's about 30 miles too far south. Time will tell.

gfs_2019-03-02-12Z_000_43.333_281.467_38.111_289.333_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.thumb.png.f6b3828d82ace5713ee5418a53baecb7.png

 

Yeah I was just looking at the BL issues and I am admittedly a bit..... worried I guess?

Dews are not low, we won't wet bulb down below freezing:

nam3km_Td2m_neus_27.png

On the 3k NAM, omega and snow growth is rather meager when things first roll through. Will precip be heavy enough to dynamically cool the column?

nam3km_2019030218_fh29_sounding_40.01N_75_06W.thumb.png.4cd7c649c32d44e380a715cb1ee78255.png

Great post. This was/is my point....we r relying on strong dynamics but this really isnt an exploding low pressure with lots of dynamics associated with it. There is a nice batch of fronto lift moving thru so we'll see. 

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Latest hrrr is even a later turnover from rain to snow for Eastern PA. There is a real struggle in cooling the column and some models are backing off on heavy rates quite a bit thus the rainy looks. We need the heavy rates which is what the models showing the higher snow amounts have. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Holding at 3-6" here.

hrrr_asnow_neus_34.png

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh20-25.gif

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Latest hrrr is even a later turnover from rain to snow for Eastern PA. There is a real struggle in cooling the column and some models are backing off on heavy rates quite a bit thus the rainy looks. We need the heavy rates which is what the models showing the higher snow amounts have. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Holding at 3-6" here.

hrrr_asnow_neus_34.png

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh20-25.gif

This storm is one where I have no idea what the area will get. I could see anywhere from 2" to 8-9", lol.

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2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

A little elevation may help a bit with this one....not unusual with March systems....

The one plus is it will occur at night. That's always a positive for late season systems. 

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Notable 'warmer' look on the 3k NAM vs the 12k. I95 area even back to central bucks near me struggles to get to 3". Delayed change from rain to snow, lighter rates, and a warm tongue after 10pm tomorrow with sleet. Not the greatest trends today for extreme SE PA. 

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21 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

This storm is one where I have no idea what the area will get. I could see anywhere from 2" to 8-9", lol.

I think you could narrow it to 5" to 8", you're kind of in the bullseye. (For now, lol).

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Notable 'warmer' look on the 3k NAM vs the 12k. I95 area even back to central bucks near me struggles to get to 3". Delayed change from rain to snow, lighter rates, and a warm tongue after 10pm tomorrow with sleet. Not the greatest trends today for extreme SE PA. 

Ralph, you're going to get 4" at least - embrace it!

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10 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Really! Nice try, using the maps that show the least, lol.

Guess we should use the maps that show the most? All of the mesos shifted N and warmer. I still expect the RGEM to keep weenie hope alive but the RGEM is not a good model in these situations. In honesty lower precip rates, longer delay for changeover, last minute shifting N and W, and ratios of 8:1 at best are not giving a regionwide big hit. Far N and W burbs should do fine. In and around I95 and immediate burbs not so much. South of the PA turnpike not so much. Thinking 1-3" South of 276 in PA and E of 476. 3-6" N of 276 and W of 202. 7" lollis Farther N and W burbs towards Q town, parts of Berks, Lehigh

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I hope some of you guys are right and my call busts horribly low. This is an extremely marginal setup with no wiggle room left and models still ticking N now at the last 24 hours. We have played this game before. We dont do marginal well in these parts at all.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Guess we should use the maps that show the most? All of the mesos shifted N and warmer. I still expect the RGEM to keep weenie hope alive but the RGEM is not a good model in these situations. In honesty lower precip rates, longer delay for changeover, last minute shifting N and W, and ratios of 8:1 at best are not giving a regionwide big hit. Far N and W burbs should do fine. In and around I95 and immediate burbs not so much. South of the PA turnpike not so much. Thinking 1-3" South of 276 in PA and E of 476. 3-6" N of 276 and W of 202. 7" lollis Farther N and W burbs towards Q town, parts of Berks, Lehigh

That puts you at 3" to 6", right?

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1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

That puts you at 3" to 6", right?

Yes havent waivered on that. Might need to cut back totals tomorrow AM. Thinking that prelim call was too aggressive possibly.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes havent waivered on that. Might need to cut back totals tomorrow AM. Thinking that prelim call was too aggressive possibly.

So you agree 4" for you is not unrealistic? I'm just rolling with this one. Yeah it could be shaky, but that storm will moving so fast there won't be time for any shenagins, lol.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes havent waivered on that. Might need to cut back totals tomorrow AM. Thinking that prelim call was too aggressive possibly.

Ralph I'm partially busting on you. I know it's the weather and nothing is guaranteed. But I think it's gonna come in hard with mod. to heavy snow from around 6 or 7 pm until 10 to midnight, once the opening rain/mix is out of the way. It's not an unrealistic scenario at all. Think positive, lol. Let your inner weenie overcome your fear.

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The RGEM is locked on, could be locked on to ineptitude who knows but the NYC guys love it

I have nothing to lose but waiting for next winter

Just saw i have a winter storm watch for 2-4" my first one here ever 

 

rgem_asnow_neus_32.png

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I don’t understand how Ardmore, PA can be under a WSW for 6 to 8 inches, but Philadelphia, PA - which is only 10 miles away - is under a WSW for only 2 to 4 inches. It makes me very nervous. Can someone help this newb out? 

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