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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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I have been down in PA visiting family the past few days and had a laugh this afternoon when a local met said, "Winds will be VERY strong on Sunday night. Expect 15 to 30 mph winds."

I must have gotten accustomed to living in the Great Lakes this past decade...because that is merely a breeze!

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On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect
snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon.
This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario,
though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County,
as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are
expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall
enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind
convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario
will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of
lake snow.

While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to
potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and
Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like
conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing
snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to
northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow
across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly
begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night.
However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state.

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18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro still has zip for Tues/wed ..Barely even a surface reflection ...

Meanwhile the GFS/para/icon all go through southern NY State with several inches of snow..

Sticking with the winter pattern, I would go with the low moving through southern New York, and weakening as it moves through. 1 to 3 inch ordeal.

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This wind event is somewhat unprecedented. Never in my life do I remember a wind event predicted this far out, with these kind of wind speeds.  Every record event from the last 20 years was more or lesss unexpected. 

1998 derecho was a rogue storm that no one saw coming until it was on radar

1/9/08 was supposed to be a high wind event but a low topped derecho caught us off guard and took it to another level. 

3/8/17 was supposed to be windy but nowhere near apocalyptic

Any other wind storm from the last 20 years is just the typical gusts to 60 type of stuff that is fairly routine  

This is certainly unique and will be very interesting to watch unfold. If these winds don’t verify the poor nws will take it on the chin as the hype is nearly off the charts. If they do verify there will be damage like we haven’t seen in a very very long time. 

My call

kbuf - 71

kiag - 77

batavia - 75

kroc - 68

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19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This wind event is somewhat unprecedented. Never in my life do I remember a wind event predicted this far out, with these kind of wind speeds.  Every record event from the last 20 years was more or lesss unexpected. 

1998 derecho was a rogue storm that no one saw coming until it was on radar

1/9/08 was supposed to be a high wind event but a low topped derecho caught us off guard and took it to another level. 

3/8/17 was supposed to be windy but nowhere near apocalyptic

Any other wind storm from the last 20 years is just the typical gusts to 60 type of stuff that is fairly routine  

This is certainly unique and will be very interesting to watch unfold. If these winds don’t verify the poor nws will take it on the chin as the hype is nearly off the charts. If they do verify there will be damage like we haven’t seen in a very very long time. 

My call

kbuf - 71

kiag - 77

batavia - 75

kroc - 68

Great points. My call:

 

KBUF 76 mph

KIAG 79 mph

Batavia 81 mph

KROC 72 mph

 

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I lost three trees (all across my driveway) in the 17 event. I’ll be making a fresh batch of two cycle mix today. On the plus side I’m just starting to get low on firewood :)

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My house kept power during the Labor Day derecho in 98 so we’ll see how we make out this time. At least I had a backup sump pump installed last summer that runs off my municipal water so I shouldn’t have to worry about my basement flooding again. 

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This is funny but a serious situation for sure!

/O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most
  persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6
  inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as
  high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow
  with whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts
  and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill
  region.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times.
  Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at
  times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning
  commute.

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

This is funny but a serious situation for sure!

/O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most
  persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6
  inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as
  high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow
  with whiteout conditions.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts
  and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill
  region.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times.
  Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at
  times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning
  commute.

I was just about to post that. Even if snowfall amounts aren’t huge anything that falls will be carried by the strong winds. I could see that definitely causing ground blizzard conditions. 

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One after another lol

You would think one of these would kick off some good lake effect on a westerly fetch, if we can get the Lp to stay put for a little..

Both American LR models have a good deal of lake effect potential in the distant future..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

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Far be it for me to tell people how to post but as a casual peruser of this subforum I have to say the complaining is getting old...

Besides there’s some exciting weather right on our doorstep.

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