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Upstate/Eastern New York

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It’s getting to the time of the year where these minor events aren’t even worth the effort. The increasing sun angle will melt a couple of inches of snow as soon as it comes out. We still have 3-4 weeks to realistically get something big so that’s what I’m living for. 

29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

There is your storm on the euro ..

download - 2019-02-23T133717.147.png


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Yeah i agree but at this point i'm just trying to pad the stats :lol:

I don't care how much stays on the ground lol..

I'm more of a snow falling guy then snowdepth..;)

80% of the fun for me is the chase..

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34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Damn Matt can't even win when it comes to wind :P


ndfd_max_gust_newyork_72 (1).png

Haha...I don't know what the deal has been with this area...except for so much SW wind.

I have no desire to experience high wind events though...not my weather passion...too much destruction.

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Model guidance has been incredibly consistent on this event over the
past 4-5 days, and continues to result in a high confidence forecast
for high impact wind gusts. Peak wind gusts are likely to reach 75
mph on the lake plains northeast of the lakes. This includes the
Lake Erie shore extending northeast across the Niagara Frontier to
Rochester, and also in Jefferson County northeast of Lake Ontario.
Winds will not be quite as strong farther inland away from the lake
plains, but still easily warning criteria with peak gusts of up to
65 mph across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier,
western Finger Lakes, and points southeast of Lake Ontario to Lewis
County. The strongest winds on the lake plains will be Sunday
afternoon when wind direction is WSW. The strongest winds from the
interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes and southeast of
Lake Ontario will be Sunday night when winds become due westerly.

Winds of this magnitude will produce widespread power outages that
may last for days, along with extensive tree and powerline damage.
Property damage to shingles and siding is likely, and buildings
under construction and older buildings that are starting to
deteriorate may experience significant damage.


A wing of warm advection will reach the western Southern Tier late
this afternoon, then spread across the rest of the area this
evening. This initial area of isentropic upglide will produce a few
scattered rain showers. East of Lake Ontario, temperatures should
rise above freezing prior to the arrival of showers, with any
freezing rain risk farther east in northern NY.

Another stronger push of warm advection and isentropic upglide,
along with DPVA ahead of the strong trough, will spread across the
eastern Great Lakes late tonight and continue through early Sunday
morning. This will produce more widespread rain showers across the
region, with rainfall amounts of around a quarter inch common, a
little higher in upslope areas.

The warm advection rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast
Sunday morning. There will likely be another narrow band of rain
showers right along the surface cold front later in the day.


The temperature trend over the next 36 hours will be decidedly non-
diurnal. Temperatures tonight will rise steadily in a strong warm
advection regime ahead of the system. Temperatures will start this
evening in the 30s, then rise well into the 40s by late tonight.
Highs will occur Sunday morning just ahead of the cold front,
reaching at least the mid to upper 50s in most areas. A few 60
degree readings cannot be ruled out in downslope areas on the lake
plains. Behind the cold front, temperatures will nose dive in the
afternoon, reaching the lower 30s by early evening across Western NY
and upper 30s across central NY and east of Lake Ontario. Lows
Sunday night will be in the low to mid 20s in most areas.


Strong cold advection behind the system will allow lake induced
equilibrium levels to rise to around 8K feet over Lake Erie and 10K
feet over Lake Ontario Sunday night. Ample synoptic scale moisture
will be found in the wrap around regime of the system as the main
mid level trough crosses the region.

Off Lake Ontario...

Temperatures aloft will get cold enough to support a lake response
by early Sunday evening. Initial WSW boundary layer flow will focus
the early part of the event across Jefferson County and the northern
Tug Hill. Boundary layer flow will veer westerly overnight into
early Monday morning, focusing the majority of the intensifying lake
response on the Tug Hill. Upslope flow will play an important role
in enhancing snowfall amounts, with true warning criteria snow
likely confined to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau.

The very strong winds will be a much bigger concern than actual
snowfall amounts. Winds gusting to over 60 mph Sunday night will
likely produce blizzard conditions in and near lake effect snow
bands and in the upslope zone of the Tug Hill Plateau. The only
question is whether the lake effect bands can be persistent enough
in any one area to produce blizzard conditions for 3 or more
continuous hours, which is part of the criteria. The upslope flow into
the Tug Hill should keep the snow fairly persistent across the
higher terrain even if the pure lake effect snow bands are being
fractured by the strong winds. With this in mind, the Winter Storm
Watch east of Lake Ontario has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.
The worst conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region, including
southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and western Lewis counties.

Off Lake Erie...

The lake currently has extensive ice cover, but the very strong
winds will likely result in the fracturing of the ice field with
plenty of openings developing. In addition, conditions are favorable
for an upstream connection to Lake Michigan banding, along with some
enhancement from synoptic scale convergence near the base of the mid
level trough. The snow amounts will be contingent on the idea that
breaks will develop in the ice field, but that seems like a
reasonable assumption given the strength of the wind event.

The airmass will become cold enough to support a lake response by
mid to late afternoon Sunday. Boundary layer flow is initially WSW,
which will bring some snow to most of Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming
counties. When there is ice on the lake, lake effect snow often
develops farther north than one would expect for a given wind
direction, because an opening in the ice will often develop ENE of
Long Point. Overnight Sunday night boundary layer flow will veer
more westerly, carrying the lake effect snow showers into Southern
Erie, Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier.

Snowfall amounts may reach 1-3 inches in parts of Northern Erie and
Genesee counties, with 3-5 inches across the higher terrain well
south of Buffalo and Batavia into the Chautauqua Ridge. The snow
amounts are not the issue however, significant blowing and drifting
snow will be the main concern. With this in mind, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for late Sunday through early Monday for
the blowing snow. Conditions may approach blizzard at times, but the
weaker lake response will likely not allow these conditions to last
for very long at any given location.

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High pressure will extend east to our area from the northern plains
on Wednesday. While this is the most consistent solution...there are
packages that depict a weak inverted trough splitting the feature.
This would result in a little snow across our region later Wednesday
and Wednesday night...but given the inconsistency with this solution
and the fact that it is somewhat of an outlier...will back off on
pops and only use slight chc 20s. Again...this is a low confidence
solution for Wednesday afternoon and night...so be sure to check
back for a more concrete forecast.

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Where have i seen this before..Hmmmm..lol

3k hates me more that matt haha

If i have learned anything this year it's congrats mexico/parish lol

Snippet from Buffalo

 lake effect snow often
develops farther north than one would expect for a given wind


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They have me just in the 4"-6" range which is exactly what the 3k shows and little less than the rgem, so probably not terrible here. 

They haven't caught on to the wnw band yet, tomorrow they will have Fulton at a foot, watch lol

Actually the map only goes till 4pm, rgem develops the band in the early afternoon hours, so we'll see..

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Cutter...WSW flow...weak West flow with nothing substantial and quick veering to the WNW...weak low a day or two later that teases...super cold night...24 hours later temp hits 50 as cutter moves in to start all over again.

Winter 2019. Bank on it.

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9 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

My house kept power during the Labor Day derecho in 98 so we’ll see how we make out this time. At least I had a backup sump pump installed last summer that runs off my municipal water so I shouldn’t have to worry about my basement flooding again. 

I was in a cabin in the southern edge of the ADKs in the forest by a pond when the Labor Day Derecho blew thru in the wee hours of the a.m.  Cabin had a bit of a basement...and we got into it...That was one impressive storm...

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1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Winds are gonna be too strong for any kind of strong band to develop, but we'll see.

Agreed. We've seen this before with high wind LES. Seems to underperform unless you are pretty far from the lake and get some elevation lift (Tug and hills S&E of SYR).

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6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Getting emails from nyseg. Expecting major widespread power outages lasting for days.

Great. ;(  Family is vacationing at Greek Peak this week so hoping we don't lose power here. Wind should be weaker here. 

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One thing in your guys favor is the wind will be dying down Monday afternoon/evening when flow become more favorable..


Windy, with a west wind 30 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. 

Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph

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As bad as the winds will be I’m really concerned about the lake shore flood potential... current forecast is for a 9-11 foot storm surge. This is impossible to model with the ice cover. Here is what canal side looks like when at 7.5-8 feet. If we hit the higher end it could get quiet scary. Also good to note at the 12’ mark canal side would be under water and the lake surge would start to flood the harbor center area and push towards downtown...


Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
652 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019


* LOCATIONS...Lake Erie shore in Erie and Chautauqua counties
and the Upper Niagara River in Erie and Niagara counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...Powerful southwest winds will gust up to
75 mph. This will result in the water level at Buffalo rising
to 9 to 11 feet above low water datum. This rise will also
break up ice on Lake Erie and result in significant ice

* TIMING...From 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie
shoreline, including the Buffalo Harbor and waterfront. If
water levels exceed 10 feet above low water datum flooding may
occur in the Old First Ward section of Buffalo and at
Canalside. Rising waters will also push ice chunks onshore,
potentially damaging structures. Ice will also get pushed
across the ice boom and into the Upper Niagara River resulting
in damage along the Upper Niagara River shoreline. The ice may
dam up at river outlets and result in flooding near river


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