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janetjanet998

TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

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No kidding!

 

My non-educated review of GFS 12Z run says bulls eye of 7-8" around central valley over the next 156 hours. Entire valley is 4"+

 

EURO 12Z says 1-3" in valley, heavier numbers more middle/west TN

 

I work as a Geotechnical Consultant and we have enough land slides and sinkholes as it is... come on, give us a break lol!!! 

 

Doing this job for over 10 years now, I have never seen the amount of massive deep seated on-going slope failures we have at this point (really beginning since last March 2019). Check your bedding planes, soil properties, vegetation growth patterns, and slope inclinations before you buy a home or property!!! My heart has been broken countless times helping poor folks trying to repair geotechnical issues costing 5-10 times what the home costs.

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No doubt the boundary stalls out over the Valley somewhere,wouldnt pin point any area this far out

BNA

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB27
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
SUN 12Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08             1.2     545     133    
SUN 18Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08            15.3     546     135    
MON 00Z 02-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08            12.9     548     135    
MON 06Z 02-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08            10.2     549     134    
MON 12Z 02-MAR  0.29    0.24    0.00    0.38             8.4     550     134    
MON 18Z 02-MAR  0.08    0.07    0.00    0.46            13.3     552     135    
TUE 00Z 03-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.47            13.7     554     136    
TUE 06Z 03-MAR  0.07    0.05    0.00    0.53            13.6     557     137    
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  0.30    0.09    0.00    0.83            15.0     559     137    
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  0.44    0.12    0.00    1.27            16.1     560     137    
WED 00Z 04-MAR  0.60    0.16    0.00    1.88            16.3     564     138    
WED 06Z 04-MAR  0.75    0.24    0.00    2.63            17.3     566     138    
WED 12Z 04-MAR  1.62    0.35    0.00    4.25            12.7     563     137    
WED 18Z 04-MAR  2.49    0.33    0.00    6.74            11.2     563     135    
THU 00Z 05-MAR  0.39    0.05    0.00    7.13             5.8     541     131    
THU 06Z 05-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    7.14             3.4     530     131    
THU 12Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    7.14             1.2     536     131    
THU 18Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    7.14            13.5     543     133    
FRI 00Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    7.14            11.1     547     135    
FRI 06Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    7.14             8.0     547     135    
FRI 12Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    7.14             4.5     548     134    

 

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Mem

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB27
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
SUN 12Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.06             7.7     548     135    
SUN 18Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.06            15.8     548     135    
MON 00Z 02-MAR  0.02    0.02    0.00    0.08            15.3     552     136    
MON 06Z 02-MAR  0.24    0.24    0.00    0.32            12.6     552     135    
MON 12Z 02-MAR  0.26    0.25    0.00    0.58            11.7     554     136    
MON 18Z 02-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.59            18.2     556     137    
TUE 00Z 03-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.60            17.9     559     138    
TUE 06Z 03-MAR  0.11    0.02    0.00    0.71            17.0     561     138    
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  0.56    0.38    0.00    1.27            16.3     560     137    
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  0.60    0.26    0.00    1.88            17.6     562     138    
WED 00Z 04-MAR  0.95    0.58    0.00    2.82            17.2     566     138    
WED 06Z 04-MAR  2.21    1.13    0.00    5.03            13.9     564     137    
WED 12Z 04-MAR  0.48    0.12    0.00    5.50            12.9     560     136    
WED 18Z 04-MAR  0.44    0.11    0.00    5.94             9.3     549     133    
THU 00Z 05-MAR  0.09    0.01    0.00    6.03             7.6     537     133    
THU 06Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             7.1     539     132    
THU 12Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             2.4     544     133    
THU 18Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            15.7     548     134    
FRI 00Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            13.2     551     135    
FRI 06Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            10.1     552     136    
FRI 12Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             6.9     553     135    

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12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Mem

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB27
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
SUN 12Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.06             7.7     548     135    
SUN 18Z 01-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.06            15.8     548     135    
MON 00Z 02-MAR  0.02    0.02    0.00    0.08            15.3     552     136    
MON 06Z 02-MAR  0.24    0.24    0.00    0.32            12.6     552     135    
MON 12Z 02-MAR  0.26    0.25    0.00    0.58            11.7     554     136    
MON 18Z 02-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.59            18.2     556     137    
TUE 00Z 03-MAR  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.60            17.9     559     138    
TUE 06Z 03-MAR  0.11    0.02    0.00    0.71            17.0     561     138    
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  0.56    0.38    0.00    1.27            16.3     560     137    
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  0.60    0.26    0.00    1.88            17.6     562     138    
WED 00Z 04-MAR  0.95    0.58    0.00    2.82            17.2     566     138    
WED 06Z 04-MAR  2.21    1.13    0.00    5.03            13.9     564     137    
WED 12Z 04-MAR  0.48    0.12    0.00    5.50            12.9     560     136    
WED 18Z 04-MAR  0.44    0.11    0.00    5.94             9.3     549     133    
THU 00Z 05-MAR  0.09    0.01    0.00    6.03             7.6     537     133    
THU 06Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             7.1     539     132    
THU 12Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             2.4     544     133    
THU 18Z 05-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            15.7     548     134    
FRI 00Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            13.2     551     135    
FRI 06Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03            10.1     552     136    
FRI 12Z 06-MAR  0.00    0.00    0.00    6.03             6.9     553     135    

One thing is for sure though, I bet that TVA/Corps of Engineers is stepping up the flows from the area holding facilities in advance of this system next week. 

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ECMWF backed off severe a touch, but seems to have shifted the highest QPF into the heart of TVA. Only good news is that high QPF isn't as high as shown 12 hours ago elsewhere.

On the severe side, several EPS ensemble members are more like the previous runs. Low press into the Midwest and severe here. EC Op is frontal overrunning.

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Slow Euro or faster GFS ?Who will win? Euro dont show much of any flooding as it crashed the 300mb jet through the Valley while the GFS is into the OV.Could be the Euro doing its typical thing holding back energy to the west,who knows

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models (14).png

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models (13).png

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Last time the Euro won this battle. It's less flooding and less severe. This case I'll punt my love of severe and pray for lower QPF.

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Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now.  I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level.  

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With the rain yesterday and storms overnight into this morning, had just over 3 inches of rainfall in the last 30 hours.  So off to a fast start for March. 22.67 inches for 2020. 

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There are a couple of islands in the Holston that we only see when TVA has the generators off.  That summer with the drought(where G-burg burned) those islands had grass growing on them.  LOL.  They rarely had water over them as the feeder streams were so low - even generation schedules rarely flooded them.  Past two years, I rarely see those islands at all now.   If anything, I have seen some high water marks in those areas that I have never seen before, usually just after big thunderstorms.  Might be an adventure today!  We got hammered with heavy rain yesterday.

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