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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Seems to have become smoother spread but lost the pinks and purples it had running the M/D. 

06z Euro is actually better for those above I-70 to the MD/PA line and worse north of that. 

south of 70 isn't much different than 00z run, precip expanded south and east a little

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6z euro 10-1 

41BADE20-4EFC-4F76-A1D9-762EFB420CB3.thumb.png.9f41390c032107e884f188db945dfaed.png

snow starts in DC around 6am. Flips to ice between 12-1 in DC. Northeast MD holds on until 3pm.  Problem is it’s still sending the heavy precip to the NW. 

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13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I will make a bold prediction that @das will once again report the highest region totals from his backyard. He will only be watching via webcam, of course. 

Ha. Since it’s a rare mid-week storm, I’ll be there. If the snow comes in heavy enough Tuesday night, my conference/speaking engagement in DC Wednesday might be postponed and I get to stay in Clarksburg all day. I’ll be wearing my PJ’s inside-out, sleeping with a spoon under my pillow and flushing 20+ ice cubes. 

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First time the euro has 6 inched my area. It is starting to come south slightly. For me the bottom line is there is a ton of juice heading into a really good cad. We all know how we usually do in these setups. Nice thump for everyone then we lose the column se to NW. Still think my 5-8 call area wide is good.

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This 12z 3k NAM run will capture the duration of the storm (or the part worth focusing on) so I’m interested to see what it does with temps and precip types.

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21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I like the trends overall. It looks like we finally have cold air that has some cajones. 

This is more a bootleg cold.  Today’s temps will be 40s/50s so there isn’t a lot of antecedent cold. We just happpen to have a cold high pushing in at just the right time as moisture screams in. This is a needle threading a needle type storm

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This setup is a little more sketchy than some of our best slug of precip into CAD IMO. I’d feel better to see a more sw - ne movement of the precip than is being shown. I think temps are really good but would feel better with a train if moisture coming from the sw than I am with a northward moving finger of precip passing through.

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