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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 with your galoshes on !!!!!  :thumbsup:

 keep your umbrella, raincoat, and canoe handy 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.thumb.png.2be8d4f0f7fdd4b33a0d20e299f7544c.png

good for

making ice balls

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

As does everything else.

7-8 is the timeframe on every model

 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

7-8 is the timeframe on every model

 

I think the snow comes in around 5 in the city. You can see the radar is ahead of schedule 

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1 minute ago, WallexWall said:

I think the snow comes in around 5 in the city. You can see the radar is ahead of schedule 

Radar does look good. The earlier the better for our area.

Even if it doesn't, 1-3 inches of snow is a good bet along with sleet.

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1 minute ago, WallexWall said:

I think the snow comes in around 5 in the city. You can see the radar is ahead of schedule 

Thats really what the city needs to see any kind of decent accumulating snow, get the precip before sunrise, unfortunately almost all models have it coming in around 8 am but sometimes it does come in faster than modeled in these situations

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thats really what the city needs to see any kind of decent accumulating snow, get the precip before sunrise, unfortunately almost all models have it coming in around 8 am but sometimes it does come in faster than modeled in these situations

Cue “I’m singing in the rain”

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4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Cue “I’m singing in the rain”

That's later tomorrow evening

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13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dry air to overcome, 7 is the call right now.

 

Both Nams, Rgem, Gem Lam and HRRR don’t have any real precip until 9-11am now for NYC and LI.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

That's later tomorrow evening

I’m sorry, I don’t mean to be a [email protected]&$.   I just don’t see how this stays snow.  As I’ve said before, I’ve seen this movie before.  I would be absolutely shocked if there are 2 inches of snow on the ground before the sleet begins.  

I’m thinking that on Long Island that the transition to rain is almost immediate.  

Tuesday night there will be talk of a “warm layer” that wasn’t modeled and also the ”ocean influence” on the eastern winds.  

Tmw will be miserable, I just don’t think it will be snowy 

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7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I’m sorry, I don’t mean to be a [email protected]&$.   I just don’t see how this stays snow.  As I’ve said before, I’ve seen this movie before.  I would be absolutely shocked if there are 2 inches of snow on the ground before the sleet begins.  

I’m thinking that on Long Island that the transition to rain is almost immediate.  

Tuesday night there will be talk of a “warm layer” that wasn’t modeled and also the ”ocean influence” on the eastern winds.  

Tmw will be miserable, I just don’t think it will be snowy 

It obviously won't be too snowy. Question has become how sleety?

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10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I’m sorry, I don’t mean to be a [email protected]&$.   I just don’t see how this stays snow.  As I’ve said before, I’ve seen this movie before.  I would be absolutely shocked if there are 2 inches of snow on the ground before the sleet begins.  

I’m thinking that on Long Island that the transition to rain is almost immediate.  

Tuesday night there will be talk of a “warm layer” that wasn’t modeled and also the ”ocean influence” on the eastern winds.  

Tmw will be miserable, I just don’t think it will be snowy 

Snowy?

Snow to sleet then rain was always the forecast

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Snowy?

Snow to sleet then rain was always the forecast

You have been touting snow-5 inches, then 4.  I have repeatedly voiced my skepticism about the amount of snow.  You are the one who is been talking about snow-

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

You have been touting snow-5 inches, then 4.  I have repeatedly voiced my skepticism about the amount of snow.  You are the one who is been talking about snow-

All I have been doing is posting the model runs

What are you talking about?

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Just now, Snow88 said:

All I have been doing is posting the model runs

What are you talking about?

I don’t think we -NYC eastward -see any appreciable snow.  

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2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I don’t think we -NYC eastward -see any appreciable snow.  

No but we will see sleet and that’s bad enough 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

No but we will see sleet and that’s bad enough 

You may see some sleet, I think though this becomes a big rain storm.   The sleet will probably be short lived

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

The question is will schools be closed?   Delayed openings?

 

Just now, 495weatherguy said:

The question is will schools be closed?   Delayed openings?

Well mine are closed Rutgers Newark is closed New Brunswick delayed 

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2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

You may see some sleet, I think though this becomes a big rain storm.   The sleet will probably be short lived

Could be. Seen it both ways prolonged sleet and quick rain 

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3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

You may see some sleet, I think though this becomes a big rain storm.   The sleet will probably be short lived

Temps will be in the 20s at the start of this storm even for the city I believe. It's February and the CAD means business. If i'm wrong I'm wrong but think people are underestimating the frozen impact, it will rain and rain a lot but after a total mess tomorrow morning/early afternoon  

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Temps will be in the 20s at the start of this storm even for the city I believe. It's February and the CAD means business. If i'm wrong I'm wrong but think people are underestimating the frozen impact, it will rain and rain a lot but after a total mess tomorrow morning/early afternoon  

I don’t think the CAD makes much of a difference East of NYC.   I’m expecting a mess tmw, but mostly due to copious amounts of rain

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Just now, 495weatherguy said:

I don’t think the CAD makes much of a difference East of NYC.   I’m expecting a mess tmw, but mostly due to copious amounts of rain

In terms of east of the city think as usual low impact event South Shore of LI higher impact event for the north shore. Given that the 850 warming is basically south to north with this, it's possible the north shore of LI does better than the city since I think latitude will matter more than longitude with this setup. 

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Last call

NYC Snow 1-3 inches, Several hours of sleet, than rain.  (Some ZR possible for upper Manhattan/Bronx)

South Shore LI Snow up to an inch than brief sleet than rain

North Shore LI Snow 2-4 inches, Few hours of sleet, than rain

NE NJ/Westchester/Rockland/Coastal CT Snow 2-4 inches, several hours of sleet, then some ZR (moderate icing possible) then rain

NW NJ/Orange/Putnam/Interior CT- Snow 3-6 inches, then Sleet/ZR (significant icing likely) change to plain rain brief or not at all 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What about the people who say its going to be nothing or just rain? Thats just not true also. The fact is most people are going to see snow, sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It depends where you live on this forum that will determine just how much you will get. Nobody is saying this is going to be a blizzard but there will be snow regardless if it is going to be washed away. The City is forecast to get 3 inches and my area in HV is forecast to get 6. Should people not talk about that?

I know everyone on here loves the snow.  I used to love snow as much as anyone.   Now things are different.  Doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy this site, the people who post or their forecasts. 

Im definitely anti snow now.  No argument from me.  And I do enjoy a good snowstorm, prefer weekend storms though.   I don’t think this storm is going to deliver though.  I’ve lived through countless storms like these on Long Island.  Rain seems to win these scenarios

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

i don't mind that. What I mind is when I am looking outside and it is not doing what people here are telling me it's doing. 

It's weather, shit happens. Thermal profiles have been tough this winter. Again, it depends on where you live. 

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