Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I didnt get what he was saying either. What i do like seeing is that animation is a sustained LP in the Aleutian region throughout the run. We may finally get a decent ridge position if it is right.

that was partly my take as well.  I'd roll w/ split flow and ridge axis like that in feb any time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro monthly updated though for some reason. Looks ok 

94B6CB5A-5D96-491C-9F59-9CA65CFD5AB6.gif.67fffa1a3b5d05da2c0d438da0c32898.gif

 

The CFSv2 does well with the MJO forecasts in genera , so this should inspire some confidence. 

@psuhoffman what would be very valuable is to see what the NAO has done in Feb months in which the MJO reaches phases 8 and 1 in a high orbit .

 

741183110_CFSO_phase_full(5).gif.709df5821c7e7f833b7273d880f44857.gif

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm considering taking my shovel to the shop for a tune up. That covers my analysis in one sentence. 

I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Cold and snowy month is looking likely with the mjo going into phase 8. GfS and gfs para show that also the euro showed some good snows coming up next week

Colder and POTENTIALLY snowier

FYP  :P

Yeah, it looks like we may be starting to see our way outta this mess.  Climo is still on our side, and it doesnt take too much going right for better opps.  Lets get the pac right and see what we can do w/ it as this cutter stuff has been the death of what could have been a great period.  I'll take JB's split flow and zonalish look and see what we can gin up from there.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, pasnownut said:

Colder and POTENTIALLY snowier

FYP  :P

Yeah, it looks like we may be starting to see our way outta this mess.  Climo is still on our side, and it doesnt take too much going right for better opps.  Lets get the pac right and see what we can do w/ it as this cutter stuff has been the death of what could have been a great period.  I'll take JB's split flow and zonalish look and see what we can gin up from there.

I’d watch that wave Sunday night also for a 1-3 incher

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman watch the JB video it has value .  LOL  I say that about 3 times per year. 80 % value 20 % hype ,  overall I like the update.

Shows the phase 8 in Feb with a high amp. To me those  higher orbits look like they have more high impact snowfall potential , where phase 8 closer to a low orbit have very cold but maybe not as stormy ? Make your own assumptions after looking at a few samples i the video.

and yes the data set is a few, but overall the message has value.  Cold coming. snow yeah, thats coming too as long as we get the looks the models show for the MJO and the decline in the SOI due to the complete reversal of pressure patterns in the far Westerm Pac.        

And wow,  I forgot that in the SOI dive of Jan 2009 it went to minus 50's to -74 . Thats nuts !  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will. 

yeah thats pleny enough reason for guarded optimism.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. There used to be a site that had them saved by enso. Can’t find it. Maybe it’s gone. How do you set those plots by mjo?  I don’t see it as an option. 

I forget if MJO option is there, but I've played around w/ it infrequently as I'm not quite the data collection guru that some of you are.  Reanalysis is not my strong suit (if I even have a strong suit).  I have anther site at home that you can also plug in diff. variables/years etc.  Will see if I can drum it up for you tonight.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...