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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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What went wrong (so far)

Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast

SOI-mostly positive

AO/NAO-mostly positive

MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

What went wrong (so far)

Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast

SOI-mostly positive

AO/NAO-mostly positive

MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter

Time to move on. Got drawn in this morning, but at least these storm potentials are falling apart more quickly now so we don't waste days tracking rain or clouds.

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What went wrong (so far)

Strong Pac Jet into the West Coast

SOI-mostly positive

AO/NAO-mostly positive

MJO-mostly in bad phases of 4/5/6 for the bulk of the winter

The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month

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Everyone should see some light snow Monday with a dusting to an inch areawide.

The 2nd wave is still up in the air.

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The pattern took a long term turn for the worst on Thanksgiving week, right after the 11/15 storm. By the last week of November you saw the PAC jet and the Pacific overall was going to be a real big problem and it hasn’t quit since. Looks like the AO is going to go super positive starting next week. That’s probably going to be the nail in the coffin for the rest of February, next week is already mid month

People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop.

 

Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April.

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52 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That's only because of the small sample. If you look at the few events, it does seem they are followed by less than stellar winters in recent decades.

I agree with Brian but the sample is small

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone should see some light snow Monday with a dusting to an inch areawide.

The 2nd wave is still up in the air.

the 2nd wave is coming in as a massive cutter on the GFS-it will vaporize the dusting from Monday

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Just now, Snow88 said:

People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop.

 

Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April.

people have been talking about an SOI crash for a month...hasn't happened

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

the 2nd wave is coming in as a massive cutter on the GFS-it will vaporize the dusting from Monday

It is going to be a cutter but the transfer is still yet to be determined.

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8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs looks better

Tries to do a secondary but fails. All rain after a little snow.

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The mjo of the gefs is insane. It's literally all the charts in phase 8 near mid month.

Something is gotta give. Usually with that amplitude , the AO and PNA gets better.

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

People in the mid Atlantic subforum and on other forums are talking about how the SOI is going to crash and maybe a great pattern will develop.

 

Too early to throw in the towel since it can still snow in April.

We’ve been hearing about SOI crashes and cold, snowy patterns on the way for months, 3 months in a row to be exact. This is the boy who cried wolf now. The pattern looks real bad right through late February. FOOD FOR THOUGHT: 

 

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18z GFS and 18z PARA couldn’t be more opposite of each other. Absolutely effin horrible. Ef this winter right in the A..

A5253C3A-B1FF-4392-9923-F4D5AD3B46F6.gif

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At least para didn’t change course like gfs did. Don’t forget gfs flunked the November 15th snowstorm. I’ll shut up now 

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I wish @Isotherm would post. I wonder what his thoughts are. I haven’t seen a post from him in a while. He’s been solid (minus the snowfall so far) for the winter.

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Long time lurker, but newbie poster with a question here: how much of a correlation is there between the MJO and AO/NAO?  It seems that with models in increasing agreement on a P8 MJO by midmonth that AO (at the very least) should respond by going negative?  What other factors could allow a +AO during a P8 MJO?

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I love it!!! Canceling winter in early feb, with a extremely high amplitude MJO wave into 8/1!!!

you guys rock!

The same people canceled winter last year in February.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The same people canceled winter last year in February.

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. 

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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. 

My sentiments exactly. But I still wouldn't mind March or April snow. Put it this way, when I got the snowblower out for last April's snow, people laughed about it." It will be gone by this afternoon, why bother?"

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6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Para has a widespread blizzard here with 2-3 feet of snow from Virginia to Boston!

It's a dream scenario

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