1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you aren't getting rain. I'm even skeptical for interior SNE. GFS is also the northwest outlier on the secondary frontal redevelopment. 

Garbage

[NorEastermass128]

For educational purposes, what larger scale features are porking us southern folks this year.  I could understand the futility in 11-12 with the one eyed pig in AK.  I can't find the same ratter indicator for this winter.  Just bad luck and regression to the mean?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

For educational purposes, what larger scale features are porking us southern folks this year.  I could understand the futility in 11-12 with the one eyed pig in AK.  I can't find the same ratter indicator for this winter.  Just bad luck and regression to the mean?

There is no ratter indicator. You gave me the 12/1 to 1/26 H5 layout and told me to extrapolate over a whole season, I would have forecast normal to slightly above normal snows. However the timing has been awful with every system save for mid Novie.....the cold has ben there, but without the NAO, we need timing to break right, and it just has not.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is no ratter indicator. You gave me the 12/1 to 1/26 H5 layout and told me to extrapolate over a whole season, I would have forecast normal to slightly above normal snows. However the timing has been awful with every system save for mid Novie.....the cold has ben there, but without the NAO, we need timing to break right, and it just has not.

That's what makes it all the more frustrating.  

What kind of margin of error has this pattern allowed for things to break right or thread the needle?  I feel like we've needed each s/w to pass through something like an astronomical keyhole for us to even sniff an event all winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That's what makes it all the more frustrating.  

What kind of margin of error has this pattern allowed for things to break right or thread the needle?  I feel like we've needed each s/w to pass through something like an astronomical keyhole for us to even sniff an event all winter.

We don't have a ton of margin for error because the NAO blocking has not been there, but its not been a 2007 or 1995, either.  Given the latter, usually we would have some SWs flex at just the right time to avail themselves of the antecedent airmass, but it just hasn't happen. Up until 1/20, I think it was a combo of bad luck and the SSW screwing with things that left less snowfall than my outlook would imply, however from this week forward, my efforts are more culpable because there still isn't an NAO developing yet. That is a miss on my part....the only thing that was beforehand is the SSW....which I think manifested as a net detriment to us. We didn't need it....I think it focused blocking on the other side of the globe, and actually provided some deconstructive interference to Atlantic blocking....but that is admittedly speculation of my part. However I also said that it didn't matter which side of the globe it focuses on, as it would just mean less bitter cold, and that looks to have been wrong. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That's what makes it all the more frustrating.  

What kind of margin of error has this pattern allowed for things to break right or thread the needle?  I feel like we've needed each s/w to pass through something like an astronomical keyhole for us to even sniff an event all winter.

Gradient winter so far we are on the wrong side, it happens 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We don't have a ton of margin for error because the NAO blocking has not been there, but its not been a 2007 or 1995, either.  Given the latter, usually we would have some SWs flex at just the right time to avail themselves of the antecedent airmass, but it just hasn't happen. Up until 1/20, I think it was a combo of bad luck and the SSW screwing with things that left less snowfall than my outlook would imply, however from this week forward, my efforts are more culpable because there still isn't an NAO developing yet. That is a miss on my part....the only thing that was beforehand is the SSW....which I think manifested as a net detriment to us. We didn't need it....I think it focused blocking on the other side of the globe, and actually provided some deconstructive interference to Atlantic blocking....but that is admittedly speculation of my part. However I also said that it didn't matter which side of the globe it focuses on, as it would just mean less bitter cold, and that looks to have been wrong.

 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Gradient winter so far we are on the wrong side, it happens 

Thanks.

We'll see how the next 6 weeks shake out.  Either way, it'll all be sorted out soon enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Having the SSW focus on the other side of the globe didn't doom us...it left us less margin for error because it created a more hostile envt. for NAO assist IMO....but I never thought we roll double zero's this many times consecutively when left to the mercy of synoptic timing and nuances.

Still time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If things don't turn around...this will be a good "fraud" test for those like Raindancewx, who championed analogs like 2006 and 1994. I'll be waiting eagerly for them to claim absolute victory due snowfall numbers being accurate for the wrong reason. I know people like Scott remember that Cohen did that in 2015, even though we did it without the NAO. I slammed that point home in the most mortem...even though I ostensibly nailed the season, I missed on the NAO/AO...thus the call wasn't an "A" in my book. I think I gave myself like a "B".

Not there yet, tough, and I still don't think we will get to that point.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If things don't turn around...this will be a good "fraud" test for those like Raindancewx, who championed analogs like 2006 and 1994. I'll be waiting eagerly for them to claim absolute victory due snowfall numbers being accurate for the wrong reason. I know people like Scott remember that Cohen did that in 2015, even though we did it without the NAO. I slammed that point home in the most mortem...even though I ostensibly nailed the season, I missed on the NAO/AO...thus the call wasn't an "A" in my book. I think I gave myself like a "B".

Not there yet, tough, and I still don't think we will get to that point.

Post the H5 pattern for those years vs this one. That will be a mic drop moment. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Post the H5 pattern for those years vs this one. That will be a mic drop moment. 

I will.

I know rain dance.......he'd pick out some arbitrary three week period that was identical all three seasons (1995, 2007, 2018) in Albequerque, and says that proves his point.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will if the shut down ends.

I know rain dance.......he'd pick out some arbitrary three week period that was identical all three seasons (1995, 2007, 2018) in Albequerque, and says that proves his point.

Lol...shut down ended (for now).  I understand what you’re saying but if you were forecasting for $$ you’d get A for verification if the sensible wx mimics your thoughts.  Even if it’s right for the wrong g reasons.

[powderfreak]

The GGEM shows what a weaker system would look like...further east but mainly disjointed.  A 3-6" type snowfall for the interior. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Lol...shut down ended (for now).  I understand what you’re saying but if you were forecasting for $$ you’d get A for verification if the sensible wx mimics your thoughts.  Even if it’s right for the wrong g reasons.

Ok...want another mic drop? Post a temp anomaly chart for 2007 and 2018...is temperature sensible enough for you?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...shut down ended (for now).  I understand what you’re saying but if you were forecasting for $$ you’d get A for verification if the sensible wx mimics your thoughts.  Even if it’s right for the wrong g reasons.

Yeah it's true from that standpoint.  People don't care how you are right, just that you are.  If forecasting for DOT and you told them the winter would be below normal snow, budget accordingly, and then they used much less plowing resources like you told them they would.... they don't give a sh*t about the H5 pattern.  Just that your call was right.

I get it completely what Ray is saying but that's the nature of forecasting for a business.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I've actually been too warm in January....dead-nuts on for December.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ok...want another mic drop? Post a temp anomaly chart for 2007 and 2018...is temperature sensible enough for you?

Agree but is that what raindance said in his forecast?  I don’t think either of those are terrible analogs even if it’s not nearly as warm this year.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The GGEM shows what a weaker system would look like...further east but mainly disjointed.  A 3-6" type snowfall for the interior. 

You can toss the GGEM because it’s way different back across the Gulf states on Tuesday with the FROPA/wave.  Nothing is anywhere near as progressive on 12Z guidance so far so odds are it’s not going to handle anything downstream from there accurately 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's true from that standpoint.  People don't care how you are right, just that you are.  If forecasting for DOT and you told them the winter would be below normal snow, budget accordingly, and then they used much less plowing resources like you told them they would.... they don't give a sh*t about the H5 pattern.  Just that your call was right.

Energy sector cares about temps, and and 1994 and 2006 were atrocious analogs in that regard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Agree but is that what raindance said in his forecast?  I don’t think either of those are terrible analogs even if it’s not nearly as warm this year l.

The AO was exotically positive.....going to have to disagree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Too early to say, but if nothing changes, then he will have had the better outlook...I'll leave it at that.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The AO was exotically positive.....going to have to disagree.

But the warm parts of those winters had the AK pig as we did albeit short lived.  I do t think either of those years had epo lime we’ve had this year which may be the biggest difference.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too early to say, but if nothing changes, then he will have had the better outlook...I'll leave it at that.

Agree it’s too early.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, weathafella said:

But the warm parts of those winters had the AK pig as we did albeit short lived.  I do t think either of those years had epo lime we’ve had this year which may be the biggest difference.

This winter isn’t close to those.  This is the first non blowtorch winter since the 1980s to see this little snow this deep into the season.  96-97 may be close but that’s only if you count through 1/31.  February 97 was a total torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

But the warm parts of those winters had the AK pig as we did albeit short lived.  I do t think either of those years had epo lime we’ve had this year which may be the biggest difference.

I think the AO/NAO is quite a bit different, too....NAO not helpful, but not awful.

[Ginx snewx]

Lol wasn't Ray the one who coined the phrase "5h we don't live there". I mean props to him but nailing sensible weather very long term is pretty a folly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol wasn't Ray the one who coined the phrase "5h we don't live there". I mean props to him but nailing sensible weather very long term is pretty a folly.

I've been good with temps, bad with snowfall. H5 is too early..only a half season.

[ORH_wxman]

This thread is going way off topic. Take it to another thread. 

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Energy sector cares about temps, and and 1994 and 2006 were atrocious analogs in that regard.

So if those aren't the right analogs, then which ones would you use.

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too early to say, but if nothing changes, then he will have had the better outlook...I'll leave it at that.

So he may be right for the wrong reasons then. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks pretty decent for interior. Maybe advisory stuff. Warning event for CNE and NNE.