CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Wow, that's just straight nuts how it went from a Westerly event primarily a WNW event? TugHillMatt, that's just serious bad luck as Ive never seen a season without a blockbuster event at least once a season, nuts!!WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 18 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Wayne and Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. &&Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This came out of nowhere seriously as we're, or I'm usually on this or Wolfe is, heck we were and though it was a westerly event, lol, crazy for sure!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The tug will still see 8-12" but unfortunately not the crazy totals ee were once thinking, damn. I was psyched to chase as well, perhaps itll go back the other way cause ot looked damn good yesterday and I don't know how it changed that quick.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 No way the NWS has Wayne County in a Watch if they don't see at least a NE event at the least a WNW flow event so well see. I know Inwas looking forward to it but no dice, yet!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 It's real hard to sustain a WNW-NW wind flow like the one the NAM is showing as I'd expect this to fully change again, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 39 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on the Southtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morning rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this band An overachiever is overdue!!! . Yes!!! Selfishly for the Northtowns!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Not sure what wind direction this is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Latest rgem is huge hit for buffalo and especially southtowns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This LES event looks like it will be disgustingly close to my location but be largely a miss to the north. Fulton gets a foot while we get flurries, if that. Sigh. Ty may been in good shape for this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Latest rgem is huge hit for buffalo and especially southtowns Where you seeing that already? TT has been all buggy today. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Where you seeing that already? TT has been all buggy today. . Tt just load precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 And usually when KBUF sees potential and they throw up a winter storm watch Binghamton usually follows but I don't see that this time as far as Onondaga Madison and So. Cayuga so I wouldn't lose hope just yet. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest rgem is huge hit for buffalo and especially southtowns As in Williamsville with bullseye south buffalo and nearby southtowns??? I don't need to most but I don't want to be shutout either!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: As in Williamsville with bullseye south buffalo and nearby southtowns??? I don't need to most but I don't want to be shutout either!!! Bullseye is south buffalo to Boston hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 But perhaps like Max said, Fulton and I are in a prime location for this one if it comes to fruition and that's why So Cayuga and Madison aren't in it cause it's a very weird wind flow for sure and that's why I think it changes again so we'll seeSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Here is the rgem, only out to friday early afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 That map you posted Wolfie for steering winds for the lake effect was to low. 10m winds are surface winds, Lake Effect clouds are driven by either H850 or H925 or anywhere in between, thus making winds and direction the hardest variable to predictSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Here is the rgem, only out to friday early afternoon..I think that looks pretty good as Winds don't Veer until Friday evening into Saturday as that's when the winter storm watches are for, right?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Interesting part from the AFD: A band may then become quite intense Friday night along the Southern Lake Ontario shore from about Wayne County to Oswego County with snow rates in excess of 2"/hr as is often the case with increased convergence at night. There is the possibility that the band may hug Monroe County as well. These types of bands however typically remain just north of the Rochester Metro area and sometimes even have a slight concave appearance on radar. Regardless, this will probably be the most intense and interesting part of this particular lake effect event. The band should begin to weaken and move to the north on Saturday as winds back with time. Could be a surprise event for us south shore peeps...maybe even Irondequoit Dave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: And usually when KBUF sees potential and they throw up a winter storm watch Binghamton usually follows but I don't see that this time as far as Onondaga Madison and So. Cayuga so I wouldn't lose hope just yet. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk KBGM not jumping ugly yet on this. There's still a day for modelling to further work on this event...they did mention northern Oneida but were concerned about residence time...also that NAM supposedly shows band getting into Syracuse area for a time. So WTFK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 BTV for the win!!!lols only please... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bullseye is south buffalo to Boston hills Like I stated as long as there's snow in the Northtowns im good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Went from a wsw flow to “Rochester lakeshore might be the most interesting “ part of the event. Lol. Figures, as I’m going to be near the Tug. I was getting a little nervous yesterday as I have family meeting me up there and 2/hr rates would scare them. Anyhow, looks like everyone getting in on the love to an extent. Good luck boys! I’ll be checking in from the north country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Still a ways away but surprised you guys aren't talking about the potential snowstorm/historic cold that could be coming in 5-7 days. I'm not fully sold on the system yet but it definitely looks good as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 "Potential" for a nice burst of snow tom afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Still a ways away but surprised you guys aren't talking about the potential snowstorm/historic cold that could be coming in 5-7 days. I'm not fully sold on the system yet but it definitely looks good as of right now Lol that's because the GFS is down and we can't see the optics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Wow, that's just straight nuts how it went from a Westerly event primarily a WNW event? TugHillMatt, that's just serious bad luck as Ive never seen a season without a blockbuster event at least once a season, nuts!! WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 18 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Wayne and Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I move to one of the snowiest places in the eastern U.S. and I find myself saying, "Yeah right. We won't get lake effect." Lol West winds don't exist for longer than a couple hours this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I move to one of the snowiest places in the eastern U.S. and I find myself saying, "Yeah right. We won't get lake effect." Lol West winds don't exist for longer than a couple hours this winter. Lol you'll get your snows...lake Ontario never freezes so you can get lake effect well into the winter months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 NWS buffalo now is suggesting maybe enough warm air for mixed precip next Tuesday or even plain rain for a time but for consideration to continuity and climatology will keep it all snow for now. If we get another cutter after the bullshit rains today that's gonna suck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 How is your Snow pack hanging in there in Western New York? Looks like you are already down to just a few inches?!?! Had to shovel the roof today. Snow is knee deep here, so I shouldn't complain. That is still below normal depth for here though...lol Just went above freezing here...everything is layered in ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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