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gravitylover

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2019

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5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

God, if POU can get a foot, I will be thrilled.  I am expecting only 8 max with sleet as preservative on top. Oh, to be in Albany for this one.... 

That's more bullish than the nam. Hope their forecast verifies for their sake. I'm thinking along with your thoughts too. 

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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

That's more bullish than the nam. Hope their forecast verifies for their sake. I'm thinking along with your thoughts too. 

Not to mention that more snow and less ice would be easier to remove! 

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We have a tree guy coming to take down a couple of leaners this morning before the storm. One that was bad got much worse recently and is now at about 25* towards the neighbors bedroom so it has to go. I don't have time to analyze so I'll just ask, which model is initializing closest to the actual storm center? Does its solution for later look reasonable? Snow, ice, sleet, what's the plan and what's the timing?

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

We have a tree guy coming to take down a couple of leaners this morning before the storm. One that was bad got much worse recently and is now at about 25* towards the neighbors bedroom so it has to go. I don't have time to analyze so I'll just ask, which model is initializing closest to the actual storm center? Does its solution for later look reasonable? Snow, ice, sleet, what's the plan and what's the timing?

Like I just posted in the main thread, any model that cuts this up into NYS or CT for that matter is wrong. It will go ENE from NJ out toward CC. The air to the North is a brick wall of sub zero Temps pressing down. While rich with moisture, this is not a strong low. If it passes just S of NYC, you will have a freezing rain issue in Putnam after a good dump ofsome snow and a lot of Sleet. If it comes off South Jersey it would probably be a more snow/sleet deal vs freezing rain. My gut still says this tics a bit South at the end once the magnatude of the cold is realized by models that don't start with GFS

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OK gravity, Mahopac is in for....

  1. 1-4 inches with 1inch sleet and a glaze
  2. 4-8 possible, sleet and glaze
  3. uncertain..consult the magic 8 ball..

anyway, with the warming trends, do you think heavy icing threat is in play?

 

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1 minute ago, DRVTS said:

OK gravity, Mahopac is in for....

  1. 1-4 inches with 1inch sleet and a glaze
  2. 4-8 possible, sleet and glaze
  3. uncertain..consult the magic 8 ball..

anyway, with the warming trends, do you think heavy icing threat is in play?

 

I'm not feeling the warming trends. I do see some mid level warmth, always did, so expect an icy component. That worries me because after the storms and excessive wetness last year there are a lot of weak trees so I expect power problems. Usually that would just be an unpleasant hassle but with the super cold air behind this it could be dangerous. Even though I know better I keep hoping the cold air press will overwhelm the warm push and we won't see anything worse than sleet.

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1 hour ago, West Mtn NY said:

Like I just posted in the main thread, any model that cuts this up into NYS or CT for that matter is wrong. It will go ENE from NJ out toward CC. The air to the North is a brick wall of sub zero Temps pressing down. While rich with moisture, this is not a strong low. If it passes just S of NYC, you will have a freezing rain issue in Putnam after a good dump ofsome snow and a lot of Sleet. If it comes off South Jersey it would probably be a more snow/sleet deal vs freezing rain. My gut still says this tics a bit South at the end once the magnatude of the cold is realized by models that don't start with GFS

Hope you are right.  I don't want ZR.  This is looking more like an ice storm than snowstorm for the HV South of Kingston. Sucks.  

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Any guesses on first flakes. Radar looks pretty far off still.  

also, anyone know of a good "futurecast" link, like accuweather has on chanel seven?

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2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Hope you are right.  I don't want ZR.  This is looking more like an ice storm than snowstorm for the HV South of Kingston. Sucks.  

If you look at Albany, they were at 25 at 6:25 am they have dropped and leveled off at 18 with the limited daytime heating. Dews are down to 6 and still dropping. Can't see how it's not all Snow/Pl North of NB Bridge. Probably to Bear Mtn Bridge before real freezing rain issues IMO. That Arctic air is pushing down the Hudson. Albanys projected high is 25. We will see it bust. 

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6 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

If you look at Albany, they were at 25 at 6:25 am they have dropped and leveled off at 18 with the limited daytime heating. Dews are down to 6 and still dropping. Can't see how it's not all Snow/Pl North of NB Bridge. Probably to Bear Mtn Bridge before real freezing rain issues IMO. That Arctic air is pushing down the Hudson. Albanys projected high is 25. We will see it bust. 

The temps may bust but Albany was spot on if their high was projected to be 25 since they hit that. 

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30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The temps may bust but Albany was spot on if their high was projected to be 25 since they hit that. 

If you put out a forecast at 530 am and it hits it while dropping in under an hour, your forecast should have a down arrow next to it  and put the mid afternoon temp there

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Just now, West Mtn NY said:

If you put out a forecast at 530 am and it hits it while dropping in under an hour, your forecast should either have a down arrow next to it  and put the mid afternoon temp there

To make it even more confusing to the public, it looks like Albany’s high temp will go into the books as 29, not that the public will check that. 

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

To make it even more confusing to the public, it looks like Albany’s high temp will go into the books as 29, not that the public will check that. 

True. Anyway that single digit dew point air is pushing down the Hudson. Just can't see primarily a Sleet fest not big zr North of 17.

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3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Hope you are right.  I don't want ZR.  This is looking more like an ice storm than snowstorm for the HV South of Kingston. Sucks.  

What is your definition of an ice storm? I'm 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie up route 9 and I am not expecting an ice storm. NWS Albany has us for 6-10 inches total of sleet and snow and about .10 of ice. I could see where I get 6 inches of snow from say 7pm to 2-3am and then quite a bit of sleet and then some freezing rain but I believe that that ice aspect will only be max maybe .20 inch which is not an all out ice storm like you describe. 

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

It’s going to be an interesting weekend for sure. 

The other thing we have going for us is the lowest dews are to our North and NW not NE. It is in a position to keep pushing rather than be eroded by retreating to the NE as is often the case with highs up over Maine. It wouldn't take much of a last min tick SE to make this a 6-8 dump of snow followed by a few inches of Sleet to bulletproof the pack

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4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What is your definition of an ice storm? I'm 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie up route 9 and I am not expecting an ice storm. NWS Albany has us for 6-10 inches total of sleet and snow and about .10 of ice. I could see where I get 6 inches of snow from say 7pm to 2-3am and then quite a bit of sleet and then some freezing rain but I believe that that ice aspect will only be max maybe .20 inch which is not an all out ice storm like you describe. 

Well I hope you are right.  Based on warning trends, I was thinking 60% ice, 40% snow, which is why I said more ice storm than snow storm.. We shall see. 

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