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Carvers Gap

Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

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University of Kansas snags another SEC coach. Les Miles hires Chip Lindsey from Auburn. Miles received a very warm welcome at a home basketball game. KU is excited about football too!

In other news I'm way behind on the Dec. 8-10 storm thread. My thoughts have not changed and line up well with NWS offices along the route. I will read and post in the next 24 hours. Cheers!

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

University of Kansas snags another SEC coach. Les Miles hires Chip Lindsey from Auburn. Miles received a very warm welcome at a home basketball game. KU is excited about football too!

In other news I'm way behind on the Dec. 8-10 storm thread. My thoughts have not changed and line up well with NWS offices along the route. I will read and post in the next 24 hours. Cheers!

We got rid of the wrong person:axe:

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Thank You to Everyone posting here with all the insight and analysis. It is very helpful and much appreciated! May we all get an early Christmas gift with the current weather system about to come through and make it feel & look just a like a real good Tennessee Christmas!

Looking forward to reading here throughout the winter season.

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to all!


Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said:

Thank You to Everyone posting here with all the insight and analysis. It is very helpful and much appreciated! May we all get an early Christmas gift with the current weather system about to come through and make it feel & look just a like a real good Tennessee Christmas!

Looking forward to reading here throughout the winter season.

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to all!
emoji319.pngemoji951.pngemoji320.png

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I'm liking your new profile photo haha. :popcorn:

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I'll be taking a weather vacation after this one. Hopefully this wasn't the only winter storm of the season but you never know with how the last two have went.  

This event made me feel like I ran a marathon then tripped and broke my ankle when I could see the finish line.  

Some of you new folks, join in the day to day forum more. You're all appreciated when you show up.  

Blunderstorm, I hate that you got the shaft too on this one. It's tough seeing a historic event in every direction but being mainly left out.  Had a weird streak like that here in the 2006-8 time frame.  My avatar back in that time frame at Accu forums was that. Most importantly you learned something about your microclimate. We have a ton around here and I always say, know your microclimate around here. Odds are if it happened once it's gonna happen again.  

Maybe this year we can get a good slider that runs 40. It's December and the West side has two major winter events already and the far East side has one major one. That either means this winter will have plenty more potential to come or it's gonna torch in January!  I think the former is more likely.

 

Well, back to the Tennessee game. It's not making me too happy right now either but at least they are good enough to play with elite teams.  

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What a finish in the TN game.  When Williams fouled out, I didnt think they had a chance.....  I didn’t know Schofield had that kind of offensive game in him, and certainly didn’t think he had game enough to single handedly beat #1 on the road.  Great win!  This game and the Kansas game will prepare them to be ready come March.  This team has both the ability and desire to be great.... and they are really fun to watch.

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Congrats on beating Gonzaga,sure you made Jeff happy.We get Purifoy back next game after his shoe scandal suspension next game.We don't play each other until the last game of the season,not sure how that will play out.Suspect by then both teams should have a bye in the SEC tourney by then,could see some key players sit out i'd think for rest,who knows

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After watching UK’s loss to Seton Hall, I believe Auburn and UT to be the class of the SEC in 18/19. Point Guard U looked completely lost at the position yesterday. Of course, Florida will be tough as always, and Clanga will make some noise in conference play. Look out for LSU or Arkansas as a possible sleeper.

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'll be taking a weather vacation after this one. Hopefully this wasn't the only winter storm of the season but you never know with how the last two have went.  

This event made me feel like I ran a marathon then tripped and broke my ankle when I could see the finish line.  

Some of you new folks, join in the day to day forum more. You're all appreciated when you show up.  

Blunderstorm, I hate that you got the shaft too on this one. It's tough seeing a historic event in every direction but being mainly left out.  Had a weird streak like that here in the 2006-8 time frame.  My avatar back in that time frame at Accu forums was that. Most importantly you learned something about your microclimate. We have a ton around here and I always say, know your microclimate around here. Odds are if it happened once it's gonna happen again.  

Maybe this year we can get a good slider that runs 40. It's December and the West side has two major winter events already and the far East side has one major one. That either means this winter will have plenty more potential to come or it's gonna torch in January!  I think the former is more likely.

 

Well, back to the Tennessee game. It's not making me too happy right now either but at least they are good enough to play with elite teams.  

Yeah, it was really rough to watch. There is nothing more infuriating than looking out for a storm for 10 days only to be stuck in graupel for hours surrounded on all sides by heavy snow just a few miles away. With that said I at least I got some solace at the end. John, I know everyone has said it and including you yourself but to emphasize... It is just December 9th. We are still weeks away from peak climatology and weather patterns as far as I know are looking fairly favorable. We will get ours. For me I'm still weather hungry and already looking ahead. A bust won't put me down for long. The time without a 6 inch snow streak continues but it's days may be numbered.

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Blunder and John, I share your disappointment in lack of snow. Purely from a scientific standpoint, this storm was fascinating, and I believe there are valuable lessons to be learned. From an amateur/hobbyist viewpoint, such lessons are invaluable in analyzing model output and filtering through the noise. In particular, the hi-res models scored a coup with the enhancement shown in Sullivan and Hawkins Counties and the shadow shown in southern Washington, Greene, and Carter counties.

Our microclimates are simultaneously infuriating and enthralling.

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47 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Blunder and John, I share your disappointment in lack of snow. Purely from a scientific standpoint, this storm was fascinating, and I believe there are valuable lessons to be learned. From an amateur/hobbyist viewpoint, such lessons are invaluable in analyzing model output and filtering through the noise. In particular, the hi-res models scored a coup with the enhancement shown in Sullivan and Hawkins Counties and the shadow shown in southern Washington, Greene, and Carter counties.

Our microclimates are simultaneously infuriating and enthralling.

Well I would like to know the conditions that resulted in the downslope occurring. In most storms this is not an issue. In order to do that I would have analyze the storm and look for, understand, and come up with conclusions with the data. Here is the incomplete possibly flawed understanding I have of what occurred. Winds at the surface were coming from the northeast while winds further up would have been coming from the south. Beartown Mountain (part of Clinch Mountain) at a height of 4688ft presents a barrier for the lower levels of the storm almost reaching the 850mb level. From my understand the mountain took the immense amount of moisture from the storm and channeled it up it's slope causing orographic lift. This resulted in a lot of condensation that released a ton of latent heat into the air. Because the air was coming from the south at the 850 level the winds continued beyond the mountain spilling into the Clinch river valley just in time for the storm's arrival up here. This layer of warm air however critical to the amount of snow accumulation would be shallow due to the stubborn cold NE winds beneath it at the surface and only partially melt the snow crystals resulting in graupel. This I believe is a good theory as to how this occurred however numerous storms have taken a similar track and not resulted in this. This I believe in part was caused by the exact circumstances of this event which I have no idea of knowing and also in part by the warmer than modeled air the storm brought up the valley. It may not have been able to change the precipitation type here on it's own this far up but it certainly could have helped the downslope effect. Also of note early into the event I faced my 1st less influential enemy virga. I don't have any precise answer for that but my reasoning is the winds from the NE brought with it dryer air near the surface that would keep the relative humidity tempered down. In total it took almost 3 hours of moistening the atmospheric column between seeing snow on radar over me to see light precip reaching the ground from 9 to midnight. Anyway after many hours as the storm pivoted winds changed direction and the downslope effect weakened resulting in me making a full transition to snow in the late morning and early afternoon before switching back to a mix near the end of the event at the warmest time of the day when it was 33. Even with all this chaos and factors working against me I still got some snow though. Wow.

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The simple take on the downsloping: it matters most when temps are borderline. Downsloping can kill the deal at 35. At 28 it will not matter. At 32 the forecasting gets challenging. Blunderstorm post just above (packed with science) might fit in the Storm Discussion thread. Always good to keep discussing the storm. 

Congratulations Tennessee defeating Gonzaga on a neutral court! Sure Kansas is happy about it, should be #1 - unless we get penalized for close games. I just love a good game and I cheer for the Vols. Very fun watching Tennessee hit clutch 3s when it matters!

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2 hours ago, Blue Ridge said:

@nrgjeff KU or Michigan should be #1, but my money is on Duke retaking the top spot. No questioning that the Dukie bias is real this year...

When is the Duke bias NOT real???  

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6 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Did anyone on the east side of the state feel the earthquake this week????  

Woke me up in west Knox area.

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Where do you guys think would be some good places to chase snow in TN? Although I'm several years away from retirement, one of my daydreams is to be able to model watch then rent a State Park cabin or airbnb at the last minute and ride out a nice storm or NWFS event. Obviously the exact location would depend on the storm, but getting up as high as you can in elevation is almost always going to help. I'm thinking the Roan Mountain area or somewhere on the upper Plateau. If nothing else this will provide some good map study for those geography nerds among us. 

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If you're just wanting a NW flow cabin rental set up, I'd say Roan. In fact Roan Mt State Park has cabins to rent, but unsure of how they work in the winter.  There are some cabins/ homes on the road up to Carver's Gap, but I think they may be buy or sell properties. 

 Mountain City might not be a bad idea either.  You're not too far from Boone, if there was a CAD type event. You're also close enough for a short chase to Abingdon/ Marion or Roan Mt. 

If you don't mind going to VA, some place like Wise usually does good in NW flow events. 

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I put this in banter for a reason. Many things regarding the set up look very different, but the look of the energy at H5 isn't necessarily one of the more different ones: 

 

comparison photo.png

Regardless of final outcome, I'm invested now in seeing how strong this one can get. 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's hoping for an awesome January! There's already a nice fantasy storm on the Fv3 and we are in MJO phase 4, heading toward warmer phases:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh330-360.gif

May be a tad bit early for my thinking, but after looking at the Weeklies and teleconnections accompanying them...there might be a storm to begin the next round of cold in early January.  I always look for those at the beginning and ending of a pattern.  Also, nice to see that storm track being a dominant one this winter.  Hopefully that pays off once the cold returns.  Glad you shared it.  Right now, I have only been looking at ensembles.  I was looking forward to the Weeklies this run and was not disappointed.  Hopefully Jeff will add some of his thinking in the pattern thread.  

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