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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way. :P

I'd say both!

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18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Christmas day miracle?

Actually its the day after but timing is never good this far out..

GFS usually Does a good job at showing time periods of interest..

Few of the latest GFS OP runs..

 

 

 

Some work to do on those model runs...to avoid a Christmas Day gully washer. Fortunately, there's time. ;)

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15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way. :P

I like snow and all but they take it to a new level over there in that forum. I can't imagine ever feeling like they do about snow. They all need to move to Northern Canada. We've had snow cover since Mid November with a few days of green.  I just want a big LES event, last year around this time we had back to back big time events. The upcoming pattern is not good at all for snow. Pattern change has been consistent around Christmas week. I go there in a bad NE pattern for some laughter on the regular. Don't say anything though or they make fun of us because all we get is "fake snow". ^_^

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I like snow and all but they take it to a new level over there in that forum. I can't imagine ever feeling like they do about snow. They all need to move to Northern Canada. We've had snow cover since Mid November with a few days of green.  I just want a big LES event, last year around this time we had back to back big time events. The upcoming pattern is not good at all for snow. Pattern change has been consistent around Christmas week. I go there in a bad NE pattern for some laughter on the regular. Don't say anything though or they make fun of us because all we get is "fake snow".

Haha...So true!  I remember Will from Fort Kent coming to the Great Lakes sub and mocking all of us for the fake snow we get...yet he moved to Calumet, one of the lake snow champs in the country.

I really enjoy this sub and Central PA sub. I grew up there, and those folks are welcoming and laid back. They despise the Mid-Atlantic crew. Lol

 

 

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Haha...So true!  I remember Will from Fort Kent coming to the Great Lakes sub and mocking all of us for the fake snow we get...yet he moved to Calumet, one of the lake snow champs in the country.

I really enjoy this sub and Central PA sub. I grew up there, and those folks are welcoming and laid back. They despise the Mid-Atlantic crew. Lol

 

 

I'm a big fan of the Mid-Atlantic Mid/Long range discussion, also the Tennessee has some good long range forecasters surprisingly. Isotherm, OhioWeather, OSU, and LakeEffectKing are my favorite. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm a big fan of the Mid-Atlantic Mid/Long range discussion, also the Tennessee has some good long range forecasters surprisingly. Isotherm, OhioWeather, OSU, and LakeEffectKing are my favorite. 

I agree! Gotta add Raleighwx to the list. Although I think I heard he left for several reasons. :(

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It will be an understatement to say that forecast confidence will be
low during this period...as there is a very large variance in the
solutions offered by the ECMWF and many of the GEFS ensembles. This
presents a HUGE forecast problem for our region...as the two main
lines of `thinking` include a prolonged period of `rainy` weather
versus a rather short duration of nuisance pcpn. Have continued to
shave back on pops from continuity...which is the solution that is
more in line with the more trusted ECMWF. It would otherwise be
futile to get into details of an otherwise complicated and wide
ranging forecast...so will only add that there is the likelihood
that our temperatures will average above normal. Stay tuned
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