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November discussion


weathafella

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They struggled this season too...probably even  moreso. But still...does seem like some support for them..especially since EPS started to head that way on the end of the run. I guess we shall see. 

I thought I saw somewhere that the EURO has not had a good handle on the MJO and the phases it has and will be heading toward I’m not sure what is injected into each weekly run they are run what twice a week? I know I have asked before but does anyone have a link that might break down the MJO and it’s influence on the weather pattern?  Something weenie friendly!

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44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ve been on many not this autumn.   I don’t think there’s much addition of flights this time of year.

This week’s boost in flights is one area in which flights have been expanded; already, extra capacity has already been added

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/grantmartin/2018/11/22/need-a-last-minute-thanksgiving-flight-check-american-airlines-and-southwest/amp/

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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

With climo mid 40s for a high on 12/1 it’s not so unusual....

True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding.

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11 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

I thought I saw somewhere that the EURO has not had a good handle on the MJO and the phases it has and will be heading toward I’m not sure what is injected into each weekly run they are run what twice a week? I know I have asked before but does anyone have a link that might break down the MJO and it’s influence on the weather pattern?  Something weenie friendly!

It Seems like the MJO is moving into a phase that would allow for lower heights out west. It's really not uncommon at all to see in December. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

An AK vortex with a western US trough is pretty anamolous though. It should be either or in the LR right?

You don't want a massive trough from AK to LAX. But, sometimes you get lower heights in AK and then it moves down through Canada into western US or the GOAK. If a dateline ridge were to pop or some higher heights near Greenland, it would help with an all out furnace.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Every good winter has breaks. Wire to wire doesn't mean all snow and cold for months. Every wire to wire winter had breaks. It's those 4+ week breaks that can cost the wire to wire branding of a season.

If the pack melts mid season, even if it takes 3 days of ulta dews...it’s no longer a wire to wire to many’s eyes.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding.

It will probably  be a decent month, but nothing to remember four years from now..

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You don't want a massive trough from AK to LAX. But, sometimes you get lower heights in AK and then it moves down through Canada into western US or the GOAK. If a dateline ridge were to pop or some higher heights near Greenland, it would help with an all out furnace.

Yea, I think AK low will be transient if it develops...I don't think it will become a prevalent feature this season.

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Listen guys, let's try to relax.  I looked at many of the analogs with what this weak El Nino favors.  First, December overall can range from 5-6" to 10-11" for the Boston area especially Logan International.  The real fun doesn't start until very late December into January troughout the winter.  Even the historical weak el Ninos don't show their cards until later.  So let's not go overboard.  Winter hasn't started yet at all.  What we have all now and seen is a bonus.B)

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding.

Lol so so sensitive. 2002 2003 was the closest thing to wire to wire you can get. I had snow cover minus 6 days mid Dec from Nov 27 to March 17th, pretty sure interior ran the gamut. Of course excepting AEMATT

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think AK low will be transient if it develops...I don't think it will become a prevalent feature this season.

Its absolutely transient in the EPS 46 days , FWIW 2m temps BN and snowfall AN next 5 weeks. The 10 day period everyone is freaking out about is BN temp and BN precip.  

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20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True. The big dec calls starting to fade slowly every run though. I’m on board for a big winter (before ginxy and the acatt crowd start slinging dry mud at me) but it may not get the wire to wire 4 months of blissful snowflakes some are demanding.

Thats kind of a conundrum ya got going on there. Too late blooming Miller Bs for you yet you are having a big winter. Lake effect?

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats kind of a conundrum ya got going on there. Too late blooming Miller Bs for you yet you are having a big winter. Lake effect?

I said most tracks will be close by this winter not outside the bm where only se zones get to play tongue hockey with each other. IF the B’s develop late, then it favors interior (cne & nne). Big winter for most but breaks here and there. Glad we finally got my thoughts straightened out. You going big dec to mar, wire to wire, acatt record breaking deep snows to your weenie. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I said most tracks will be close by this winter not outside the bm where only se zones get to play tongue hockey with each other. IF the B’s develop late, then it favors interior (cne & nne). Big winter for most but breaks here and there. Glad we finally got my thoughts straightened out. You going big dec to mar, wire to wire, acatt record breaking deep snows to your weenie. 

There will be thaws, always are. Like the Grinch for Christmas the 3rd week of Jan is thaw week 75% of the time

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