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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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Ended with 5.75" so all in all a decent little snow. Kids really enjoyed it and our husky puppies who just turned 8 weeks, really love it, as well as their parents of course. Looks like just south of i70 could see another couple of inches to bring most of the page to 4-6". Really looking forward to next weekends potential. Enjoy your snow guys.

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29 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Here in Bellbrook.....Southeast Dayton area....we have been pummled by the band from the upper low now for several hours. Up to 10 inches.....and still coming down. What a way to break out of the slump....bring on more!!!!!

 

 

Thats awesome, I was waiting for someone underneath that radar blob to check in:thumbsup:

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44 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Here in Bellbrook.....Southeast Dayton area....we have been pummled by the band from the upper low now for several hours. Up to 10 inches.....and still coming down. What a way to break out of the slump....bring on more!!!!!

 

P1010684.JPG

Ditto 10" IMBY!  The way radar looks we'll be closing in on a foot this morning!

20190113_084754_sm.jpg

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Wow, I don't know who does the AFD for ILN but they are NEVER bullish on anything....especially this far out.   Kinda getting the cart before the horse by not even mentioning rain.:unsure:

The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are
in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture
and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track
places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy
snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the
circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the
possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind
chills.
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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Wow, I don't know who does the AFD for ILN but they are NEVER bullish on anything....especially this far out.   Kinda getting the cart before the horse by not even mentioning rain.:unsure:


The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are
in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture
and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track
places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy
snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the
circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the
possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind
chills.

Just riding one or two Euro OP runs? Idk, but yesterday's storm was weakening and/or x-fering it's energy as it came towards OH. Next week's appears to be a stronger wave that's actually getting amped as it hits IN/OH. Could be vastly different outcomes for ILN's region.

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45 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Wow, I don't know who does the AFD for ILN but they are NEVER bullish on anything....especially this far out.   Kinda getting the cart before the horse by not even mentioning rain.:unsure:


The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are
in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture
and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track
places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy
snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the
circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the
possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind
chills.

LOL, exactly what I was thinking!  Doesn't a good number of the models for this coming weekend have the low going right over Ohio i.e. tons of front end cold rain then big cold wave with very little snow?

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Did you see it also has an app runner hour 300?   Haven't seen this kind of snow on snow potential since 2010.

Yup. Lots to look forward to after a boring extended pattern. Ma nature is making up for lost time.

Although, I'm actually kind of worried about suppression for the weekend system.

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2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Yup. Lots to look forward to after a boring extended pattern. Ma nature is making up for lost time.

Although, I'm actually kind of worried about suppression for the weekend system.

I think as of now, suppression is a bigger threat than wound up and warm,  60/40.  But of course that could all be different by the 00z runs.

I'd also watch the wed/thurs weak system for a possible light accum.

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00z euro bumped north, but has some interesting results that remind me of some of the local craziness of the Dec'04 winter storm.     For instance, per the euro, northern Franklin County gets 16" of snow, southern Franklin County gets 6" plus some sort of frozen slop.  Delaware on north getting close to the 20" mark...Fayette, Fairfield, south probably a massive icestorm.  Of course it's one of many runs and bumps to come, but still an interesting snapshot.

Probably won't know confidently until thursday 00z where this is likely to go and whether it's likely rain, ice, snow, or the combo platter.

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

00z euro bumped north, but has some interesting results that remind me of some of the local craziness of the Dec'04 winter storm.     For instance, per the euro, northern Franklin County gets 16" of snow, southern Franklin County gets 6" plus some sort of frozen slop.  Delaware on north getting close to the 20" mark...Fayette, Fairfield, south probably a massive icestorm.  Of course it's one of many runs and bumps to come, but still an interesting snapshot.

Probably won't know confidently until thursday 00z where this is likely to go and whether it's likely rain, ice, snow, or the combo platter.

Would it also be a massive icestorm from Dayton to Indy?

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we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome.    Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh.     Icon looks similar with 15" amounts.   Gfs not as sexy but still very nice.  Uk came in line with gfs.  GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the coupe of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks).    Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees.

No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table.   I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler.   

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome.    Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh.     Icon looks similar with 15" amounts.   Gfs not as sexy but still very nice.  Uk came in line with gfs.  GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the couple of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks).    Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees.

No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table.   I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler.   

Yea, good suite of runs for us. Ice an issue just to our south per the Euro. Also, it shows a crushing ice storm for NYC. My God.

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