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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

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EPS depict the concerns I had going into the LR....neg NAO retrogrades and develops into a mid lat ridge centered near the Miss river then progresses  into a quasi SE Ridge with trof developing out West. Of course this isn't the be all end all for winter....probably just means we wait a little later into the month for a pattern reload which isn't necessarily a terrible thing. There is plenty of cold air building across the top which if the strat PV consolidation and progs hold any weight spell a bitter cold outbreak on our side of the N hemisphere somewhere around the 3rd week of Dec. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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Glancing at the overnight op models and LR ens basically status quo for this time of year as we go forward thru about the 2nd week of Dec. I realize and dont ever really expect much wintry weather before Christmas usually but what really concerns me is that when the NAO goes negative on the ops and ens we are still ending up with cutters and storms heading to our N and W. Maybe this is something that will change as we move further along in time and we can get redevelopment farther S and E...not sure. Just noting that these looks arent exactly working out yet timing-wise ie when the PAC looks good the ATL looks bad and vice versa. I'm not sure one or the other will do it for us durung this Nino year. We *probably* are going to need both sides working in tandem. With that said tho it is funny how we have had more frozen past 2 years during mediocre patterns and have basically had nothing to show besides cold temps during 'epic' teleconnection indices. I guess those epic looks are more for producing KU storms which goes to show just how difficult they are to produce.

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It is a ways out there but a stretch of AN temp days looking more and more likely into early December. Beach day anyone? Would rather see this now than in January but certainly doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

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For balance, the GFS family is faster to knock down the SE ridge thus more seasonal during the same time period so *maybe* this is a case of the Euro holding energy back in the SW and Plains and pumping that Eastern ridge in response (in error/bias?). Unsure if this was ever fixed with the Euro upgrades or not so just thinking out loud. 

As others have said....volatile pattern. Could be quite the roller coaster ride as we move thru December. 

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Yeah I think we might actually torch the first week of December. The blocking diminishes, Pacific is hostile, and the SE ridge kicks up. But I think after a pattern reset we SHOULD be back in business by December 12th and on.

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Wow the temperature here has gone up 10 degrees in the last 2 hours, from 30 to 40F. Feels almost balmy out. The overnight low was 23F.

Up to 44F here as of 12:10pm. Still have snow piles/mounds in parking lots..

Accu-weather super-mega-ultra-most reliable long range throws up a bone for Christmas Eve:

ce.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Up to 44F here as of 12:10pm. Still have snow piles/mounds in parking lots..

Accu-weather super-mega-ultra-most reliable long range throws up a bone for Christmas Eve:

ce.jpg

Still have some snow piles here too, although they might be gone in 2 or 3 days with the warmth and heavy rain in the forecast. I'll take snow and ice on Christmas Eve, thanks.

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I'm just gonna stop talking and let the models sort themselves out lol. Pattern recognition > models and right now the models are struggling mightily. If the latest GFS is right, we head into a fairly classic -EPO pattern heading into December. 

gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

I'd like to reiterate what I did way back before the winter started - A favorable Pacific is almost always more welcomed than a favorable Atlantic.

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Haven't been paying attention the past few hours, just looked at the rain gauge and 1.75" of rain since mid afternoon. Looked at the radar and no wonder. That's 8.15" for November and counting. Yikes!

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Select rainfall totals through 9 pm:

Allentown: 0.80"; YTD: 58.76" (4th wettest year)
Atlantic City: 0.80"; YTD: 59.07" (3rd wettest year)
Baltimore: 1.68"; YTD: 64.86" (1st wettest year)
Harrisburg: 1.35"; 60.93" (2nd wettest year)
Philadelphia: 1.13"; YTD: 53.36" (6th wettest year)
Reading: 1.32"; YTD: 62.71" (1st wettest year)
Wilmington, DE: 1.84"; YTD: 53.04" (10th wettest year)

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Atlantic City picked up 1.30" rain in the past hour and 2.11" for the storm. As a result, Atlantic City has now reached 60.00" annual precipitation for the 4th time on record.

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4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast.

I thought that as well..it's kinda winding up and spinning off the coast it appears.

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15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Maybe just me but the raindrops are abnormally large.

Raining like hell now...ponding galore on the roadways.

If only one of us had an audio spectrograph mass disdrometer, that would tell us the rain drop size! 

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11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast.

Yeah just looked my first thought it was tropical

 

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14 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

If only one of us had an audio spectrograph mass disdrometer, that would tell us the rain drop size! 

I found one for about 1300$. Not in the budget at the moment though. 

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