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Roger Smith

June 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

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I hope you're enjoying a relaxing Memorial Day weekend, but don't forget when it's over to enter the June temperature forecast contest. I will post reminders in regional threads on May 30th. 

The contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Good luck. 

(RJay if you read this, can we unpin April and May if we pin this? Thanks very much for your help). 

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.8     1.0      0.9          0.7      0.5     0.8        1.0      1.3     0.8

NYC Metro Subforum

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.8    -1.4    -1.3        -0.4    -0.8     1.8        4.8     3.0     0.4

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Table of forecasts June 2018

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

wxdude64 ____ M A _______ +2.8 _+2.2 _+2.6 ___ +1.1 _+1.9 _+2.4 ___ +4.1 _+3.1 _+0.8

dmillz25 ______ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___ +3.0 _+1.5 _+1.5

BKViking _____ NYC _______ +2.5 _+1.4 _+0.7 ___ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 ___ +2.6 _+1.8 _+1.8

hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______+2.4 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___ +2.8 _+1.3 _+2.5 ___ +3.6 _+2.9 _+1.2

Stebo _______GL/OV ______ +2.2 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +2.9 _+1.1 _--1.5

RJay _________ NYC _______+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 

jaxjagman _____ TNV ______+1.8 _+1.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.4 _+1.7 _+2.1 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.3

wxallannj ______ NYC ______+1.3 _+0.9 _+0.3 ___ +2.2 _+0.4 _+2.3 ___ +3.2 _+1.9 _--0.5

 

___ Consensus ____________ +1.3 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.2 _+1.8 ___ +2.9 _+2.0 _+0.7

so_whats_happening

____________PA/NY (-10%)_+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +1.7 _+2.2 _+0.7

Tom __________ PHL ______+1.2 _+0.6 _--0.2 ___ +2.9 _+1.2 _+2.6 ___ +2.4 _+2.3 _--0.3

Scotty Lightning _ PHL ______+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

DonSutherland.1 _NYC ______+0.8 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ +0.7 _+0.5 _+0.8 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+0.8

Orangeburgwx ___ SE _(-2%)_+0.7 _--0.3 _--0.7 ___ +0.1 _+0.4 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+1.4 _--0.2

Roger Smith ____ C+W _____+0.5 _+0.1 _--0.3 ___ --0.5 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___ +2.3 _+2.0 __ 0.0

___ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _______ M A ______--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.3 ___ --0.4 _--0.8 _+1.8 ___ +4.8 _+3.0 _+0.4

_______________________________________________________________________

color codes for highest and lowest forecasts, Normal is coolest for IAH, DEN and PHX. 

 

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Anomaly tracker with an update on seasonal max values to date ... ATL has no report for 2nd, hoping this will be available eventually. There are no reports for any nearby locations, so I estimated +6 from Chattanooga, TN which had a +7 anomaly. The six days available at ATL reported +2.5 so I boosted that to +3.0. (the missing data had not been added by 14th, so reported 2.7 is adjusted to 2.8). 

Seasonal max to date values are updated whenever possible (just changing a few now on 21st). 

 

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Seasonal max to date _________ 95 __ 93 __ 92 _____ 97 __ 93 __ 98 ______105 __ 111 __ 88

June 1-7 anomaly ____________+0.7 _--1.5 _--3.8 ___+0.4 _+3.0 _+4.6 ____+8.2 _+3.3 _+1.4

June 1-14 anomaly ____________0.0 _--1.0 _--1.7 ___+0.9 _+2.8 _+4.2 ____+8.9 _+3.8 _--0.4

June 1-21 anomaly ___________+1.4 _+0.7 _--0.1 ___+2.6 _+3.2 _+2.5 ____+6.3 _+1.5 _+2.4

June 1-24 anomaly ___________+0.9 _+0.1 _--0.7 ___+1.9 _+3.0 _+2.6 ____+5.2 _+1.5 _+2.4

June 1-28 anomaly ___________+0.8 _--0.2 _--0.8 ___+1.9 _+2.6 _+2.4 ____+5.4 _+1.6 _+1.9

 

predicted anomaly 14th (NWS)__+1.2 __0.0 _--1.0 ___+2.7 _+3.0 _+3.3 ____+7.5 _+3.0 _+0.7

predicted anomaly 21st (NWS)__+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+3.1 _+4.2 _+3.8 ____+7.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

predicted anomaly 28th (NWS)__+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ____+5.2 _+1.5 _+1.8

 

predicted anomaly 24th (GFS) __+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.3 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+0.2

predicted anomaly 30th (GFS) __+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___+2.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 ____+5.0 _+2.5 _+1.5

updated on 22nd (GFS 29-30) __+0.7 _+0.2 _--0.3 ___+2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____+5.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

 

updated on 25th (NWS 25-30) __+1.2 _+0.2 _--0.3 ___+2.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ____+6.0 _+1.5 _+1.5

___ final June anomalies ______ +1.0_+0.2_--0.1___+2.6_+2.5_+2.5____+5.0 _+1.4_+1.7

Notes:

The average accuracy for NWS forecasts 8th to 14th was moderate, the average error being 1.0 deg. 

This improved to 0.8 deg for the period 15th to 21st. 

The average accuracy of the combined NWS-GFS (as per RJS) 16d forecast for 24th was a very good average error of 0.6, and with SEA out by 2.2, the average of the other eight locations was closer to 0.4 deg. (score using our system would be 790/900). 

Staying with the recent provisionals after looking at forecasts for 29th-30th although ATL may drop closer to +2.5 (but still no report for 2nd in the CF6) which could add 10 points to all scores, meanwhile the verification for 28th (7 day NWS) was very good, average error only 0.4 deg.

Final report will be final anomalies, seasonal max updates can always occur and probably will for eastern cities if forecasts verify. 

(July 1st 15z _ Anomalies are now posted and scores updated. See final line of table above. Confirmed anomalies are in bold type. ATL inserted a value (+5) for the previously missing 2nd in their CF6.  

 

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Final scoring June 2018

 ... scoring range is unusually small in June ...

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

BKViking _____ NYC _______ 70 _ 76 _ 84 __ 230 ___ 94 _ 92 _ 86 __ 272 ___502___ 52 _ 92 _ 98 __ 242 ____ 744

Tom __________ PHL ______96 _ 92 _ 98 __ 286 ___ 94 _ 74 _ 98 __ 266 ___552___ 48 _ 82 _ 60 __ 190 ____ 742

dmillz25 ______ NYC _______70 _ 74 _ 78 __ 222 ___ 88 _ 90 _ 80 __ 258 ___480___ 60 _ 98 _ 96 __ 254____ 734

 

___ Consensus ____________94 _ 84 _ 80 __ 258 ___ 88 _ 74 _ 86 __ 248 ___506___ 58 _ 88 _ 80 __ 226____ 732

 

wxallannj _____ NYC _______94 _ 86 _ 92 __ 272 ___ 92 _ 58 _ 96 __ 246 ___518___ 64 _ 90 _ 56 __ 210 ____ 728

RJay _________ NYC _______80 _ 64 _ 58 __ 202 ___ 92 _ 90 _ 90 __ 272 ___474__100_ 58 _ 84 __ 242 ____ 716 

jaxjagman _____ TNV ______84 _ 68 _ 64 __ 216 ___ 96 _ 84 _ 92 __ 272 ___488___ 60 _ 58 _ 92 __ 210 ____ 698

hudsonvalley21 _ NYC ______72 _ 54 _ 66 __ 192 ___ 96 _ 76 _100 __272 ___464___ 72 _ 70 _ 90 __ 232 ____ 696

Stebo _______GL/OV ______ 76 _ 74 _ 74 __ 224 ___ 98 _ 94 _ 70 __ 262 ___486___ 58 _ 94 _ 36 __ 188 ____ 674

Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____100_ 94_ 98__ 292 ___ 58 _ 70 _ 70 __ 198 ___490___ 10 _ 92 _ 76 __ 178 ____ 668

wxdude64 ____ M A _______ 64 _ 60 _ 46 __ 170 ___ 70 _ 88 _ 98 __ 256 ___426___ 82 _ 66 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 656

DonSutherland.1 _NYC _____ 96 _ 84 _ 80 __ 260 ___ 62 _ 60 _ 66 __ 188 ___448___ 20 _ 98_ 82 __ 200 ____ 648

Roger Smith ____ C+W _____90 _ 98_ 96 __ 284 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 74 __ 160 ___444___ 46 _ 88 _ 66 __ 200 ____ 644

Orangeburgwx ___SE _(-2%)_92**88**86**_266 ___ 49*_ 57*_71*__177 ___443___ 37*_98**61*__ 196 ____ 639

so_whats_happening _PA/NY_96 _ 84 _ 74 __ 254 ___ 66 _ 72 _ 92 __ 230 ___484___ 34 _ 84 _ 80 __ 198 _682

____________ (-10%) _____ 86 _ 76 _ 67 __ 229 ___ 59 _ 65 _ 83 __ 207 ___436___ 31 _ 76 _ 72 __ 179 ____ 615

RodneyS _______ M A ______64 _ 68 _ 76 __ 208 ___ 40 _ 34 _ 86 __ 160 ___368___ 96 _ 68 _ 74 __ 238 ____ 606

 

___ Normal _______________80 _ 96 _ 98 __ 274 ___ 48 _ 50 _ 50 __ 148 ___422___ 00 _ 72 _ 66 __ 138 ____ 560

____________________________________________________________________________________________

* or ** show reduced scores of 1 or 2 for small late penalties -- larger late penalties are tabulated in separate lines.

 

Regional Rumble -- Final scoring June 2018

 

Region ___________________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTAL 

 

NYC _______________________ 272 ______ 272 ______ 254 _______ 798

PHL ________________________292 ______ 266 ______ 190 _______ 748

___ Consensus ______________ 258 ______ 248 ______ 226 _______ 732

Mid-Atlantic _________________ 208 ______ 256 ______ 238 _______ 702

TN Valley ___________________ 216 ______ 272 ______ 210 _______ 698

GL/OV ______________________226 ______ 262 ______ 188 _______ 676

Central + Western ____________284 ______ 160 ______ 200 _______ 644

Southeast ___________________266 ______ 177 ______ 196 _______ 639

PA/NY ______________________229 ______ 207 ______ 179 _______ 615

___ Normal _________________ 274 ______ 148 ______ 138 _______ 560

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--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - June 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

 ... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July).

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________392 _392 _408 ___1192 ____ 280 _364 _218 ____ 862 ___ 2054 __2*3*2 03*1 .2.1 __ MAY

hudsonvalley21 _____ 301 _304 _314 ____ 919 ____ 239 _345 _375 ____ 959 ___ 1878 ___ 000 001 .0.1

so_whats_happening _251 _295 _354 ____ 900 ____ 302 _341 _314 ____ 957 ___ 1857 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

jaxjagman _________ 304 _278 _346 ____ 928 ____ 260 _354 _300 ____ 914 ___ 1842 ___ 001 000 .0.1

DonSutherland.1 ___  332 _326 _348 ____1006 ____ 251 _328 _257 ____ 836 ___ 1842 ___ 000.100 .0.0

wxdude64 _________ 332 _321 _352 ____1005 ____ 256 _321 _252 ____ 829 ___ 1834 ___ 110 000 .1.0

 

___Consensus ______ 301 _303 _340 ____ 944 ____ 251 _322 _273 ____ 846 ___ 1790 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

wxallannj __________ 296 _328 _344 ____ 968 ____ 262 _262 _293 ____ 817 ___ 1785 ___ 000 001

Scotty Lightning (SD) _317 _301 _390 ___ 1008 ____ 285 _273 _219 ____ 777 ___ 1785 ___ 101 100 .1.1

BKViking ___________287 _321 _354 ____ 962 ____ 221 _313 _281 ____ 815 ___ 1777 ___ 000 000 .0.1

RJay ______________262 _306 _325 ____ 893 ____ 209 _342 _311 ____ 862 ___ 1755 ___ 011 001 .1.1 __ APR

Stebo _____________ 258 _266 _320 ____ 842 ____ 275 _342 _292 ____ 909 ___ 1751 ___ 000 111 .0.0

 

___Normal _________314 _313 _383 ____1010 ____ 294 _271 _169 ____ 734 ___ 1744 ___ 001 101 .0.0

 

Tom ______________ 297 _305 _349 ____ 951 ____ 219 _321 _233 ____ 773 ___ 1724 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN

dmillz25 ___________ 247 _221 _258 ____ 726 ____ 272 _314 _284 ____ 870 ___ 1596 ___ 000 010 .0.0

RodneyS ___________276 _274 _306 ____ 856 ____ 213 _264 _252 ____ 729 ___ 1585 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR

mappy (5/6) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(5/6)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

Mercurial (2/6) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/6)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/6) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (1)_066 _080 _080 ____ 226 ____ 045 _066 _092 ____ 203 ____ 429 ___ 110 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/6) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/6) missed March to June, Orangeburgwx (5/6) missed January,

... mappy (5/6) missed June, and H2OTown_wx (3/6) missed April, May, June.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 272 _ 418 _ 422 ____ 1112 __________ 0 1 2 __ Apr ______ 2897 (= 2)

BKViking _______________276 _ 396 _ 407 _____1079 __________ 0 0 1 ____________ 2856 (= 4) __ JUN

RodneyS_______________ 332 _ 400 _ 302 _____1034 __________ 1 1 1 __May ______ 2619 (=12) __ MAR, APR

DonSutherland.1 ________ 272 _ 370 _ 357 _____ 999 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jan _______2841 (= 5)

__ Consensus __________ 274 _ 378 _ 346 ______998 __________ 0 1 0 _____________2788 (= 7)

hudsonvalley21 _________ 292 _ 321 _ 371 _____ 984 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2862 (= 3)

wxallannj ______________ 272 _ 398 _ 301 _____ 971 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2756 (= 8)

Roger Smith ____________286 _ 356 _ 328 _____ 970 __________ 2 0 0 __ Jan _______3024 (= 1) __ MAY

Tom __________________ 295 _ 362 _ 308 _____ 965 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2689 (=11) 

so_whats_happening _____257 _ 383 _ 311 _____ 951 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2808 (= 6) __ FEB

RJay __________________277 _ 314 _ 356 _____ 947 __________ 2 1 0 _____________ 2702 (=10)

wxdude64 _____________ 297 _ 304 _ 324 _____ 925 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2759 (= 7)

__Normal ______________236 _ 322 _ 360 _____ 918 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2662 (=12) __ FEB

dmillz25 _______________ 225 _ 367 _ 318 _____ 910 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 2506 (=13)

jaxjagman _____________ 232 _ 318 _ 349 _____ 899 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2741 (= 9)

Orangeburgwx (5/6)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15)

Stebo _________________ 180 _ 308 _ 230 _____ 718 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2469 (=14)

mappy (5/6) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/6) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18)

Mercurial __ (2/6) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/6) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/6) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 060 _ 088 _ 012 _____ 160 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 589 (=20)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - June _) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

NYC _____________________1185 _____1072 ____1233 ________3490

Mid Atlantic _______________1252 _____1116 ____1111 ________3479

Central + Western _________ 1346 _____1001 ____1016 ________3363

PHL _____________________ 1217 _____ 901 ____1148 ________3266

PA / NY ___________________900 _____ 950 _____ 951 ________2801

TN Valley _________________ 976 _____ 914 _____ 909 ________2799

___ Consensus _____________944 _____ 846 _____ 998 ________2788

___Normal _______________ 1010 _____ 734 _____ 918 ________2662

Southeast _________________ 849 _____ 668 _____1007 ________2524

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 842 _____ 909 _____ 718 ________2469

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

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Extreme forecast update

It's looking like we may have a few more extreme forecast results and some near misses. 

DCA won't qualify as the outcome was +1.0, warmer than several forecasts.

NYC was a near miss with final value of +0.2 which was high score for the third coldest forecast of +0.1, so no go there. 

BOS is a similar story with high score for fourth lowest forecast at --0.2.

ORD also finished a bit out of the extreme forecast zone, the final anomaly is +2.6, with high score for fourth highest forecast of +2.5.  

ATL was a win for Stebo who has high forecast of +2.2, final anomaly is +2.5. 

IAH is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.5) and a loss for Tom at +2.6.

DEN finished right on the mark at +5.0 and +5.0 from RJay is high forecast for the win. 

PHX failed to qualify at +1.4. 

SEA managed to qualify at +1.7, high score going to second highest forecast +1.8 from BKViking (RJay at +2.5 took the loss). 

 

 

Extreme Forecasts wins and losses

In this table, secondary wins where "a few Universes below normal" had a win in May are marked by # symbols, and will be withdrawn if "a few Univ bn" enters a total of five contests in 2018. For DEN, two regulars tied with "a few Univ bn" and those will be retained in any case. ... RodneyS picks up one more win from April as the original win went to one-time entrant cerakoter1984. 

 

Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above)

RodneyS _____________ 7-1

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

__ Normal ____________ 4-1

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above)

RJay ________________ 4-2

wxallannj _____________3-0

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ____________ 2-0

DonSutherland1 ________2-0

hudsonvalley21 ________ 1-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

Tom _________________ 0-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

 

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