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KamuSnow

April 2nd Snow Observations

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Just now, RedSky said:

Was out in it and all it's strange the flakes are big and rates do not look impressive as radar suggests yet near an inch the last 45 minutes

 

I got a WU notification that Mt. Holly cancelled the WWA for Philadelphia but am not seeing that reflected on the NWS website yet.

Still getting light white rain and stuff is sloughing off my car.  Temp 33F.

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Severe underperformer here but alas it's April and that's how most April events go maybe .5" snow/sleet here. Will be lucky to see an inch 
April always favors N and W and elevation areas regardless of modeling. Euro had the right general idea but as noted I was a bit skeptical in its handling of thermals with no rain to start. Seems to have nailed the general qpf tho with the GFS and NAM following behind late to the show. Set my expectations at 2" slush here and happily exceeded that :-)

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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like a broad blob of heavy stuff coming across central Montco and moving into Central Bucks -

 

radar1-04022018.png

That Montco band is SN+ big flakes.  4 inches here, overachieve on stickage.  Roads white. Cant believe it dropped all the way to 32 for the majority of the event.

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12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like a broad blob of heavy stuff coming across central Montco and moving into Central Bucks -

 

radar1-04022018.png

I'm under that heavy blob right now. Good rates and nice sized flakes...32F.

hb.gif

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, The Iceman said:
Severe underperformer here but alas it's April and that's how most April events go emoji38.png maybe .5" snow/sleet here. Will be lucky to see an inch 

April always favors N and W and elevation areas regardless of modeling. Euro had the right general idea but as noted I was a bit skeptical in its handling of thermals with no rain to start. Seems to have nailed the general qpf tho with the GFS and NAM following behind late to the show. Set my expectations at 2" slush here and happily exceeded that :-)

Major supressage overnight for our potential historic weekend storm like South Carolina, say what! GFS super duper south. The EPS looks ok but that's all we have in our favor can we get that one back?

 

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3 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Wonder if any of the c-1 or 1-2 inch areas the professionals on TV called saw a single flake lol

 

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Here in NW Philly we have a coating out there.  I don't know about further south from here.  I expect there was little or nothing in CC Philly.

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2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Wonder if any of the c-1 or 1-2 inch areas the professionals on TV called saw a single flake lol

 

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

It was pretty much a N and W of Philly type of event. The last/current batch really saved me...probably close to 3". Basically what Ralph reports I'm within a couple tenths either way...

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45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Major supressage overnight for our potential historic weekend storm like South Carolina, say what! GFS super duper south. The EPS looks ok but that's all we have in our favor can we get that one back?

 

Models in general moved away from the West to East wave Miller B look and seem to be moving more towards a Miller A. If you look at the general H5 on most ops and ens they now favor more of a push S of the PV but also more amplification of that trof which would allow any system to move NE/NNE. Notable step back or disappearance on energy riding around the backside of the PV and under our region......likely hit a data sparse region for now (when I see key features suddenly vanish on ALL models at this range in one single run to the next it is an indicator that the energy entered an area that doesnt record data as well out in the PAC though many will argue against this.....happens quite a bit tho in actuality only to reappear in a few runs) I think, as we have seen over and over and over this year, we are at that lead time where the models change the look of the system or 'squash' it only to get it back when we get within 72-96 hours. I could be wrong on that tho.....maybe this will be the one that we actually lose, but I am leaning against that for now. I actually like where we sit right now with plenty of wiggle room which we need for April snows and still plenty of BIG hits on ens members. In short, I think the sheared/suppressed look is overdone and we see it come back around by Wed-Thurs on the models. Not sure what the end result will be but not sounding the all clear yet until the NAO area ridging wanes. This is still being signaled as a flip from neg to pos which is usually an Archambault trait so potential for something interesting still exists. 

Eta: the part about losing the feature completely only to bring it back.....we used to call this the Scott Simard effect back in the 90s as he was a student from new England that noted this regular cycle where models lose key energy out of the PAC then bring it back mysteriously. 

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