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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Be thankful

I should be, but the weather "geek" in me wants to see something interesting in my own locale. It sounds sick, but in a way it's not unlike those who want to see that 30+ inch blizzard in their own backyard.

After all, isn't that why we follow the weather? To experience the anomalous?

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Just now, canderson said:

ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 25.2' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood.

That seems a bit premature, no? 

I mentioned that to my wife yesterday. Similar set up, but perhaps not as wet...

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 30' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood.

That seems a bit premature, no? 

Very...quite a large area had 10"-15" amounts, and if memory serves me correctly the ground was already saturated.

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13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Nothing like some sun to send the temp up to 84, make it feel like swamp, and quickly destabilize the atmosphere


. Pro

Coming to say the same thing - it's downright hot today. All the storms seem to be quite a bit north of MDT - bad news for Schuylkill County though.

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WPC says everyone in this forum is in a bullseye today/tonight. 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0523
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1257 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN VA...D.C...MD...PA...NORTHERN
DE...NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 231655Z - 232255Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALLY SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE REGION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
IN RELATION  TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A DEEP LAYER
CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SEEN IN CIRA-LPW DATA SETS AND
BLENDED-TPW IMAGERY...WITH A HIGHLY CONCENTRATED DEGREE OF
MOISTURE IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO PWATS
THAT ARE NEAR AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ENSUES
AND COUPLES WITH A RATHER BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE SOME
NW/SE OR N/S ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE AID OF
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER THE SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BLUE RIDGE WILL FAVOR ENHANCED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3
INCHES/HR WITHIN SOME OF THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND SUITE OF 12Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MULTIPLE BANDS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
21Z...BUT THESE TOTALS COULD BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN
THE VERY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS.
WILL EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY 3 TO 4+ INCHES AS A RESULT BASED ON THE
SET-UP...AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION IS SEEING VERY MOIST IF NOT
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

ORRISON[/quote]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0523&yr=2018

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40 minutes ago, canderson said:

That storm that just hit HBG has serious crazy rain. We had water halfway up our RAV4 tires on the camp hill bypass. It is hauling north though. Very fast mover. 

I was about to say that you guys down there look to be getting some action soon.

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Looking at the radar, CTP may as well drop the flood watch for Eastern Schuylkill County. We aren't getting crap out of this. The plumes just keep training over the same damn area with nothing upstream to even give me any hope...

Really? We've had several cells roll through the area today.

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6 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Really? We've had several cells roll through the area today.

I have 2.25" for the whole event since Sunday morning. Today's total (so far) was 0.55"

I suppose it's better than Allentown, though. According to WNEP, they only got 0.06" today.

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Riddle me this. What is causing the same areas to get dumped on while others get very little? It seems the plume has originated over the Chesapeake Bay the past 3 days and moved right up the Susquehanna valley and it's tributary locations. 

If you manage to find any sort of research paper on stuff like that I'd love to see it! Cause...seriously I have no idea

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Just now, Anduril said:

If you manage to find any sort of research paper on stuff like that I'd love to see it! Cause...seriously I have no idea

I wish I could. I guess it bothers me somewhat because it's not just this event. Every single time we get a set up like this the same area gets it, and I sit painfully just east of the action.

 

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I wish I could. I guess it bothers me somewhat because it's not just this event. Every single time we get a set up like this the same area gets it, and I sit painfully just east of the action.

 

Hey man I feel ya cant count how many times I stare at the radar to the west and see the storms just split and curve around the camp hill around :p Granted, we cash in a bit more than you but still it sucks

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Flash flood warning for southern tier:

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  West central Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Adams County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
  York County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...
  Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Eastern Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 300 AM EDT..

* At 1003 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain approaching
  the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Harrisburg, York, Carlisle, Lower Allen, Hanover, Hershey, Colonial
  Park, Weigelstown, Elizabethtown, Progress, Mechanicsburg,
  Middletown, Camp Hill, Gettysburg, Palmyra, New Cumberland,
  Parkville, Red Lion, Linglestown and Enola.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to three inches are possible in
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
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