Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees.

Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run...

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032111-loop.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in.

I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed.

Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off.

500mb_sf.gif?1521634765233

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in.

I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed.

Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off.

500mb_sf.gif?1521634765233

Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread  at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night.  We look absolutely golden for 10-15”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in.

I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed.

Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off.

500mb_sf.gif?1521634765233

NAM has it passing/maturing in the small hours of tomorrow morning. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow?

This afternoon and tonight

This storm will end tomorrow morning

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread  at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night.  We look absolutely golden for 10-15”

Absolutely agreed. Where are all the people with the 'bands are always NW of modeled' talk? Plus temps became less of an issue, and most importantly, radar looks fantastic. Models can say what they want, but a storm's gotta pass the eye test, which the cool kids call nowcasting these days. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow?

Heaviest should be late afternoon through about midnight.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run...

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032111-loop.gif

That looks like the current TOTAL snowfall from yesterday!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Absolutely agreed. Where are all the people with the 'bands are always NW of modeled' talk? Plus temps became less of an issue, and most importantly, radar looks fantastic. Models can say what they want, but a storm's gotta pass the eye test, which the cool kids call nowcasting these days. 

For the post you quoted, Exact opposite for me. We call it the Toms River bubble. We blame it on the Lakehurst naval Base saying they're developing something to steer away any threatening weather snow, thunder, anything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff?

Sort of, so what's happening right now is that the best forcing is along and just North of this line. That's why you're seeing heavier precip showing up near NYC and C NJ

sketched_5ab2527e6c2bd.png

As time goes on, this pivots NW, it's already begun the process.

sketched_5ab252c9dcef9.png

Then that 500mb low pops, the storm reaches maximum strength.

sketched_5ab2532da357d.png

And then eventually the storm begins to slide East. Based on this, the strongest banding would be right over Eastern NJ, the LHV, NYC and most of LI.

sketched_5ab2536c9a4f9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you look at the SLP track between the GFS, NAM and ECMWF, it's very similar. Just small differences with the strength and exact track of that ULL.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that.  It’s quasi random.  Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that.  It’s quasi random.  Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers.

this x 1000.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Can anyone verify those yellow bands in Queens? Legit? 

In Western Queens under some yellows and it's been high-end moderate to heavy for about 30 min now.  Woke up at 8 to mostly wet and now almost everything white.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said:

Would that hinder some influence on the surface low or opposite?

 

Earlier someone mentioned that Cantore was saying it would steal some moisture but I'm not qualified to comment further. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Earlier someone mentioned that Cantore was saying it would steal some moisture but I'm not qualified to comment further. 

I love when he gets angry when he doesn't get the worst of it. Cantore makes my day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ok, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show.  After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've ust had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything. 

With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their dirty work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface.  Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh?  That's half the fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

ok, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show.  After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've ust had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything. 

With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their dirty work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface.  Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh?  That's half the fun. 

Not true in Brooklyn we already have all surfaces cover with heavy snow falling sticking easily 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Not true in Brooklyn we already have all surfaces cover with heavy snow falling sticking easily 

Quickly accumulating here in brooklyn

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×