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Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? 

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

It easily has over a foot for the metro and it's not done snowing at the end of its run.

Take it with a grain of salt though.

It's focusing the energy to the low closest to us again like yesterday's models showed. If that's correct, then we would easily get 12"+ totals.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . 

Yes, agreed.  Same time period, through 11 pm...better for city and east and northern Jersey shore...but again, I think 6"-12" for most is a good expectation...locally higher amounts...modeling consistent on this imo.

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop.gif

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5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? 

Yes, see post above.  The trend will be our friend?  But...and a big BUT here...HRRR at this range might as well be GFS at 300+...

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

GOES-16 WV is a thing of beauty right now. retrograding upper lows, figure 8, broad diffluence - i could go on and on...

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-regional-northeast-09-11_22Z-20180321_map-10-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.3c7a84c05a441955996bec97cc3e79a5.gif

edit: click to animate. 

Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here.

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14 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

I am not that far through age yet ;) 1 more year. 

For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see.  3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know!

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop(1).gif

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here.

both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. 

What are your thoughts for the NJ suburbs 15-25 Miles west of the city?  I’m in central Union County.  Just interested in expectations and possible interest there.

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1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said:

You seem a lot more optimistic this morning. What brought about the change?

I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . 

  • Haha 1

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . 

Fair enough.

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Light snow. Down to 33 from 35 according to NWS. Up here in Harlem we're probably at or below freezing. 

Radar looks incredible. Hoping the SE model bias is gonna finally work out for us. 

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28 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see.  3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know!

hrrr.snku_acc.us_ne.2018032110-loop(1).gif

Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees.

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