wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Some decent wrap around lake enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 NAM gets us good with wraparound Tuesday night and Wednesday. Travel issues Wednesday morning with that output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Cranky sends me local wx updates. Love that guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12Z NAM spits out 0.99” LE at KSYR between hours 48 - 84. KROC 0.55 and KALB 0.59”... GFS is 0.78” KSYR 0.69” KROC, 0.80” KALB...light accum after hr 84 at SYR and ROC. Not wildly different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 And still going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 12Z NAM spits out 0.99” LE at KSYR between hours 48 - 84. KROC 0.55 and KALB 0.59”... GFS is 0.78” KSYR 0.69” KROC, 0.80” KALB...light accum after hr 84 at SYR and ROC. Not wildly different... What are your thoughts on ratios? I know you and Freak are usually dialed in on temp profiles. These long duration, moderate rate, Spring things are hard to accumulate. Especially from the public’s perspective. Roc has had a lot of measured snow over the last 5 days but I doubt the ave person would believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 H84 on GFS shows the wrap and ensuing lake response I suspect. It’s 3 days away though. I wonder if it doesn’t end up a bit further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: What are your thoughts on ratios? I know you and Freak are usually dialed in on temp profiles. These long duration, moderate rate, Spring things are hard to accumulate. Especially from the public’s perspective. Roc has had a lot of measured snow over the last 5 days but I doubt the ave person would believe it. I'm thinking ratios are 10:1 in general but yeah...accumulating depth is hard with a slow feed over days, and road impacts are lessened at this point cuz... March Sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Day 2, 8" Probabilities...surpsingly Boolish for CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4" Probabilities Days 2, 3 Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 These seem aggressive. Over 2 days maybe...I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Morning AFD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... For western and north central NY, this next weather system bears a strong resemblance to the last long-duration event from this past Wednesday evening through Saturday morning. This will result in an extended period of mostly light snow on Tuesday and Wednesday with steadier snows east of the lakes due to upsloping and lake enhancement. Two-day storm totals may approach a foot in some of these locations, but for the most part 12 and 24 hour totals appear to fall into the advisory category. Keep in mind that although this is a similar set up, subtle variations in timing, location, and wind direction may result in different snowfall amounts for any given location. Now for the details... On Tuesday an inverted trough will extend from a strong coastal low westward to a closed 500 mb low which will be across the Lower Great Lakes. This trough axis will gradually drop southward across western New York Tuesday with increasing moisture and snow showers. Steadiest snows will be east of Rochester where a general 1-3 inches of snow is expected during the day. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, with increasing moisture from the coastal low. Wrap around moisture, northwesterly upslope flow, and some lake enhancement will result in periods of snow showers, which will have the most accumulating power across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill. One subtle difference with this storm system compared to the last, is temperatures should run a couple of degrees cooler, which could support a little better lower elevation accumulation, although accumulations will still be somewhat limited during the day Wednesday with the high March sun angle. Slightly drier air will build in from the west with a narrow ridge axis, with snow becoming less widespread from west to east. Snow showers will last most of the night east of Lake Ontario where moisture will continue to be ample and where upsloping and lake enhancement will continue.. 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3k Nam really wants to do this on the South shore. We’ll see. Support would be nice. 12z.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The NE forum is exploding...lol. I'm thinking we'll see a more from this one than the last (mainly due to the cooler temps). 12z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12z nam just as impressive for south shore. The high Rez suite is gonna be um..... interesting. 3 Days. Most of it Weds-Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, vortmax said: The NE forum is exploding...lol. I'm thinking we'll see a more from this one than the last (mainly due to the cooler temps). 12z will be telling. NAM being NAM. Brings out the weenie in all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 At some point BING is gonna have to take that 1.25-1.5” consistently being painted just south of Syr. Somebody is gonna do well. North side of Skaneattles always does well. Anyone from that micro climate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I must be looking at the wrong naps then, as I don't see anything impressive about either the NAM or it's counterpart, the GFS so what am I missing? In fact, we get just as much precip as they do in NE, the difference being, theirs comes in 12hrs and ours in 36. Lemme know if I'm missing something. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I must be looking at the wrong naps then, as I don't see anything impressive about either the NAM or it's counterpart, the GFS so what am I missing? In fact, we get just as much precip as they do in NE, the difference being, theirs comes in 12hrs and ours in 36. Lemme know if I'm missing something. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk That pretty much sums it up. We seem to get quasi-constant winter up here with brief breaks. Others get a day of glory once in a while then back to 40s. Would be nice to get a respectable dump more often but winter here is a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: At some point BING is gonna have to take that 1.25-1.5” consistently being painted just south of Syr. Somebody is gonna do well. North side of Skaneattles always does well. Anyone from that micro climate? I'm about 4 miles north of the village of Skaneateles. We'll see how it goes - can be hit or miss here by just a few miles sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 152 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 NYZ006>008-130300- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0056.180313T0000Z-180315T1000Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 152 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...A prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches are expected across the Tug Hill Plateau and western slopes of the Adirondacks, while somewhat lower event totals of 6 to 10 inches are expected across the lower elevations. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be hazardous to difficult. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Not sure why they didn't put N Cayuga and Wayne in the WWA...thinking they will add them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Eurotrash 10:1 map thru 84 hrs. Padding the stats here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Gotta admit, not sure i've ever seen a WWA that includes 10-20" of snow forecasted... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 NYZ009-018-036-037-131915- /O.EXB.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.180312T2200Z-180315T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations tonight and Tuesday will be 2 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulations will be 10 to 15 inches, with localized amounts up to 20 inches. This will be a long duration light snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 28 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Gotta admit, not sure i've ever seen a WWA that includes 10-20" of snow forecasted... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 NYZ009-018-036-037-131915- /O.EXB.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.180312T2200Z-180315T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 312 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations tonight and Tuesday will be 2 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulations will be 10 to 15 inches, with localized amounts up to 20 inches. This will be a long duration light snow event. Noticed that...20"?? Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 All of western ny north of 5 and 20 should be in a winter storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: All of western ny north of 5 and 20 should be in a winter storm watch Here's the 3km Snow clown thru hr 60. Problems are: 1) its the NAM, 2) its an off hr run (18Z), 3) KBGM & KBUF AFDs have six different reasons why this won't materialize that don't include 1 or 2. Other than on a few hilltops somewhere in CNY. So basically, this is just a big oh-never-mind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Spring can arrive any day now. But looking like that's not gonna happen for a while. Good thing i still have the plow on the 4 wheeler lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Here's the 3km Snow clown thru hr 60. Problems are: 1) its the NAM, 2) its an off hr run (18Z), 3) KBGM & KBUF AFDs have six different reasons why this won't materialize that don't include 1 or 2. Other than on a few hilltops somewhere in CNY. So basically, this is just a big oh-never-mind event. So you're telling me there's a chance?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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