CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 As was mentioned earlier, that inverted trough will be big for the lower elevations if it in fact comes to fruition. You can see it setting up right over top[ of us so it'll be interesting to observe as the night progresses. needs to move just a tick or two west, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 How this system doesn't come further West is beyond me, especially with a H500 that looks like this. Look at hoe negatively tilted this trough is and it continues negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: How this system doesn't come further West is beyond me, especially with a H500 that looks like this. Look at hoe negatively tilted this trough is and it continues negative. Yeah, timing of trough a tad late to keep it tucked in but it does get drawn back NW to throw us scraps on the backside. Although, if 3K NAM is right, some pretty nice scraps. It’s not done running but looks impressive here thru hr 50. But of course most of that won’t really happen per some, who seem to sometimes forget this isn’t Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 It's downright cold just off the deck as the flake size is indicative of the colder temps aloft. Definitely different than the last 2 which the density of the snow was downright pasty, as opposed to this event, which is quite powdery. H850's down to -10 already which is already enough to initiate Lake enhancement from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 This doesnt look half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3k nam looks good especially from Wednesday am into Thursday am, estimated 1.2” LE in a 24 hr period..(6z wed-6z Thursday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 I'm not saying this is in any way a sign of things to come, but the observations are somewhat interesting is all. A very strong storm as pressures are down to 978 already and its still 1000 miles to the South of the BM so a lot of strengthening to go with ferocious winds along the coast with snow being the dominant precip type even along the coastal plain of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This doesnt look half bad. That looks exceptional brutha, but does it actually happen that way is the ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 00Z 3k NAM Clown. Guessing we see 8-10” out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Coastal NE, lucky dogs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Coastal NE, lucky dogs! Yup. The swine. 32km NAM below. 10:1...Not doing Kuchera...still pretty decent thru Thursday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Lots of busts coming, lol, and I'm talking to low not high so lets see what happens. That band in West Jersey I don't think was forecasted as its snowing, and has been for a while now, pretty hard and it doesn't look like its gonna end anytime soon, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Ok, this is probably the last storm of the season...here’s 00z 32km (regular) NAM using Kuchera method. Lots of pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 This system is forecasted to track just east of the BM and I don't see it, seriously don't. I'll be surprised if this system doesn't hook further west than models are showing but we'll see what happens. That sure is a super negatively tilted trough and thats the steering flow which is straight North almost NNW but all models have it escaping OTS almost instantly and I just don't see it playing out that way. It looks to catch it a bit to late but I don't think thats the case. What a classic looking Nor'easter. The satellite pic should look awesome in about 6-10 hrs as this thing starts to rev up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 The added bonus to keep an eye on is that after the synoptically enhanced wraparound pulls out very early Thursday morning, perhaps just after midnight...we may see a lull before some true Lake Effect gets cranking after a shortwave passage late Thursday into Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This system is forecasted to track just east of the BM and I don't see it, seriously don't. I'll be surprised if this system doesn't hook further west than models are showing but we'll see what happens. That sure is a super negatively tilted trough and thats the steering flow which is straight North almost NNW but all models have it escaping OTS almost instantly and I just don't see it playing out that way. It looks to catch it a bit to late but I don't think thats the case. What a classic looking Nor'easter. The satellite pic should look awesome in about 6-10 hrs as this thing starts to rev up the coast. Someone should do a dissection of the nor’easters this season. It would make a novella in and of itself. This will be at least the 4th major one. It started with the so-called “Bomb Storm” back in January that rivaled alltime records for 24 hr pressure drops as I recall. Or was it late December? Seems like ancient history now. Amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just measured 1” down now at 2330 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Its definitely been a great season for coastal storms. Possibly due to the bath water sitting just off the coast but who really knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 00Z GFS sas hold the phone on outrageous amounts...even in New England. GFS usually stingier than NAM but this looks more reasonable overall. Perhaps a GFS / NAM blend verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Interesting streamline image https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-67.49,35.04,1464/loc=-55.062,37.621 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 I don't know how Boston does it. 3rd storm this year with snow totals over 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't know how Boston does it. 3rd storm this year with snow totals over 2'. I don’t think KBOS has officially had any storms of 2 feet this winter but yeah, Eastern New England again has had 3 blockbusters with 16-24”. Logan is tough to get huge totals being right on the water. Not really rep of eastern Mass IMO. Worcester has had two 16” storms though. Look to be a lock for #3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2" overnight. 0.22" L.E. Snow has shifted east of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2.5 inches here overnight, close to the high end of the 1-3 that was forecast. Some light snow falling currently. Waiting for the main event tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Got a feeling this one over performs for south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Glad i am not in SNE near the coast due to wind issues again with a weakened infrastructure and...those mid 30s sfc temps and antecedent mild ground temps are holding back accums thusfar. And will throughout the daylight which is when most of their snow will occur. Jackpot forecasts of 20"+ on CC and near shoreline look stupid. I also had noticed some questionable UVV & DGZ alignments although plenty of moisture available, which may not help either. Glad my storm contest forecast didn't go overboard there. Still thinking 12-15" though from PVD - HYA - BOS - ORH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 I don’t know what to make of this forecast. It’s a mix of synoptic and LES. It’s too warm and too windy for traditional LES. Also, the NWS is forecasting West winds throughout the duration (wrong) which would not favor South shore. Some of the models print out huge amts, 16”. Others, like the GFS showing nada. IDK. If I had to guess, I’d side with a conservative forecast. Couple slushy inches in the grass. I’ll gladly be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 30 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Glad i am not in SNE near the coast due to wind issues again with a weakened infrastructure and...those mid 30s sfc temps and antecedent mild ground temps are holding back accums thusfar. And will throughout the daylight which is when most of their snow will occur. Jackpot forecasts of 20"+ on CC and near shoreline look stupid. I also had noticed some questionable UVV & DGZ alignments although plenty of moisture available, which may not help either. Glad my storm contest forecast didn't go overboard there. Still thinking 12-15" though from PVD - HYA - BOS - ORH area. Yeah. CC gets these big forecasts at least once a year. They never come to fruition. Cut it by 75%. Now Boston, haha, they probably will get 18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 12z NAM trimming back totals along south shore. And it keeps pushing it out. This storm has been 18 hrs out for 72 hrs LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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