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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Its currently 32F where I am and the dp is 27F so there's more room for a slight drop in temp due to wet-bulb processes. We should end up right around 30 -31F but only if the precip gets heavy enough will the column cool enough to get down that low, but it has to at least SN cause I'm not sure we see any S+ so.  

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RLMFAO

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

Where'd the snow across the Catskills go as well as the Poconos?  Does anyone in here actually think the Catshills will get 8-10" and the Poconos 3-6" if that, especially with reflectivity like this.

RAD_KBGM_N0R_ANI.gif.9a9f1ba0282008112597ec12c0f3fd8d.gif

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071347Z - 071745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
   likely to develop later this morning.  Locally higher rates (2+
   inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the
   frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts.

   DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low
   60 mi ESE of WAL.  Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range
   from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC.      

   The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile
   subfreezing except immediately near the surface.  The 500mb
   temperature was -25.5 C.  Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the
   mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of
   13-14Z.  As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level
   ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar
   cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a
   plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will
   combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright
   convection.  Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE
   northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the
   early afternoon.  Models indicate the development of strong
   frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z.  As
   the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically
   juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation
   rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25
   inch.

   Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a
   significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+
   inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp
   rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established.  Eastern
   PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation
   type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from
   the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ.  Higher
   elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the
   low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea
   level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates.

 

Meanwhile the Nam dropped almost 3/4 of the precip over the Poconos.  Just proving scientifically that the NAM clearly went to **** at 06Z and it remains there and its flat out wrong, plain and simple.

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Sn to at times S+ but mostly Sn right now and the flake size has indeed increased to a nice accumulating snow, if it can drop below that magical number of 32F, then we could get something going but if not we have to wait till at least this evening! 

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33 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Sn to at times S+ but mostly Sn right now and the flake size has indeed increased to a nice accumulating snow, if it can drop below that magical number of 32F, then we could get something going but if not we have to wait till at least this evening! 

Window dressing snow in Syracuse itself. Not accumulating on anything despite decent flake size. March sun, warm ground, light rate, climate change, blah blah blah.

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With DST coming this will only get worse... ;)

KBGM AFD snip... A day/night trend has become established in terms of modeling with data showing a westward shift during the day and eastward shift with runs that came in during the night. Modeling has been struggling with this system, typical for miller B low tracks.

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Look at how far East the RGEM is compared to other guidance, WOW.  This should be the biggest bust of em all, lol! Has the Poconos getting .46"/liq equ, lol!

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

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14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

A Lot of lightning in nj..Thunder sleet reported in AC..

E0D987D5-4E23-4BA2-8CB6-4544C21769BC.jpeg

Nice convection, but I always feel like thunder during frozen p-type that isn't snow is a bit of a cheat, because graupel, sleet, and hail just generate so much more frictional charge than dendrites. I mean, you have to have pretty intense convection for actual thundersnow in a synoptic storm, which is awesome and rare. LES thundersnow is cool, but I remember hearing thundersnow when I lived in Boston during the March 1993 coastal blizzard, and that made a huge impression on me. I think we can all agree that people who freak out about thunder during graupel or sleet events are rank amateurs.

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36 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The snowstorm is over, the sun is breaking through, lol. 

That band that has been moving through Western NY during the morning really crapped out fast. By the time it passes through Buffalo in the next half hour, it isn't likely to be more than a short period of wind gusts. I don't have my hopes up for much, but even that minor burst of snow seems to have been too much to hope for.

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The strikes between cnj-nyc is snow..

Oh ok - I was looking at a lightning map earlier and it was firing off near Atlantic City where it was definitely rain.

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25 minutes ago, WNash said:

Nice convection, but I always feel like thunder during frozen p-type that isn't snow is a bit of a cheat, because graupel, sleet, and hail just generate so much more frictional charge than dendrites. I mean, you have to have pretty intense convection for actual thundersnow in a synoptic storm, which is awesome and rare. LES thundersnow is cool, but I remember hearing thundersnow when I lived in Boston during the March 1993 coastal blizzard, and that made a huge impression on me. I think we can all agree that people who freak out about thunder during graupel or sleet events are rank amateurs.

Even that last system with quite a few strikes of lightning and a rapidly deepening system in the perfect spot to hit us was nothing compared to the LES events we have had even earlier this year. Synoptic like we just had is awesome, but nothing competes with a strong LES band. They're not even close.

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Looks like Manhattan is seeing some S+ at the moment and my brother called and said their expecting 2-3"/hr rates this afternoon into early evening.  Very heavy precip in So. NJ with sleet in between.  I wonder how many stories up the asos set-up is at. 

1520448028

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Saw the PHL AFD...meso banding and heaviest snow further east than progged there...so despite heavy snow, surface temps in mid 30s are limiting accumulation...so I figure they will have a hard time seeing forecasted amts. Maybe get to bottom end of ranges?

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Well, perusing NYC and SNE, other than a few locations with elevation away from the shoreline, or crooked rulers, I don't see high forecast snow totals materializing.  NYC reports, with photos show very little OTG. What a waste, but snowstorms at 35 degrees do that.

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2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The busts with this dud will be immense, lol!

No kidding! One Facebook weather group was calling for 2-4" in Toronto by Friday - we haven't seen anything! I don't know where they get their info from - no model was calling for that amount in the snow-hole, otherwise known as Toronto.

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