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The Iceman

March 1-3 -NAO Comeback Coastal Discussion/OBS

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Great briefing write up from NWS Mount Holly on pending storm. Clearly some uncertainty regarding the SE extent of the snow threat as highlighted (see attached) by them down into NW Chester County etc. Although clearly wind will be the greatest impact and any potential power outages. 

NWS Snow.jpg

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if the NAM is right, the red box really needs to be shifted further S and E. both 3k and 12k rock extreme SE PA while the Lehigh valley doesn't see any snow on the back side.

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21 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z 12k NAM continues to rock extreme se pa into NJ with heavy snow from 18z-0z. Would definitely see more than 1-3" if that verifies. Has been very consistent the last 24 hours. here's the clown map and obviously won't get 10:1 but I don't think we have trouble sticking if the rates the nam shows are correct. also coming into focus is the sharp gradient.

 

 

I wouldnt necessarily say it has been consistent.  It has been ticking east and less qpf with ever run.  and now the heaviest is confined to north of here.

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I wouldnt necessarily say it has been consistent.  It has been ticking east and less qpf with ever run.  and now the heaviest is confined to north of here.

i mean no model is going to show the exact solution every run but look at this trend gif... outside of ticking east like you said, it has been consistent in throwing a narrow band of heavy snow on the backside. to me it looks more as if the model is narrowing down the heavy band and cutting areas that don't get into the heavy rates. compared to the globals the last 24 hours, it has been way more consistent.

namconus_asnow_neus_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.771463665bbe1d3d0e4536994141d260.gif

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much like the last event it is going to come down to rates. if we get heavy rates on the wraparound stuff then it is going to be snow even if the temp is 34 or 35F and it is going to stick. I don't think white rain will be an issue. It will either snow and snow hard due to the rates or it won't change over. May be one of those events where you change over multiple times in and out of bands where heavy bands are heavy snow but light bands are a mix or light rain/sleet.

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33 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Great briefing write up from NWS Mount Holly on pending storm. Clearly some uncertainty regarding the SE extent of the snow threat as highlighted (see attached) by them down into NW Chester County etc. Although clearly wind will be the greatest impact and any potential power outages. 

NWS Snow.jpg

Nothing will change

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much like the last event it is going to come down to rates. if we get heavy rates on the wraparound stuff then it is going to be snow even if the temp is 34 or 35F and it is going to stick. I don't think white rain will be an issue. It will either snow and snow hard due to the rates or it won't change over. May be one of those events where you change over multiple times in and out of bands where heavy bands are heavy snow but light bands are a mix or light rain/sleet.
Mesos particularly the 3k NAM are honing in on a narrow "death band" deformation type setting up nearby. It appears the signal is for the band to be rather narrow with subsidence on either side. That is the dealbreaker/dealmaker for SE PA irt snowfall forecasts. I agree whoever gets under it will see rakeage but pinpointing where it sets up will be a nowcast. This feature isnt as far S and W retrograding with the 12z NAM family as in past runs which hazwoper noted. Maybe noise? Awaiting rest of 12z suite......

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RGEM is super warm but also doesn really have as heavy banding as the NAM...but even places with elevation like NW NJ do poor on this run. Contrast that with the NAM that gives them at least a foot... I want to see what the hires WRF nest does at 12z. They have been money in several events this year at short lead times. The ARW suite looked great at 00z but the NMM suite was warm. 

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RGEM is super warm but also doesn really have as heavy banding as the NAM...but even places with elevation like NW NJ do poor on this run. Contrast that with the NAM that gives them at least a foot... I want to see what the hires WRF nest does at 12z. They have been money in several events this year at short lead times. The ARW suite looked great at 00z but the NMM suite was warm. 
I have a suspicion the NAM is running too cold on this event but we shall see. Is EE rule still in effect or did the models step back from that solution?

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
RGEM is super warm but also doesn really have as heavy banding as the NAM...but even places with elevation like NW NJ do poor on this run. Contrast that with the NAM that gives them at least a foot... I want to see what the hires WRF nest does at 12z. They have been money in several events this year at short lead times. The ARW suite looked great at 00z but the NMM suite was warm. 

I have a suspicion the NAM is running too cold on this event but we shall see. Is EE rule still in effect or did the models step back from that solution?

I have a suspicion the other models are too warm :)

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35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
43 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
RGEM is super warm but also doesn really have as heavy banding as the NAM...but even places with elevation like NW NJ do poor on this run. Contrast that with the NAM that gives them at least a foot... I want to see what the hires WRF nest does at 12z. They have been money in several events this year at short lead times. The ARW suite looked great at 00z but the NMM suite was warm. 

I have a suspicion the NAM is running too cold on this event but we shall see. Is EE rule still in effect or did the models step back from that solution?

somewhat...EURO is cooler than all the other guidance but not as cool as the NAM. Also not as much precip though. 1-3" still seems like a fine guess

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I am looking forward to tracking the evolution of this storm.  These are the types of events that are fun to watch evolve regardless of the outcome.  should be fun.

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I have a suspicion the other models are too warm 
We can only hope. Im merely siding with the majority and the mesos that tend to perform better with thermals, not being blatantly negative or downplaying any potential whatsoever. Under the banding will see flakes tho but almost impossible to pinpoint which towns get in on that action.

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I am looking forward to tracking the evolution of this storm.  These are the types of events that are fun to watch evolve regardless of the outcome.  should be fun.

Agreed, not really concerned about snowfall tbh. This doesnt look like a widespread snow event at all in SE PA, rather isolated at best totally dependent on banding convergence features and vort pass dynamics as well as slp retrograde which is like playing darts. Though whatever areas can tack on a few inches of paste for their seasonal totals Im sure will not complain.

 

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Mt. Holly lofted a High Wind Warning for Philly north and west (and my radio EAS just activated) -

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1144 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>018-021>025-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-020445-
/O.UPG.KPHI.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0001.180302T1600Z-180303T1100Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Pennsville,
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Millville, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Reading, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, and Lansdale
1144 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST
Saturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATION...Northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware,
  southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds with gusts of 40 to 50 mph develop toward
  midday Friday. Peak gusts to 60 mph are most likely to occur
  from mid afternoon to late evening Friday. Winds will gradually
  diminish late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Saturated soils will enhance the potential for high
  winds to blow down trees and power lines. Scattered power
  outages are likely. Travel will be difficult, especially for
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

 

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euro shows the dynamic cooling quite well imo...where the band sets up they get 2-4" but outside of it areas may struggle to even changeover. I think 1-3" region wide except for the far N and W(Poconos) is a safe bet but there will be a localized strip of 3-6" where the CCB sets up. should be a very fun storm whoever gets into that band. but even outside of it, it should be a fun storm with the wind. we've had good luck with surprises this year, what's one more?

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after 12z I am pretty confident that all of SE PA changes over to snow tomorrow for a period but I am not sold on accumulations yet over a car/grass topper. That will be a nowcast especially since this is occurring during the day. rates are going to be everything here.

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Just now, wkd said:

Looks like I may get my daytime snow.

you are in a good spot for banding imo won't be surprised at all if your area does well and gets slammed by the ccb

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56 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

you are in a good spot for banding imo won't be surprised at all if your area does well and gets slammed by the ccb

That would be a rarity. In most cases bands set up to my east and west (or north and south).  Check out my snow totals sometime. I do usually beat D.C though.

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This board is interesting to me. Major storm coming in - high (probably damaging) winds with power outages likely and because we are not in the "for sure" snow area - this are few comments. Still on the same page as 7 hours ago.   IF it isn't snow - no one here cares.  I like extreme weather regardless of what it is. I love snow - don't get me wrong - but I like what ever we get that stirs it up!!

I also think that the public will get caught by surprise. If it was a blizzard everyone on facebook, social media would be going bonkers. Just a major wind storm and little "chatter".

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This board is interesting to me. Major storm coming in - high (probably damaging) winds with power outages likely and because we are not in the "for sure" snow area - this are few comments. Still on the same page as 7 hours ago.   IF it isn't snow - no one here cares.  I like extreme weather regardless of what it is. I love snow - don't get me wrong - but I like what ever we get that stirs it up!!
I also think that the public will get caught by surprise. If it was a blizzard everyone on facebook, social media would be going bonkers. Just a major wind storm and little "chatter".
This, people around here don't have any idea about how fast power outages are going to come tomorrow. We're so saturated it's not even funny. And if we do change over to snow at all that cement is just going to make it even worse. Coastal flooding is going to be a big issue too, just speaking on my neck of the woods. Very strong noreaster either way. Just not looking forward to driving a box truck to north jersey tomorrow. The ride up and down the Turnpike isn't gonna be fun at all.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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This board is interesting to me. Major storm coming in - high (probably damaging) winds with power outages likely and because we are not in the "for sure" snow area - this are few comments. Still on the same page as 7 hours ago.   IF it isn't snow - no one here cares.  I like extreme weather regardless of what it is. I love snow - don't get me wrong - but I like what ever we get that stirs it up!!

I also think that the public will get caught by surprise. If it was a blizzard everyone on facebook, social media would be going bonkers. Just a major wind storm and little "chatter".

Welcome to Philly. Some People in this subforum could see 1-2' imo but it doesn't matter. Because its gon' rain in PHL

 

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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The same folks stating this is a dead forum and nobody from Philly proper is posting because its gunna rain in Philly are the same folks that only have one post each over the past few weeks that live in better snow prone areas and the ones that live in Philly proper are the ones that have been posting incessantly all day/week about this storm threat. Not trying to start anything but true story.....you guys should post more. Sitting back and rarely joining in discussion while waiting for the 'regulars' to keep discussion going isnt helping to make it more active in here.

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My WXSIM forecast for NW Chester County has the rain changing to snow by around 2pm tomorrow with around 3" before ending by 9pm. That said this will obviously be a very tricky forecast. If you are under heavier bands the precipitation will go to snow pretty easily....during lulls back to drizzle. Elevation will also play a significant role tomorrow. For spots in Chester and Berks county at 600 ft ASL or above I would expect more accumulation...especially if any of those bands rotate from NE to SW over those locales. The winds of course will likely be the biggest story - have your generators ready to go...I've got mine ready to go! stay safe 

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