BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats the frontal passage and the density should be a lot drier and the ratios should be a bit higher and not 8-1" like today. There's a HUGE parade in Philly right now through the city, lol! Still pretty low density stuff here, was mixing with pellets at the beginning. Already an inch of new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Still pretty high here, was mixing with pellets at the beginning. Already an inch of new snow. Yep lots of graupel too, was waiting for a nice lightning strike but nothing yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm nearing 6" for the day and awaiting the AF which should add another couple then hoping for a quick flare up of LE before it heads North and murders the TUG tomorrow night through Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Yep lots of graupel too, was waiting for a nice lightning strike but nothing yet.. We probably get more thundersnow here than anywhere in the world. It's my favorite meteorological phenomenon. So spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The Temp is gonna plummet in an hr or so out there. 850's tumble right after the front so the ratios should start out pretty high still but they should quickly drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 So happy the Pats finally lost a SB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 0z models look crappy. At least Buf-Roc. It’s headed SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Precip output for wed-thurs event took a tick in the wrong direction but all the other components look great for the area as a whole but the next couple days should iron out the details. One thing that's for sure and that's its gonna be a cold storm with temps in the low 20's so ratios should be 15-1 and with .75 being spit out by the GFS and the EURO, I'll take that any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 0z models look crappy. At least Buf-Roc. It’s headed SE. Crappy for everyone. GEM barely has anything. 2-4" for most. Way less QPF. I'm actually more intrigued by the storm system next weekend. It actually looks like a full on phase, but way to far NW right now. Hopefully that ticks SE like the trend of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 IDK, this looks damn good to me but that's just me. There's nothing keeping this from a few ticks NW like most systems have done thus far this season and without even a semblence of a -NAO I wouldn't worry all that much seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I guess everyone sees things differently because everything I have looked at looks ideal for a moderate snowfall. Its not like this was supposed to be some kind of blockbuster or something like that. We're really spoiled up here cause 6-8" for us is a joke but it is what it is. We continue to nickle and dime our way to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Go Cheesesteaks! As a Giants fan, proud to have them as NFC East partners in defeating the Evil NE Empire. How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Crappy for everyone. GEM barely has anything. 2-4" for most. Way less QPF. I'm actually more intrigued by the storm system next weekend. It actually looks like a full on phase, but way to far NW right now. Hopefully that ticks SE like the trend of the season. GEM is usually the most suppressed model of the major ones. Not as bad as NAV but close. I like it bc it usually sets the rail on the right side of possible storm tracks. Looks like 5-9" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM went way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM went way north 0Z NAM numerical output is 0.4 -0.6" LE from KBUF to KSYR. Given favorable ratios, 5-9" look reasonable area wide. This was never a 12"+ system here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Ggem still has a nice lake effect look to it after this storm moves through, then several more inches with another clipper system just like the 12z ecm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Next 6-7 days at 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Some FZDZ coming down now here north of syr at 30 degrees ahead of this last batch of snow from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Probably picked up more snow with this batch tonight then we did all day long lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Mainly North ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3” of new snow overnight to my surprise. Channel 4 calling for another 2” tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Kbuf Focus then shifts to a winter storm system that will track just to our southeast late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Confidence remains high in a widespread snowfall across western and central NY starting early Wednesday morning. The period of heaviest snowfall is expected during the day Wednesday as global model consensus shows the storm tracks from West Virginia to southern New England. Upper level support will be provided by a trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By Wednesday night, Snowfall should taper off to lingering lake effect snows southeast of the lakes into Thursday morning as a pool of -16C 850mb air shifts over the eastern Great Lakes. Confidence in snowfall totals continues to increase with the stripe of highest snow expected just east of CNY. A blend of 00z model QPF/Snow Ratio guidance was used in the current forecast update. Within our CWA, the eastern Lake Ontario counties seem to have the best chance at reaching warning criteria snows of 7-9 inches. WNY into the Finger Lakes should more likely see Advisory level snow totals closer to 4-7 inches. A Winter Storm Watch was considered for the eastern Lake Ontario region however in collaboration with surrounding forecast offices we have held off for one more model run. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. High temps Wednesday should again run in the mid 20s to low 30s falling again into the teens to single digits Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4.1 I'm Williamsville plows are out and clearing driveways with snowblower...a bit surprised at the amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm also quite intrigued by the wave tonight that has winds going SW...could be lake enhancement NE of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5.1" of real snow for yesterday all tolled, 3 separate measurements during the event, including this a.m., only 0.75" overnight. Only 0.28" liquid. The big parachutes yesterdsybafternoon helped a lot. Not bad for an almost throwaway type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I ended up with 6.1 inches but I was really surprised that the LE was only 0.25. The first part of the storm was boiler plate material with air temperatures between 33 and 34. Like Syrmax said the parachutes in the afternoon must have really brought the ratios up. If we can get ratios of over 20:1 with this next system it might over perform too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 3.4" of new snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks like Euro went a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like Euro went a bit NW. BW I particularly like this storm track for WNY...wrap around snow/lake enhancement would be a certainty and most models seem to miss that. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Impressive event yesterday in the SW Adirondacks, reports of 18-20 inches around the Speculator area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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