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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I see a huge bust for the area that's all I have to say.  If we surpass 5" i'll be surprised as this is in here at 7 and out by 4pm so if it doesn't pound for those few hrs then all bets are off.  Mike Seidel in Syracuse calling for 5-7" and I think he's right on the money.

KSYR= 6"

KROC=4"

KBUF=3"

Rome= 9"

Utica=11"

KALB= 14" 

There may be some LE but it won't matter much as it'll all be gone on Saturday when rain enters the pic so enjoy the next few days.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Every model has 0.5”-0.6 for ksyr region and has for days, so I’m not sure why this is a surprise..Gfs is actually wetter then the euro..Kbuf has always been 0.30-0.40”..

NAM juicer, to be expected...but 0.6-0.7 at KSYR has been consistent for days...

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

On top of this we have to hope it pounds when it does snow cause its a 8hr event if that, lol! To get 8" it has to sn an 1"/hr for 8 straight hrs. I hope it happens but I'm not confident considering almost every event this yr has been a disappointment, at least here in the snow hole of CNY! Good luck all and lets see what model does best with this SWFE!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

On top of this we have to hope it pounds when it does snow cause its a 8hr event if that, lol! To get 8" it has to sn an 1"/hr for 8 straight hrs. I hope it happens but I'm not confident considering almost every event this yr has been a disappointment, at least here in the snow hole of CNY! Good luck all and lets see what model does best with this SWFE!

It's about 12 hrs duration. Probably 4-5 hrs at 3/4-1"/hr rates (4"), another 4-5 hrs at 1/2"/hr(2-3")  and another inch gratis for the remainder.  Totals up 6-8"...Chuck in 2-3" LES for dessert and voila, 10". Quit your bitchin! ;)

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

It's about 12 hrs duration. Probably 4-5 hrs at 3/4-1"/hr rates (4"), another 4-5 hrs at 1/2"/hr(2-3")  and another inch gratis for the remainder.  Totals up 6-8"...Chuck in 2-3" LES for dessert and voila, 10". Quit your bitchin! ;)

IMO, Not gonna happen and its not 12hrs unless your including LE which I am not. Synoptically I don't think this is impressive at all as its mostly an open wave with a large area of warm advection snows with virtually no upper lvl support but we're lucky the mid-lvls make up for what the upper lvls are lacking or else we'd see much less. If we see 10", then I'll pat you on the back but NOT until then :lol:, as I think we're in bust mode, lol! Worcester will do better than us, guaranteed!

And I'm not bitchin as I could actually care less as I'm so sick of this horrific nickel and dime bull****.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

IMO, Not gonna happen and its not 12hrs unless your including LE which I am not. Synoptically I don't think this is impressive at all as its mostly an open wave with a large area of warm advection snows with virtually no upper lvl support but we're lucky the mid-lvls make up for what the upper lvls are lacking or else we'd see much less. If we see 10", then I'll pat you on the back but NOT until then :lol:, as I think we're in bust mode, lol! Worcester will do better than us, guaranteed!

And I'm not bitchin as I could actually care less as I'm so sick of this horrific nickel and dime bull****.

Yeah, it really will be a 10-12 hour duration.  Not including LES.  It'll take LES to get to double digits but thats always been the case with this one.  I dont know why people seem bummed out.   And ORH is going over to gruel and then a driving rain after 3-4". And they will be the "winners" in SNE...

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

0z NAM / 0Z GFS qpf's:

KBGM  1.14" / 0.67"

KALB  0.96" / 0.75"

KSYR. 0.75" / 0.48"

KROC  0.46" / 0.41"

KBUF  0.41" / 0.38"

My call (Synoptic only):  BGM 9.5"   ALB 10.5"  SYR 8.5"  ROC 6.5" BUF 5.0"

Sounds reasonable to me. Isn’t that hat we’ve been expecting for days?  Except for a couple of runs a few days ago we were never going to get a foot out of this one. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’m at 5 degrees right now so this is going to be a high ratio event. Does anyone know how the snow growth parameters look?

I'm at 12 degrees (closer to the storm LOL), but I have to figure ratios will be 12:1 min.  Not sure on where best UVV aligns with snow growth region.  That's always a kick in the ass when they don't align and you end up with "rice snow" and crappy dendrites.  That's how we could bust low.  And model snowfall maps have no clue on that. None.  Perhaps AFDs will mention...(KBGM AFD below) 

Not much has changed with the overall philosophy for the
upcoming winter storm. There is expected to be an intense period
of large-scale lift from about 8 am-5 pm, as CNY/NEPA resides
within a well developed upper jet entrance region and a strong
area of mid-level frontogenesis. Thermal profiles support all
snow through midday, with snowfall rates occasionally in the
1-2"/hour range foreseen.
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I'm at 12 degrees (closer to the storm LOL), but I have to figure ratios will be 12:1 min.  Not sure on where best UVV aligns with snow growth region.  That's always a kick in the ass when they don't align and you end up with "rice snow" and crappy dendrites.  That's how we could bust low.  And model snowfall maps have no clue on that. None.  Perhaps AFDs will mention...

They do NOT align in KFZY anyway but I don't know about KSYR though.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

If the 00Z NAM is correct then we should hit double digits cause it has some nice LE behind the system.  A moist cyclonic flow but just for a few hrs and it could be a few to several inches. Both the 700 and 850 lp's are quite ideal.  One thing I find interesting is how it gets to about KPIT then heads ENE from there and it at that point when we can get some intense rates as she pivots and hauls azz off to the ENE all the while pumping a SOutherly flow right into SNE, lol!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Posted
13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

They do NOT align in KFZY anyway but I don't know about KSYR though.

 

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The parachutes that fell for 3-4 hours on Sunday made all the difference in that storm. We need to have dendrites like that if this is to over perform. 

I perused some model Skew-T's for height of storm.  Not perfect alignment of Omega and Snow Growth Zones, but not putrid. NAM better looking than GFS which maybe explains some qpf differences. NAM UVV's scream while GFS are pedestrian, which is pretty typical...although best UVV looks to be just under the ideal Snow Growth Zone.

download (1).png

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

 

I perused some model Skew-T's for height of storm.  Not perfect alignment of Omega and Snow Growth Zones, but not putrid. NAM better looking than GFS which maybe explains some qpf differences. NAM UVV's scream while GFS are pedestrian, which is pretty typical...although best UVV looks to be just under the ideal Snow Growth Zone.

Agreed so at this point, who really knows but if its anything but dendrites then all bets are off for totals.  I'm not sure those variables are included in model data or not as far as snow growth is.  I think it should be incorporated as it really makes all the difference in the world synoptically!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Posted
5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Agreed so at this point, who really knows but if its anything but dendrites then all bets are off for totals.  I'm not sure those variables are included in model data or not as far as snow growth is.  I think it should be incorporated as it really makes all the difference in the world synoptically!

My understanding is that the various snow maps don't look at SGZ vs Omega. They are either straight ratios or some temp based algo...Kuchera.  So basically, they roughly work unless there's a significant misalignment...or an ideal situation where dendrite production and size are optimized. I think.

And I know Euro snow maps used to fail due to not distinguishing mixed precip from snow...basically if surface was 0C or less, it counts as snow...which is rubbish in many cases. Not sure if that's all been fixed or not with Euro...

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

This was the NWS yesterday, not sure what changed since then..

  

The highest values east of Lake
Ontario will also likely be attributed to an exceptionally deep
dendritic growth zone (10-15k ft) being forecast. For what its
worth...typically values average closer to 5k ft...so VERY efficient
snow making should be anticipated for that region
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Well we'll know in about 5 hours as this thing is flying to the NE and its juiced, I gotta say, with both the Atlantic and the Gulf transporting copious amounts of moisture North and East.  If there was a semblance of a -NAO to slow this down by 6-10 hrs, we would be buried for sure, but I can say what ifs for days, lol, with the same outcome, its not gonna happen, lol!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

This was the NWS yesterday, not sure what changed since then..

  


The highest values east of Lake
Ontario will also likely be attributed to an exceptionally deep
dendritic growth zone (10-15k ft) being forecast. For what its
worth...typically values average closer to 5k ft...so VERY efficient
snow making should be anticipated for that region

That had to do with last nights and today's LES no, and not tomorrows event, but I could be wrong.  It is very unusual to get a snow growth region of 10-15k ft during a synoptic event as its closer to the 5K range.  It can happen in LES cause of such large lapse rates and usually occurs after a AF passage. Temps need to be between -12 and -17C for snow to grow efficiently and to get an area of 12-15k Ft is quite anamolous even in LES nevermind Synoptic events.

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