Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This was the NWS yesterday, not sure what changed since then.. The highest values east of Lake Ontario will also likely be attributed to an exceptionally deep dendritic growth zone (10-15k ft) being forecast. For what its worth...typically values average closer to 5k ft...so VERY efficient snow making should be anticipated for that region Yeah I think that's what the previous Skew T is showing, that I posted. The DGZ is up at 500-600mb level. If we had any real Mets, with experience, in here perhaps they could comnent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 This is valid tomorrow at 4pm and it looks ideal for snow growth al the greatest Omega values are colocated with the greatest RH and the snow growth region which is only 3600ft thick. Theres actually 2 areas of enhanced omega, one between 500 and 700mb and another between 300-500mb but the latter is quite dry so the bottom one will suffice, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This is valid tomorrow at 4pm and it looks ideal for snow growth al the greatest Omega values are colocated with the greatest RH and the snow growth region which is only 3600ft thick. Yup, agreed. That doesn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 p&c forecast showing 5”-9” which seems reasonable, with middle being 7” makes this a low end warning event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I think thats why in a real arctic airmass, the DGZ is on the deck and the airmass dries up, unless seeded by some process like a long lake fetch. So you get generally sh!tty dendrite size. It snows all day and vis and according to be low but an inch accumulates. We've seen that a few times recently. Exactly and according to tomorrow's 00Z skew t we dry out Synoptically but an inversion at about 775mb keeps us locked in with overcast skies and perhaps freezing drizzle before some true LES sets in a bit later. This is why I said this would be a 9-10hr event 8-6pm if that, but like I said, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Basically a 6 hr storm on the euro lol At least rates will be nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Awesome example of an ideal LES scenario for areas to the E-SE of Lake Ontario and if this in fact occurs, then we will definitely see double digit totals for sure. Snow growth is super large and ideal as it crosses the RH values but omegas aren't ideal but in LES they don't have to be but snow growth it to the deck practically so we'd have snowballs falling for a few hrs. Winds are also lined up nicely with no shear in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The jump east kills us from getting some of the heavier precipitation to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Basically a 6 hr storm on the euro lol At least rates will be nice.. Thats exactly what I'm afraid of so we better hope rates are ideal as well as snow growth cause if not we're gonna have a lot of busts out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: The jump east kills us from getting some of the heavier precipitation to the south.. It hits a wall in CPA then jumps to SE CT and ENE from there but who's to say its right, as it hasn't been all to good this yr, but the GFS has, so we're screwed either way, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 could be interesting. Stolen from Cranky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 That’s HREF btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I will say it looks spectacular on both radar and satellite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I don't think this does a center jump. That's a mistake people are making or reading into model output between time frames and it's what we're used to seeing. This isn't a coastal redevelopment scenario in any way, shape or form. It's a developing wave of low presdure caught up in fast flow, courtesy of +NAO conditions. So the slp is gonna ride up the Apps, over Scranton and on up into SNE on the way NE. And it's why SNE will turnover ptypes type to liquid with a receding HP up northeast and NYC sees almost all rain. Theres no mechanism to circulate cold air in...it just gets pushed out ahead of the slp. Other than perhaps some damming effect in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 We need this to come in quicker than first anticipated but its looks to be right on schedule. It doesn't look like we're gonna have to waste any precip on saturating the column as were at 80% humidity already and im at 12F with a dp of 7F so not a long ways off from saturation. We may not have much 500MB energy but we definitely have it up at 300mb so that should definitely help as there's a substantial jet streak that'll pass right over the region and we should be in the RE region of the jet with enhanced lift so all in all, not bad only for the speed. Wicked warm air advection as well so precip should continue to blossom throughout the area the next few hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I don't think this does a center jump. That's a mistake people are making or reading into model output between time frames and it's what we're used to seeing. This isn't a coastal redevelopment scenario in any way, shape or form. It's a developing wave of low presdure caught up in fast flow, courtesy of +NAO conditions. So the slp is gonna ride up the Apps, over Scranton and on up into SNE on the way NE. And it's why SNE will turnover ptypes type to liquid with a receding HP up northeast and NYC sees almost all rain. Theres no mechanism to circulate cold air in...it just gets pushed out ahead of the slp. Other than perhaps some damming effect in NE. I completely and vehemently disagree but that's the beauty of the weather, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I will however say this, the EURO definitely 100% shows a jump in one form or another while the NAM shows exactly what you described. Synoptically, it doesn't make sense that this would redevelop cause there is no semblance of any blocking or -NAO so your probably right but the EURO is definitely showing some kind of jump as well as the GFS so thats why they are so much more paltry than the NAm and some of the other Meso's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Perhaps we can just dump the GFS and the EURO and just go with the NAM and basically do a SNE and pick the model that shows the most snow for the area and go with it, or hope it pans out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I completely and vehemently disagree but that's the beauty of the weather, lol. If you are referring to my redevelopment statement, I don't see how you can. The slp never redevelops offshore, it plows NE...theres not even a closed feature at 850, 700 mb levels. This is clearly shown on GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 What an ideal track for the whole area and man if it was 6 hrs slower we'd all see double digits. If this comes a bit further West, all bets are off, we all go above the 10" mark easily and by the looks of the radar and satellite, I'd think armageddon is imminent, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If you are referring to my redevelopment statement, I don't see how you can. The slp never redevelops offshore, it plows NE...theres not even a closed feature at 850, 700 mb levels. This is clearly shown on GFS and NAM. Thats what I said, it happens on the EURO and to an extent the GFS but not the NAM at least that's how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 HRRR is ticking 10:1 totals up each run. Now giving Monroe 6” which would extrapolate to 9”. It’s got a handle on the explosion of Precip down south. Its an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I keep looking at that track and I say to myself, how are we not getting at least 12" but then I see the amount of time it will be precipitating cause if it does sn for 10hrs at varying intensities all above 1" then we have a chance to see at least 10" no? We'll all know with the first flakes that fall, I know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well time to rack out. Mercifully, it's almost Nowcast time! We'll see how this pig plays out and hopefully learn somethings from it. We always do. I'm hoping we get some more precip thrown west for our WNY froends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not a fan of NW events lol Always seem to miss to the south ..Euro has this same exact look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nice big middle finger of no precip right over WNY. Don’t remember what model spit this out but I do remember someone posted an image of this happening exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 You guys in WNY are going to go from no snow to a thumping 1-2"/hr snow in a hurry, so enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 No snow reports out there? Whats up with you guys, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: You guys in WNY are going to go from no snow to a thumping 1-2"/hr snow in a hurry, so enjoy! I’m under pretty heavy returns and it’s not even snowing moderately yet alone heavy and flake size is horrendous, like little sugar grains... if it keeps up like this all day we’ll see an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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