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Hoosier

January 11-13 Winter Storm

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15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Once a final snow map comes out it will be easier to see, but there was no band stretching several states that was originally forecast by models. Not even close. Upstate NY (lake enhancement?) was to be the winner, that was clear yesterday. When I made that post that was after skimming pns statements from ILN, PIT, CLE, BUF. The highest report I saw anywhere was naturally in BUF and it was 10.6 at rochester.

 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

It was a solid hit for almost all of New York. 6-15" on average across the entire state. 

Some posters from Walworth NY are saying 17-18" totals. Obviously some lake enhancement likely.

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Glad you finally scored. Im 50/50 on those kind of storms. The statitician in me hates them lol. Because it is hard to measure. The snowstorm enthusiast in me likes the drifts but with drifts come grass blades haha. Even our bit of snow was blowing around.


We tend to get a lot of blowing and drifting snow here after the storm passes and the winds kick up. We have had it numerous times this winter alone. Christmas day was a day full of snow blowing and drifting but the storm itself on Christmas Eve was calm. (That alone is a huge bonus point to the winter grade).

 

As for the entire storm doing that? We had quite a few of them in 2013-14, our winter that rewrote history.

Yea we were on the warm side of that jan2014 storm....one I would have loved for all the reasons I mentioned.   

Not many grass blades showing, but I guess if I had to find something negative about windy storms, that would be it.  Then again you are probably one of those weenies that won't use a snowblower because you don't get to have those big piles of snow...:P

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

It was a solid hit for almost all of New York. 6-15" on average across the entire state. 

Some posters from Walworth NY are saying 17-18" totals. Obviously some lake enhancement likely.

That pns statement wasnt there when i looked lol. that is fresh off the presses. But as said there was no question ny would be the winner. im assuming its the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the state that had 6+? By the time you get to ALB looks like just a few inches and of course nothing in nyc.

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Just now, buckeye said:

Yea we were on the warm side of that jan2014 storm....one I would have loved for all the reasons I mentioned.   

Not many grass blades showing, but I guess if I had to find something negative about windy storms, that would be it.  Then again you are probably one of those weenies that won't use a snowblower because you don't get to have those big piles of snow...:P

Actually I have a wide driveway now. And I want to use my snowblower in bigger snows but its not working properly. Its an easy fix but I just havent bothered. But I dont mind shoveling. Have a few ancient icy piles still (below the fresh coating) but those tropical dews do a number.

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11 hours ago, snowcaine said:

Just painful how close we were.

Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 10.36.23 PM.png

Yes. This is one storm I would like to forget. Perhaps among the most frustrating in years for Toronto. The flash freeze, rapid temperature drop was one for the books, though. We went from 51 F on Friday morning to +6 F this morning. Among the most amazing frontal passages I've ever experienced...so that's some consolation.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That pns statement wasnt there when i looked lol. that is fresh off the presses. But as said there was no question ny would be the winner. im assuming its the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the state that had 6+? By the time you get to ALB looks like just a few inches and of course nothing in nyc.

Western, central and northern nys all got 6-12 some sweet spots 12-16”

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On January 11, 2018 at 7:46 PM, OHweather said:

After an exhaustive review, some thoughts...

Temps are a bit warmer in the warm sector ahead of the front than modeled and also cool a bit quicker right behind the front. Heights are running a little higher ahead of the trough than 12z and 18z models had, though it's a small difference. The northern stream shortwave may be diving SE a bit less aggressively than modeled as well. This is supported by WV loops showing the southwestern vort max with the northern stream shortwave clearly diving in a bit behind the shortwave that becomes our storm as opposed to towards or ahead of it (which would tend to force the storm farther east). At the moment, the models appear to be perhaps a tad too far east with the developing surface low over western LA/AR, though it's messy right now and not well-defined. I also don't like that some models have the low moving ESE across AL/GA tomorrow despite the trough being slightly negatively tilted...not sure if they're jumping around due to a bit of convective feedback.

All in all, although there aren't huge differences these obs suggest the farther SE models may be incorrect. I ended up going a bit NW of the Euro for that reason. Keep in mind the GFS, UKMET, and some hi-res models (especially the ARW which is way overdone) have snow a good bit NW of the Euro, so it's not like there's no guidance support. It may ultimately come down to whether or not there's enough of a positive feedback with the developing cyclone tonight into tomorrow to force enough of a negative tilt to keep the low west of the Apps a little longer. Obs suggest it may occur and a lot of higher-res stuff shows it, but the models that are farther SE still create a good bit of uncertainty. Ultimately, here's my forecast snow/sleet.  Included 2-4" for far NW OH due to short-term models showing a beefier fgen band in that area late morning into the afternoon, and this does extrapolate towards Detroit and Fort Wayne too.

5a58053b341ce_1-12snownobanner.png.51a3251af30f195792f2b7dc1107f665.png 

I panicked yesterday and cut back too much.  This was a little off in some areas (just a bit too far NW) but I think verified better than my changed call yesterday.  Both were ok in a lot of areas but the earlier call seemed to do a bit better than the final.  Ugh.  Highest I've seen so far is 8.7" in Cambridge, but a lot of reports right around 6" or so from south of Columbus and east/northeast. 

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Agree with Buckeye. The wind made this a great snow. This pic is in the middle of my screened in porch. About a quarter inch of snow covering everything I store there to protect from the weather, lol. In 18 years living here I can't remember a snow drift inside the screened in porch!b7dd90678dbdeb5ff2d5b458b96324b4.jpg

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk

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11 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Not enough snow fell and this is exactly what a advisory is for. Not strong enough for blizzard warnings either. It is what it is...........

Frankly, I don't get the big deal. This is about what was expected. A bunch of virga coupled with stronger bands once the snow started around 7. Very slow periods due to the poor formation. What could have been...........

Ended up with at least 4" and likely a little more as an accurate measurement was hard to get. So technically snowfall wasn't enough for a warning. That said it was snowing moderate to at times heavy and with the strong winds made visibilities near white out. Many counties had level 1 emergencies and a couple even had level 2. You don't see that with advisory snows. Warning was certainly warranted in this case.

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

I panicked yesterday and cut back too much.  This was a little off in some areas (just a bit too far NW) but I think verified better than my changed call yesterday.  Both were ok in a lot of areas but the earlier call seemed to do a bit better than the final.  Ugh.  Highest I've seen so far is 8.7" in Cambridge, but a lot of reports right around 6" or so from south of Columbus and east/northeast. 

You didnt do bad, considering how the modeling was handling the strength of the storm. I thoroughly enjoy your posts. They're very informative. Sometimes very long winded, but much thought goes into them. Here was my first call I made on Thursday and my final call made Friday morning.. wish I could find an actual totals map to see how I did, but of all the predictions I seen, I'm the only one I seen mentioning blizzard like conditions. Guess that's a plus for an amateur lol. On a scale of 1-10 I'd give this system a solid 7. I agree with Buckeye, best storm for central Ohio since March of 08

snowflakes-background-10846-picsay11.jpeg

snowflakes-background-10846-picsayhjgfh.jpeg

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

I panicked yesterday and cut back too much.  This was a little off in some areas (just a bit too far NW) but I think verified better than my changed call yesterday.  Both were ok in a lot of areas but the earlier call seemed to do a bit better than the final.  Ugh.  Highest I've seen so far is 8.7" in Cambridge, but a lot of reports right around 6" or so from south of Columbus and east/northeast. 

The only thing I see wrong with your map is the color of Lake Erie's water. We only wish... :P I'm glad you guys got a nice storm. Enjoy!

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Normally I follow storms because I enjoy the snow.  This one was an exception. I was part of a group of amateur radio operators supporting an orienteering race in Hoosier National Forest for 250 racers.  This is a 48-hour continuous race.  The race went on as scheduled but conditions getting to our site with gear was not fun.  Besides the white-knuckle drive on Friday, we got a GMC 4x4 truck and trailer stuck in two holes at the same time.  Luckily a tow strap and another vehicle got us out.  

The good news is racers completed the first leg of race in the first 24 hours.  Usually, stragglers (newbies) take all 48 hours.  This allowed my small crew to bail early ahead of the next clipper.  Yay!
 

stuck.png

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