Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Wakefield VA AFD: A spectacular cyclone is developing ~175mi ESE of Cape Lookout this evening with rapidly cooling cloud tops and convection on the NW periphery of the low. MSAS analysis depicts a 996mb low as of 0230z. However, buoy 41002 225nm S of Cape Hatteras has a pressure of 992mb. Snow is developing locally across SE VA/interior NE NC to the Ern Shore with the dry airmass now retreating to the N, and rain for coastal NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. I don't know that I'd go that far (other than weenies will be weenies). We see the limitations of modeling up here with the lakes...all the time. IMO NWP did a good job with this system as it has shown a pretty consistent track somewhere east or over the 40/70 Benchmark for days now. The Incoming trough axis was positive tilt east of the Mississippi River, needed to be more neutral at that point, along with downstream blocking/ridging being better. It's a real close call but by the time it started going negative tilt...with the downstream block sort of self generated (+NAO)....the system slides out stage right and doesn't hook or hug coastline. I think this was foreseeable by pros and also well modeled in the various NWP suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I don't know that I'd go that far (other than weenies will be weenies). We see the limitations of modeling up here with the lakes...all the time. IMO NWP did a good job with this system as it has shown a pretty consistent track somewhere east or over the 40/70 Benchmark for days now. The Incoming trough axis was positive tilt east of the Mississippi River, needed to be more neutral at that point, along with downstream blocking/ridging being better. It's a real close call but by the time it started going negative tilt...with the downstream block sort of self generated (+NAO)....the system slides out stage right and doesn't hook or hug coastline. I think this was foreseeable by pros and also well modeled in the various NWP suites. I totally agree that human input is necessary with meso scale stuff like LES. The models don’t have that sort of resolution. YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I’m sitting here thinking about why this can’t go west and it occurred to me that our local wx kinda demonstrates why. If we had a more phased storm, anything of the lakes would be on a N flow. Instead, and due to the GL trough and cold core, we have LES on a SW wind. Probably self evident to you guys. It’s so complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Over/Under on number of times "death band" is used in NE threads? It's already started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: You can also see the moisture feed just halt as it gets just to the SE of NYC. Don't know exactly whats causing that but it doesn't look good. I don't even like our chances of wrap around moisture to enhance or spray or whatever is coming off of Lake Ontario. I think once again places up closer to the lake shore gets the brunt of this event. Oswego Pulaski and Mexico and perhaps Fulton should see appreciable snows, but down here it just doesn't bode well for much accumulation so good luck to all. At least we now have a radar to b**ch over, lol! All over the place as u would expect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Here SE of the Lake we'll be lucky to receive 2-4" for the whole event. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I totally give up! Just want out of this horrifically cold dry pattern, YUK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I totally give up! Just want out of this horrifically cold dry pattern, YUK! This is more like it. We need something to mix up this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I totally give up! Just want out of this horrifically cold dry pattern, YUK! This cold dry pattern gave areas of NY near historic snows. It just wasn’t you. It was all about the constant march of clippers directly north of Lake Ontario. 50 miles south and you woulda been good. But you are in luck. This LP will shake up the entire hemispheric regime.,So we lay down new tracks. Nobody knows what they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is more like it. We need something to mix up this pattern. Looks fantastic to me as I haven't washed my car since November, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looks like KBUF might hit this convergence band over the Eastern Counties of Lake Ontario. Winds In the lower levels are starting to veer to the WNW and at the same time Moisture from the Coastal is streaming up from the ESE with a quickness in the upper levels. Already had some flurries but it looks like the band may set up a bit later maybe more closer to 13-14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 What I also see going on is, the band of LE that got going on a SW flow last night is starting to quickly veer to the NW, which will drag this band to the S&E into Oswego County and eventually it should interact with the Coastal moisture to start enhancing the precip to the SE of the lake. This scenario can get quite interesting but I won't hold my breath that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 First flakes here...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just on the outside of this band, coming down pretty good, monster size flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It definitely think this system will get some snow all the way back here, albeit light, 39 minutes ago, Syrmax said: First flakes here...FWIW. Not worth much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I'm hoping that massive dryslot slams into NE and wrecks their whole day, lol! But I doubt it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Awesome size dendrites falling right now which is certainly not dense but rather fluffy with no wind so its just falling straight down and it looks absolutely awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snowing lightly but steadily here. As you said flake size is good, little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Heavy band of LES here...about 1"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snowing pretty good in Irondequoit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Picked up a good 2-3” this morning, currently just some flurries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks fantastic to me as I haven't washed my car since November, lol! Sign me up. I don't care about washing my car, I just want it to warm up enough to melt the ever growing ice dams off my roof...then it can do whatever it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I have a squall coming through with hugh parachutes coming down it just looks awesome, lol! New England is finally experiencing what we often experience but when there's 4 million ppl, it then becomes a complete headache. New York is under a State of Emergency not because of snow but rather the dangerously cold temps that are incoming after this system heads off to our N&E. I think this storm ended up, definitely close enough for us to have some fun here the next few days and it can get real fun if some Moisture hangs around a bit longer than expected. I haven't even checked the 12Z runs as I've been tracking this beast of a Nor'Easter. Just an Epic sattelirte view of this Extreme Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Latest Nmm/Arw/3k nam all have similar looks, some one should do well even if it takes a while lol..Granted none of these models had much, if anything, over Oswego co. this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I have a squall coming through with hugh parachutes coming down it just looks awesome, lol! New England is finally experiencing what we often experience but when there's 4 million ppl, it then becomes a complete headache. New York is under a State of Emergency not because of snow but rather the dangerously cold temps that are incoming after this system heads off to our N&E. I think this storm ended up, definitely close enough for us to have some fun here the next few days and it can get real fun if some Moisture hangs around a bit longer than expected. I haven't even checked the 12Z runs as I've been tracking this beast of a Nor'Easter. Just an Epic sattelirte view of this Extreme Event. In the end, it came pretty far west. You were mostly correct sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Impressive storm, but that "death band" blather on other subforums is eye-rolling. I'm more interested in winds/coastal flooding than the 10-15 inch coverage, which we get multiple times a year around the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: In the end, it came pretty far west. You were mostly correct sir. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Me too You too Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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