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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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38 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And there you have it. Epic fail here. We were just cut back to an advisory in the BTV area.

I have been so frustrated with this storm.  Really wanted "the big one".  A couple of runs got me up to 1.2" or so.  Everything is now backing down.  18Z NAM still gives me 1" but that is always overdone.  I was hoping for 10".  Now I will settle for 8" although better ratios up here on the hill may help me.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have been so frustrated with this storm.  Really wanted "the big one".  A couple of runs got me up to 1.2" or so.  Everything is now backing down.  18Z NAM still gives me 1" but that is always overdone.  I was hoping for 10".  Now I will settle for 8" although better ratios up here on the hill may help me.

Yeah for sure. I wouldn't mind if it were January but it is getting late. I wasn't feeling this from the beginning but last night had me ignoring that for a bit and then it went against us LOL.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have been so frustrated with this storm.  Really wanted "the big one".  A couple of runs got me up to 1.2" or so.  Everything is now backing down.  18Z NAM still gives me 1" but that is always overdone.  I was hoping for 10".  Now I will settle for 8" although better ratios up here on the hill may help me.

I cant really complain about this winter, been pretty solid here. This will be my 10th 6" or greater event this winter which seems like a lot. No big events, just a whole bunch of medium sized ones.

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I cant really complain about this winter, been pretty solid here. This will be my 10th 6" or greater event this winter which seems like a lot. No big events, just a whole bunch of medium sized ones.

I do have to say that at around 5pm the snow came in like a wall.  Right now I have heavy snow, vis perhaps 750 feet.  I wonder where the pivot point will set up?  Can see that band of very heavy returns just sitting.  We still have the shot next week too although the 18Z GFS reversed its trend a bit and went back south.  

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The mountains are eating up anything that tries to come this way. This is the opposite feeling of Pi Day for sure.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The mountains are eating up anything that tries to come this way. This is the opposite feeling of Pi Day for sure.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

One of the model runs yesterday was showing that deform band that is in NW Mass right now up in BTV, that's how off it was--frickin Nam.

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One of the model runs yesterday was showing that deform band that is in NW Mass right now up in BTV, that's how off it was--frickin Nam.
Yeah our goose is cooked for sure. Advisory snows may be the high end at this point lol.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Here is the new map :(

07MAR18C.jpg

Thanks, I was going to post the updated maps was too busy this afternoon.  Comparing with the previous map, it looks like things were scaled back a couple inches on average, with some spots a bit more and some a bit less.  Most notable was that change to Winter Weather Advisories in the Champlain Valley and off to the west of the Northern Adirondacks:

07MAR18B.jpg

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Extremely heavy snow right now.  Snow globe. That band over me moving NW is intense.  Meanwhile, S NH is getting lighter snow.  Beggars can't be choosers but wish this was during daylight.  I marked various trees with the drone but have no idea of actual vis,  must be around 1/8.

20180307_191000.jpg

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Extremely heavy snow right now.  Snow globe. That band over me moving NW is intense.  Meanwhile, S NH is getting lighter snow.  Beggars can't be choosers but wish this was during daylight.  I marked various trees with the drone but have no idea of actual vis,  must be around 1/8.
20180307_191000.jpg.92c31512417b0b256e686e77f1a999b8.jpg
Nice! Enjoy it! Put the drone up tomorrow ;)

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.3

Snow Density: 12.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

 

The only snow accumulation as of 6:00 P.M. observations time was the ½” from earlier today, but snowfall was just starting back up at that point and there’s definitely been an increase in intensity over the past couple of hours.

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I was just checking on the point forecast for here at the house, and it’s got another 6-12” of snow over the next couple of days.  That's good, but I also checked the Mansfield elevation forecast, and it’s pretty impressive with something in the 10-20” range over the next few days.  We really haven’t had many of our typical multi-day snowy stretches this season, but maybe we’ll get one with the way this storm behaves.  The graphical point forecast has definitely got that look (the actual days and days of snow, vs. the fraud one we keep hearing about in the forum that never seems to come anywhere near fruition):

07MAR18D.jpg

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Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.26” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.20 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.5

Snow Density: 8.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

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4.0" pretty much on the dot in Stowe via the old car roof top method at 5:30am.

Oddly enough, there's only 3" at 1,500ft at the base of the mountain.  And it certainly looks like it.  3" of fluffier snow at the mountain with 4" of what seemed to be decent density at home.

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Had 0.1" at 9 last evening, looks like 9-10" now though I've not been out to measure.  Still mod-hvy snow, looks like several hours more before it lightens up.

Edit:  Can hear the plow outside - that will help when I go out to clear the driveway.

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Models are more robust today than I thought they would.

With 4" if we can get another half inch of QPF we could make a run at something decent today. 

HRRR through 10pm:

8pzmmdG.png

6z NAM...

vUudBxU.png

6z RGEM

syLHwg3.png

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Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.44” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.18 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 9.4

Snow Density: 10.6% H2O

Temperature: 30.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

Averaged out for the storm thus far, the snow density is right around 10% H2O here with almost half an inch of liquid down.

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All the SVT areas coming in with over 2 feet.  That was our mid-level band up north until the models shifted SE by 50-75 miles yesterday.

25" Magic

26" Stratton

Heard 27" Mount Snow but haven't seen an update.

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