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12/15 -16 /17 Sneaky Coastal


MJO812

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2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Long range HRRR is wayyyy north and west... light snow as far north as Ulster county 

If the new 0z guidance is to be believed, in literally less than 24 hours we have gone from not expecting so much as a flurry NW of the city to 1-2 inches of snow all the way up into Orange County tomorrow night. Wow, just wow. The NWS is almost guaranteed to have special weather statements issued up here tomorrow morning.  What a turn of events...

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 0z guidance is to be believed, in literally less than 24 hours we have gone from not expecting so much as a flurry NW of the city to 1-2 inches of snow all the way up into Orange County tomorrow night. Wow, just wow. The NWS is almost guaranteed to have special weather statements issued up here tomorrow morning.  What a turn of events...

It looks like the models so far have been behaving that way - unexpectedly pulling moisture and low pressure systems back to the NW almost last minute. Wondering if that's going to continue for the rest of the winter...

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll be shocked if we see more than an inch from this, but stranger things have happened before.

Why would you be shocked ? Every model is trending northwest with this and the snow is going to fall in very cold upper levels . High ratios snows.

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NWS at Upton:

Although the heaviest snowfall will remain well south of the
area, mid-upper level lift/saturation will gradually increase
into the evening, with any developing precipitation aloft
subsequently saturating low levels enough to produce at least a
dusting of snow along the coast.

A slight northward shift noted in the 18z guidance, which if
trend continues would increase potential for a light measurable
snow across at least southern and eastern portions of the Tri-
State, but at this point only a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more
than an inch of snowfall.
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Just now, husky0101 said:

NWS at Upton:


Although the heaviest snowfall will remain well south of the
area, mid-upper level lift/saturation will gradually increase
into the evening, with any developing precipitation aloft
subsequently saturating low levels enough to produce at least a
dusting of snow along the coast.

A slight northward shift noted in the 18z guidance, which if
trend continues would increase potential for a light measurable
snow across at least southern and eastern portions of the Tri-
State, but at this point only a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more
than an inch of snowfall.

18z run they quoted

Good chance of at least 1 inch

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

The Canadian has been money all season. Just wanted to give it props. Happy birthday to me, looking like a few places in south and central jersey have a shot of 2-3” of high ratio fluff. Fun little surprise.

Well the 0z Canadian is a little further SE.

 Either way I'm expecting 1-3" city/west and 2-4" city/east.  And 3-6" southern NJ. Ratios look relatively high.   We'll see what happens.  

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5 hours ago, husky0101 said:

It looks like the models so far have been behaving that way - unexpectedly pulling moisture and low pressure systems back to the NW almost last minute. Wondering if that's going to continue for the rest of the winter...

It works both ways :P If they show a nice hit a few days out, expect to get a storm cutting to our west lol

That said with three minor-moderate events in the same week, looks like the Dec 2005 analogy is working out well.

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