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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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18 minutes ago, MUWX said:

AFD leads me to believe they are going to go with an Advisory

Yeah they aren’t too bullish on the NAM

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1 minute ago, JMT417 said:

Yeah they aren’t too bullish on the NAM

Which the nam is off the charts compated to other models. It would have to be insanely wrong to get down to the amounts that SGF is forecasting though. 

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This is the confusing thing. The storm last weekend the Nam pretty much, give or take, nailed it compared to the other models. However, in past systems the nam has underperformed. So which is the underlier. Tuttle said he was throwing out the Canadian due to the excessive amounts of ice totals it was throwing out there. 

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15 minutes ago, lokee said:

This is the confusing thing. The storm last weekend the Nam pretty much, give or take, nailed it compared to the other models. However, in past systems the nam has underperformed. So which is the underlier. Tuttle said he was throwing out the Canadian due to the excessive amounts of ice totals it was throwing out there. 

There is little to no chance, that the NAM or canadian are correct. The question is will we find ourselves somewhere between those two and the GFS/euro. I think the right call is to side with the latter, but I wouldn't totally discount a slightly more significant event yet. 

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The NAM always seems to overforecast freezing rain. The 00z NAM has 0.75" to 1.18" of freezing rain accumulation near and north of Springfield MO, as well as some other various values of freezing rain from New Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic. Note: NWS gridded forecast has 0.03"- 0.08" freezing rain north of Springfield. I hope you guys don't have nasty tree damage or anything like that.  Maybe the models like to keep the inversion layer there for a longer time period than is really possible.

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Just now, Chinook said:

The NAM always seems to overforecast freezing rain. The 00z NAM has 0.75" to 1.18" of freezing rain accumulation near and north of Springfield MO, as well as some other various values of freezing rain from New Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic. Note: NWS gridded forecast has 0.03"- 0.08" freezing rain north of Springfield. I hope you guys don't have nasty tree damage or anything like that.  Maybe the models like to keep the inversion layer there for a longer time period than is really possible.

At this point the NAM is obviously high, but I think SGF is a little low. 

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6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Except the 12z NAM is back with a whole lot of freezing rain.

Yeah I see that in Eastern Kansas now. Also up through Central MO

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Another storm wasted for here probly, the usual. I will say temps are a wee bit colder than forecasted though. Heck at this point I wouldn't even mind seeing ice lol, even though I don't really like ice storms.

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
  two tenths of an inch. Isolated amounts up to a quarter of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Much of southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Untreated roads will likely become slick in spots,
  especially bridges and overpasses. The hazardous conditions will
  impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute
  across the eastern Ozarks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated power outages will be possible due
  to ice accumulation on trees and powerlines as well as windy
  conditions.

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8 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

SGF now showing pockets of Ice Accumulation forecast to be .25-.50 inches to the North of Springfield and for much of SE KS

Tab2FileL.png

Still showing only moderate confidence too. For being just hours from the event, it seems like they are just guessing. 

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Yeah, forecast changed here, winter weather advisory now for accumulating ice. 18z NAM puts out 0.39" of freezing rain here with about 1" in SE KS and W-Central MO. Temp was supposed to get up to 41 today. It's 34....

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26 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, forecast changed here, winter weather advisory now for accumulating ice. 18z NAM puts out 0.39" of freezing rain here with about 1" in SE KS and W-Central MO. Temp was supposed to get up to 41 today. It's 34....

Being from  there, I am really becoming increasingly concerned for my friends and family in Joplin. 

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ICT mentioned concern with freezing temps possibly lasting into morning commute now. Also, with a few more hours of freezing rain leading to higher amounts, they mentioned possible localized upgrades as they monitor trends. They mentioned the higher qpf amounts could lead to increased runoff which would limit the amount of ice that would accumulate on surfaces. Thus some of those models showing very high ice accumulation being over done. Basically the things to watch are surface temps and qpf. If temps hold in the upper 20's and precip isn't as heavy as predicted it could lead to more significant icing. Will be interesting to monitor trends tonight for sure. 

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Forecast was 43 today, got to 41right now its 39 (according to my backyard weather station). Tulsa says the temps will be warmer for here though tonight(38) and tomorrow than previously thought so no concerns. I dont think theres anything to worry about here but you guys up north in missouri may have to watch trends

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  The forecaster High of 45 actual 40  The accumulated ice prediction of .20 will make for a neat photo op 


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up
  to two tenths of an inch. Isolated amounts up to a quarter of
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

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If you look closely, the precipitation type in the red region (freezing rain) includes snow, drizzle (temp of 28 degrees at Wichita), freezing rain, unknown (question mark symbol... usually sleet), and rain. I'm glad I'm not there.

Vj4FSxm.jpg

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Temps rose early, got back to 40 during the early evening. Rain started and we are wet bulbing here, down to 34. Low predicted was 38, hmmmm. Another extreme close call lol

Down to 33 now, I bet thats where we hold...seems to be what we hold at during every stinkin storm haha. Darn 32 now, wow way lower on the temps than expected!

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Once again, it was Charlie Brown weather forecast here in SW MO. Lucy (the models) put the football out in front of us and then removed it at the last second. Surface temps never cooled quite enough for most of us. Some minor icing in spots, but not like the models projected. Back to a cold rain later this morning and then on to the next disappointment. Ha! Ha!

Some areas did/are getting hammered with ice. I don't envy them. Keep the ice away. 

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Once again, it was Charlie Brown weather forecast here in SW MO. Lucy (the models) put the football out in front of us and then removed it at the last second. Surface temps never cooled quite enough for most of us. Some minor icing in spots, but not like the models projected. Back to a cold rain later this morning and then on to the next disappointment. Ha! Ha!

Some areas did/are getting hammered with ice. I don't envy them. Keep the ice away. 

Another in the long line of “nothingburgers”

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KC Int'l closed earlier this morning and closed until noon, for now. I was inbound from STL to connect and go on to SAN and we got diverted back and then cancelled.

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22 minutes ago, Calderon said:

KC Int'l closed earlier this morning and closed until noon, for now. I was inbound from STL to connect and go on to SAN and we got diverted back and then cancelled.

Just read a news article where they had a plane slide off the runway in KC

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