MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 18Z with a pretty significant storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, MUWX said: 18Z with a pretty significant storm next weekend Yeah, that's the storm that's been showing up, but the GFS might be too cold. The temp difference between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS is huge. It's like -2 in Omaha, NE on the GFS while it's 34 on the Euro at 06z FRI the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: 18Z with a pretty significant storm next weekend I've been watching it past few runs. I haven't said much because, well...1 thing at a time right? But that is a mean ice storm, not to mention afterwards there's 1 day above freezing and then it doesn't get above freezing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Tulsa just barely excluded from Winter Storm Watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The cold front finally gets a push into Northeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon and through Northwest Arkansas late Friday evening/overnight Friday night as the main upper low shifts eastward into Texas. Behind the cold front...much colder air is forecast to filter into the region Friday night which will allow for precip to transition over to a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet into Saturday morning from northwest to southeast. The greater wintry mix is expected across Northeast Oklahoma before the nose of warmer temps aloft can be eroded. Ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch will be possible with to up toward a tenth of an inch for some location along the Oklahoma Kansas border. Surface temps will continue to fall Friday night through much of the Saturday as the upper low shifts east into the CWA and then Northeast into Missouri Saturday afternoon. By Saturday afternoon temps in the 20s to mid 30s are forecast from north to south. These temp profiles combined with moisture wrapping around the upper low will aid in a transition to all snow during the day Saturday from west to east before tapering off and exiting by Saturday evening. Also behind the exiting low...gusty northerly winds in the 20 to 30+ mph range will be possible which could create areas of blowing snow Saturday morning. At this time...snow accumulations of 1 to 3 with locally higher amounts could be possible along and north of I-44 with around 1 inch or so for far Northwest Arkansas before the precip ends. With these amounts and also the possible ice amounts a winter storm watch will be issued across parts of the Oklahoma Kansas border in Northeast Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 They don't want that record to fall.....LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 yeah, I think this is overdone. Not a wind chill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 LOL at the typical 1" mention for NW Arkansas, this one sounds like its a nightmare for the mets to forecast so I guess we wait to see what happens? Are things locked in now? I know its onshore and has been sampled right? Forecast is confusing to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: LOL at the typical 1" mention for NW Arkansas, this one sounds like its a nightmare for the mets to forecast so I guess we wait to see what happens? Are things locked in now? I know its onshore and has been sampled right? Forecast is confusing to say the least I don’t think models get the fully sampled data until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 What is everyone's gut feeling right now? Seeing what we have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, lokee said: What is everyone's gut feeling right now? Seeing what we have seen so far. Here in Lawrence, KS... pretty confident on seeing some ice Friday evening: freezing rain transitioning to sleet/mixed precip something between .07-.15” of ice looks probable... followed by 4-8” of snow. Kinda sucks because there’s a big basketball game on Saturday here, #3 KU vs #4 Baylor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Here in Lawrence, KS... pretty confident on seeing some ice, freezing rain transitioning to sleet/mixed precip somethings between .07-.15” of ice... followed by 4-8” of snow. Kinda sucks because there’s a big basketball game on Saturday here, #3 KU vs #4 Baylor. That may be a preview of a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Here in Lawrence, KS... pretty confident on seeing some ice Friday evening: freezing rain transitioning to sleet/mixed precip something between .07-.15” of ice looks probable... followed by 4-8” of snow. Kinda sucks because there’s a big basketball game on Saturday here, #3 KU vs #4 Baylor. Go Baylor! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Go Baylor! Bla lol Poke fan here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Up here in republic, I’m expecting 2-4” of rain. Dusting - 2” of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: LOL at the typical 1" mention for NW Arkansas, this one sounds like its a nightmare for the mets to forecast so I guess we wait to see what happens? Are things locked in now? I know its onshore and has been sampled right? Forecast is confusing to say the least I know these 18Z runs include old upper air data(aka not the on shore sampled stuff) so I’d say it’s not locked in. Plus, they’re literally going to wait until the HRRR is in 18 hr range to make those calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I’m hoping for 1-2” and expecting to be disappointed. Best chance we’ve had in years though so we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Looks at that squall line. That is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Any update from the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm expecting to get lots of rain and maybe a flake or two of snow on the exit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Doramo said: I'm expecting to get lots of rain and maybe a flake or two of snow on the exit . Me too. Normally I am rooting for the NAM and it usually caves to the EURO and/or GFS. This time I am rooting for the EURO/GFS and they will probably cave to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Oh crap GFS just surprised everyone this run. Sorry you Mo. guys. For you Mo. guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Has this been sampled?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, ouamber said: Has this been sampled?? 0z should be fully sampled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS seems markedly different from CMC/NAM/Euro as far as precip totals go (snow) and location of snowfall to an extent as well, pretty sure we know how that ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 06z HRRR 36 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6z GFS , (Woke up and could not go back to sleep.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Models come back to reality as we move closer toward the event. We will see some snow, but amounts across the board for most of us not real impressive unless something changes over the next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Well we can say we know the track but amounts are still up in the air. 12Z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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