lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z nam looks to have the low wrapping up in SW Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Really starting to feel like this one is going to end up just like every other storm has for the last half decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, MUWX said: Really starting to feel like this one is going to end up just like every other storm has for the last half decade. Would not shock me the least, is why I am glad my brain cant wrap around the models or I would be in for constant disappointment lol. One of these times we will get something, maybe. Will probly be like any other storm, turns cold after it leaves and heads by with flurries at best haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Would not shock me the least, is why I am glad my brain cant wrap around the models or I would be in for constant disappointment lol. One of these times we will get something, maybe. Will probly be like any other storm, turns cold after it leaves and heads by with flurries at best haha Only going to be cold for like 24 hours. Then back to the 50s and 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Let’s see what the ICON shows next. Nothing is off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 John Slader a Meteorologist on KFOR in Okc posted this on his FB page. " New data in! OKC & Tulsa so close to a major snow event. So close but the heaviest snow is just northwest of the I 44 zone Sat AM. Only a slight shift south on storm track and we get walloped!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z GFS at 6pm Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00Z GFS stays with the 18Z run’s thinking. There’s still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Canadian with a considerable shift South and East. That, combined with the latest gfs has me feeling good about the trend. Now we wait for the almighty Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Good luck predicting what this one is gonna do...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 06 GFS 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 06Z Euro trends south a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 We are talking the chance of snow which the topic says but looks like tomorrow could be interesting esp. points East of Okc for severe thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12Z Nam is looking funny so far....very devoid. Edit: Up to hour 54 and looking like it may be a heavy Missouri hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well that was a pretty boring NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 You aren't kidding...... Do we know if this NAM run includes sampling from the now, on-shore trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 As long as the global models stay steady I wouldn’t worry about the NAM as much. It was the last to cave in the reverse situation from December of last winter where it was still showing major snows in OK when all the other models had started jumping ship. That said...this is definitely a low confidence forecast as the parameters that need to come together just perfectly here have a razor thin margin of error on either side. Too amped and it’s congrats Kansas. Not amped enough and you get the NAM solution or what the GFS had been showing a day ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well, it might have a point on the less moisture in the 'wrap around' since there looks to be a big squall line scouring out much of the moisture out ahead of the system, and it doesn't have a big negative tilt to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 There are some pretty significant differences in how the 12z nam and 6z GFS are handling the cold air as well. At 06z Saturday the difference between the two is nearly 15 degrees for Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The 3KM NAM with a little different look than it's traditional counterpart. The biggest headache with the forecast is going to be where the system matures...along and northwest of that point, is going to be where the heaviest snow falls. Unfortunately, we may not know that until the high-res hourly runs tomorrow, even though the system will be fully sampled in later model runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Not a lot of difference between the 06z and 12z GFS. I do worry it is overdoing precip amounts back in the cold air though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Lets lock that in. The differences in the cold air continue between the NAM and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Not a lot of difference between the 06z and 12z GFS. I do worry it is overdoing precip amounts back in the cold air though. The bias with the new GFS (FV3) is actually to underdo precip on the backside of lows. Doesn’t mean it will always do that but something to keep in mind. Last three runs of GFS have been very consistent overall with the placement of the swath of snow from central OK on northeastward. It’s bounced around a bit with exact totals but that’s to be expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Living on the southeast side of Wichita I've been watching this closely as well. However, my confidence is still very low on getting significant snow here for the reasons you mentioned rockchalk. Going to have to get the negative tilt and the storm to mature quicker in order for us to see that. Then where exactly the deformation zone sets up will be key obviously. Last night's 00Z Euro would be about perfect for me in that shows the system mature and closes off the upper low just in time to see a solid snow here. Having said that, each model run will show something different as this may not be determined until shortly before, or even day of. Update: Just looked at 12Z GFS quickly and without looking at precip output I honestly don't mind the look of the trough orientation and Vort max. Just pattern recognition alone would lead me to think at least somewhere nearby would pick up a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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