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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I don't think you can see such things right now.  I don't think that's ever been true for the lakes, unless they're frozen lol.  

This is somewhat true, but the 10 day outlooks for GFS/Euro show few inches max for most of this forum. 

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still going to be very transient for awhile. 

4indices.png

Well out of those 4 pics I like the -EPO...you know im starting think back to 2009-10. If memory serves me it was a very cold January and February with a transient December...all with a mainly positive AO and NAO through that period.

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well out of those 4 pics I like the -EPO...you know im starting think back to 2009-10. If memory serves me it was a very cold January and February with a transient December...all with a mainly positive AO and NAO through that period.

New weeklies have a -AO look wire to wire, with a -NAO much of the time.

eta- NPAC looks fantastic. -EPO, and no sign of a trough out west until near the end of the run, which is early Jan. We hope. 

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19 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

The NWS maps routinely had 2-4 called out for Northern/Northeastern Monroe county.  If you flip back a few pages you can see the forecasts.  The HRR also pegged the band that hit you quite well.  I wouldnt say this was unexpected at all.  Anyway, be happy nothing but a sugar coat down south of the city.  

I actually gave the hrrr credit (and Tim) in one of my posts. The NWS maps had Irondequoit brushed by the 1-2 color. At midnight on Sunday and before any accums, my point and click had 30% of snow showers with .5" or less. I looked. If measured correctly, I got at least 4.5" snow and .5" liquid for that very same forecast period. 

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it. 

 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it.

I had a thought the other day that kind of relates to this, I think. 

What exactly do they define as "snow accumulation"? For example, I live in Chili and if I measured snow as the guidelines say over the weekend, I would officially have had trace; however, say my snowboard was chilled and didn't allow any melting, I bet I would have had an inch or more as most of my snow  fell in a handful of passing bursts of snow over the course of a few hours when temps were still in the upper 30s and melted after about 10-15 minutes, before hourly measurements could have been taken.

So I guess in my mind, over an inch did fall, but never was able to accumulate on the ground to anything more than a trace.

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2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I actually gave the hrrr credit (and Tim) in one of my posts. The NWS maps had Irondequoit brushed by the 1-2 color. At midnight on Sunday and before any accums, my point and click had 30% of snow showers with .5" or less. I looked. If measured correctly, I got at least 4.5" snow and .5" liquid for that very same forecast period. 

So their forecast was a bust in my opinion. But lake effect is horrendous to forecast off of Lake Ontario. Off the south shore, it's impossible. Areas 3 miles south of me got zero. I'm not being critical of NWS- none of Roc mets saw anything more than 1" or so. Just was loving the surprise nature of it. 

 

It's an interesting discussion and one we revisit often on here.  If the NWS was calling for clear skies or just flurries, I would say the forecast busted.  However the forecast gave most locations on the south shore at least a chance at some heavier squalls with potentially a few inches in localized areas.  If you got 1-2 inches more than the 1-2 forecast I hardly call that a bust. 

I'm very surprised at the level of accuracy that people demand from forecasters these days.  Certainly not something I envy and it makes me glad I didnt become a professional forecaster for my day job.  If I looked at the forecast and what happened that night I would give them nearly 100 percent grade with respect to timing, placement, and accumulations.  They covered their bases and no one should have been shocked unless totals got above say 6 or 8 inches (in Monroe County).  Even way down my way I figured there was a chance I would wake up to 2-3 inches or maybe bare ground  The forecast seemed good to me, but I guess I'm much more lenient. 

I'm just glad we have snow to talk about and the Rochester clan is back posting.   
 

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A little lake enhancement this weekend on a NNW flow?

Hwo
A cold front will push south across our region Saturday evening. While this front will likely generate an inch or so accumulation of snow, a prolonged 12 to 18 hour period of widespread lake enhanced snow could produce challenging travel conditions from late Saturday night into sunday night. This would include a very busy travel day on Sunday. The area that would have the highest potential for slick travel would be from Batavia to Oswego County, including the New York State Thruway

 

Afd

This
will be a stronger frontal passage...one that will usher H85 temps
as low as -12c across Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. While this is not as cold as earlier forecast...it is
certainly cold enough to establish accumulating lake snows southeast
of both lakes. The frontal passage itself should generate a coating
an inch of accumulation across the forecast area...with several
inches looking more plausible for the Chautauqua ridge and from
Wayne County east across the southern half of Oswego county. Have
raised pops to categorical for these areas. The stage will then be
set for what could be a challenging day for travel on Sunday.

 

 
Medium range ensembles remain in good agreement that a cold cyclonic
northerly flow will be in place over our region on Sunday...while
fairly deep synoptic moisture will persist. Given that H85 temps are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -12c and that there should be some
added lift from the northerly upslope flow...fairly steady snow
should be found southeast of both lakes...including along the bulk
of the New York State Thruway. While accumulations are not expected
to be significant in themselves...it could be cold enough for the
snow to be a little more greasy so that untreated roadways would be
more difficult to navigate. Stay tuned

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Nice little response off the SE of the Lake right now as was expected by local and the NWS. Too bad its rain, actually just looked, as its now snizzling @36f

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I see Cohen is struggling with the indicies like we are...his latest twitter blurbs states that while all 3 show we should be cold by beginning of december the ensembles show differently.  However he does show the GFS has been consistent in the PV weakening and shifting around by the beginning of December as well so maybe the modrls havent caught on yet.

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I see Cohen is struggling with the indicies like we are...his latest twitter blurbs states that while all 3 show we should be cold by beginning of december the ensembles show differently.  However he does show the GFS has been consistent in the PV weakening and shifting around by the beginning of December as well so maybe the modrls havent caught on yet.

There are quite a few contradictions right now. The MJO is not acting normally as there is enhanced convection in and around the Indian Ocean which argues for a ridge, but there's also EC in and around the DL, which favors a trough. The pattern is wicked progressive even with a blocky look to the H5 so verdicts out as to where we go from here. I haven't got a clue and won't even attempt to have one. One thing is the models may not be catching on yet, who knows????

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

00Z Euro has W-CNY getting into the upper 50's and with enough sunshine, we may perhaps get to the 60 degree mark, woo hoo!

If blank, model image not available

Sounds like a good day to put up the Christmas lights!  And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

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Just watched Spectrum 1's Winter outlook and its a complete rollercoaster with a +NAO most of the time.  Basically Dec= Abv avg temps, below snowfall, Jan= Abv avg temps, avg Snowfall and finally Feb= Avg temps, abv avg snowfall so I guess we'll see. I personally dont wanna see this kind of variability this Winter.  They also said not much blocking and I 100% disagree qith this because of the current Easterly QBO which promotes a blocky pattern as well as the -AO which is being forecasted by the EURO for now at least.  The Tropiocal Pacific isn'r really helping out as there are contradicting signals currently!  I say good luck to all the brave long range outlook guys out there. 

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On 11/21/2017 at 0:51 PM, DeltaT13 said:

It's an interesting discussion and one we revisit often on here.  If the NWS was calling for clear skies or just flurries, I would say the forecast busted.  However the forecast gave most locations on the south shore at least a chance at some heavier squalls with potentially a few inches in localized areas.  If you got 1-2 inches more than the 1-2 forecast I hardly call that a bust. 

I'm very surprised at the level of accuracy that people demand from forecasters these days.  Certainly not something I envy and it makes me glad I didnt become a professional forecaster for my day job.  If I looked at the forecast and what happened that night I would give them nearly 100 percent grade with respect to timing, placement, and accumulations.  They covered their bases and no one should have been shocked unless totals got above say 6 or 8 inches (in Monroe County).  Even way down my way I figured there was a chance I would wake up to 2-3 inches or maybe bare ground  The forecast seemed good to me, but I guess I'm much more lenient. 

I'm just glad we have snow to talk about and the Rochester clan is back posting.   
 

Agree with this.  Trying to assign a specific percentage accuracy/inaccuracy to judge snowfall forecasts is a noobs game.  For this past event earlier this week, the forecast for CNY worked out pretty well. Generally 6-8" (isolated 10") were forecast for much of Onandaga county.  Based on CoCoRAHS reports I saw, and what fell IMBY (5") actual totals probably came in an inch or two light so maybe didn't verify the Warning criteria verbatim, but it was close enough.  If the event has fizzled and generally only 1-3" fell in the warning area, that would have been a forecast bust IMO. So I'd probably consider the first Warning to have verified though maybe not quite meeting the strict definition of Warning criteria (7"+ in 24 hrs?) snowfall.

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23 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Just watched Spectrum 1's Winter outlook and its a complete rollercoaster with a +NAO most of the time.  Basically Dec= Abv avg temps, below snowfall, Jan= Abv avg temps, avg Snowfall and finally Feb= Avg temps, abv avg snowfall so I guess we'll see. I personally dont wanna see this kind of variability this Winter.  They also said not much blocking and I 100% disagree qith this because of the current Easterly QBO which promotes a blocky pattern as well as the -AO which is being forecasted by the EURO for now at least.  The Tropiocal Pacific isn'r really helping out as there are contradicting signals currently!  I say good luck to all the brave long range outlook guys out there. 

Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. 

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22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. 

I agree the long range looks a little better, but it's still to far out to take seriously at all. The last 2 years showed the long range getting cold quite a few times and never came to fruition. As we got closer it kept getting pushed farther and farther back in time and never happened. Until I see it within 7-10 days its tough to get excited. 

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Please tell me your not seriously considering that outlook? The spectrum weather is on par with accuweather in that neither are all that credible...been on the Mid-Atlantic boards since yesterday and they are all over the lr with a pattern to colder weather on the EPS, GEFS, and the weeklies after the first week of december. All indicues point to this and we are in no way looking like the past two winters. 

I only commented on it, doesn't mean I agree with it, lol, as It can't be any more farther from my thoughts. Their +NAO forecast for the Winter is laughable, big time, as Easterly QBO's combined with Solar Min are notorious signals for blocking sometimes locking in, so as I was watching I was saying, what are they looking at? Also low end Nina's are known for bringing the Northern most States the cold and snow but their forecast is for abv avg temps most of the time.

Just because we disagree, doesn't mean it'll be a bust right, so we'll revisit verification time in March or end if Feb!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I only commented on it, doesn't mean I agree with it, lol, as It can't be any more farther from my thoughts. Their +NAO forecast for the Winter is laughable, big time, as Easterly QBO's combined with Solar Min are notorious signals for blocking sometimes locking in, so as I was watching I was saying, what are they looking at? Also low end Nina's are known for bringing the Northern most States the cold and snow but their forecast is for abv avg temps most of the time.

Just because we disagree, doesn't mean it'll be a bust right, so we'll revisit verification time in March or end if Feb!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Until I see the Pacific cooperate, I won't get excited. 

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There is high confidence that temperatures will average above normal for our region during this period. While this will not be unusual in itself...it will be given the forecast hemispheric pattern. A rather strong Greenland block will be in place...but rather than having a closed upstream low over eastern Canada...the flow will be progressive and pacific in nature. This will keep true cold air locked north of 50N...with only brief...transitory visits of chilly air. It also does not help that the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is on the other side of the pole. On a day to day basis...

Basically in a nut shell, this is our weather
For the foreseeable future.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk


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