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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame.

 I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol 

0z seems to be locking in on a GL cutter for this weekend with a signature LES event through sunday...on the flip side the meteorologistfrom WIVB 4 in buffalo actually muttered the words "potential snowstorm " next weekend. 

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4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

0z seems to be locking in on a GL cutter for this weekend with a signature LES event through sunday...on the flip side the meteorologistfrom WIVB 4 in buffalo actually muttered the words "potential snowstorm " next weekend. 

Which one? Santos and Cejka are only good ones left. 

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6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame.

 I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol 

It's been awhile since we've had a white xmas here too. That timeframe is still a month out so tough to get too excited just yet. But I agree it looks so much better than the last 2 years. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's been awhile since we've had a white xmas here too. That timeframe is still a month out so tough to get too excited just yet. But I agree it looks so much better than the last 2 years. 

Last December was actually about a good as gets around here for Rochester, except for a four day period right around Christmas when we hit our max temps for the month and went completely snowless (That said, it was still technically "White" in Rochester with at least an inch on the ground)  

Now December 2015, that month was a complete loss.  Absolutely unreal temps and less than 3 inches total on the month.  

Roc_CF6_12_2016.thumb.PNG.1ecf45faf0e8bc0dfde9512e0d99f47e.PNG

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Which one? Santos and Cejka are only good ones left. 

Actually the PSU grad they hired a few years ago seems much better than Cejka, who has been pushing verbatim model output for a while now.

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38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS looks pretty robust for an event late weekend/early next week from what I can see (Tug area?). Been watching for a few days now. Long way out...

(Looks anxiously at calendar)

Yeah looks good for the tug so far, still to far out for specifics and cold enough air for strong LES is still in question. 

CIPS analogs for that timeframe:

Image

Image

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

If it was a few degrees colder we’d probably pick up a couple inches, snowing pretty good out right now, sticking to colder surfaces..

My now empty flower beds were slush covered this morning.

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15 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Rt 31 special!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I'll buy that for a dollar!

0.4" snow here this a.m.  10:1 ratio w/ temp of 32.

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First mention from KBUF about LES next weekend.

Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First mention from KBUF about LES next weekend.

Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.

Early morning run of 6z is very juicy for a synoptic event just after the weekend storm 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Early morning run of 6z is very juicy for a synoptic event just after the weekend storm 

Yeah. LES events winds look W and then veer WNW. Don't see anything for Metro right now. To far out to predict shortwaves though. 

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Fulton to Tug special on 12z GFS. Feet of snow. 

The snowstorm the 6z showed at 240 is mire of an open wave with just light snow for thanksgiving eve and day, however what can't be argued is the amount of cold forecast for all of next week. 

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Hey all. First time posting this Fall/Winter. Looking really good for a nice start to the LES season, with an event from Sat (post-cold-front) into the following week. If 12Z GFS verified (which I doubt, but it could happen), the LES would continue through Friday, putting the Tug in the 'several' feet range. 00Z Euro breaks up the cold air and ends LES on Monday.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Fulton to Tug special on 12z GFS. Feet of snow. 

May actually get to the city of Syracuse for a time as winds veer enough to the NW, but a very brief visit, as winds once again align out of the W-WNW quickly sending whatever is occurring, North of the immediate CNY area.  H700 is chock full of goodness throughout the period with ample moisture throughout the column but as many have alluded to, temps are still in question, with a lot of mention of mixing in both disc's from both nws offices.  Last couple of Novembers have been interesting right around Thanksgiving time, last yr, although  a week later, we had the first substantial event, but after that one, there were no more, lol, as the Winter as a whole was a complete dud.  Still 6 days out so things will change, so lets hope their for the better, and not for the worse.

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