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BTRWx

Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame

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Whaa, gfs stalls east of cape hat this run. It will be onshore at 00z if this trend keeps up

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27 minutes ago, Amped said:

Whaa, gfs stalls east of cape hat this run. It will be onshore at 00z if this trend keeps up

Looks like hurricane force gusts possible on obx per wxbell this run. 

Cf was a little slower and gfs had  Maria moving further sw early on

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30 minutes ago, Amped said:

 

Yeah that cluster does seem like it's screwing with the flow above 300mb quite a bit and allowing the flow to back into the coast.

Also ..looking at this it looks like a sizeable vort package/ bag evident in the se...maybe having influence.

 

27 and 30 hours out 18z gfs

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Also ..looking at this it looks like a sizeable vort package/ bag evident in the se...maybe having influence.

 

27 and 30 hours out 18z gfs

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png

More crapvection off the florida west coast now.  00z will be very interesting

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

 

Yeah that cluster does seem like it's screwing with the flow above 300mb quite a bit and allowing the flow to back into the coast.

So this is an unrelated cluster of thunderstorms that's throwing in this unexpected variable? Lol

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So this is an unrelated cluster of thunderstorms that's throwing in this unexpected variable? Lol

Possibly, but it's not totally unrelated

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Amped..that's  pretty neat animation man..cool stuff.

especially considering it's all moving forward

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Similar to 18z, very odd solution.  Ridge sits on top of the storm for 48hrs,  but it won't turn west until the 200mb jet streak forms in the gulf and cuts off the low.  Then it shoots back west for 18hrs before the troff pushes it back east.

 

 

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Just now, Amped said:

Similar to 18z, very odd solution.  Ridge sits on top of the storm for 48hrs,  but it won't turn west until the 200mb jet streak forms in the gulf and cuts off the low.  Then it shoots back west for 18hrs before the troff pushes it back east.

 

 

:lol:

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00z GGEM is naso good for the Eastern Shore... Maria moves slowly up the Eastern Seaboard just offshore from 84-120

And I mean S L O W -- 84 its by OBX... 120 its by Ocean City... maybe a tad closer to Atlantic City... by 144 its finally gone NE out to sea

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