Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame

[losetoa6]

Gefs west of 12z

[losetoa6]

[losetoa6]

This will keep me tracking another day .lol

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This will keep me tracking another day .lol

The new data should be enough  

Once that comes in, I can really start considering my options. I wish it weren't a Wednesday  

[RevWarReenactor]

Since this is the IMBY thread, what does the current track deliver for the VA, DC, Baltimore area? I assume its nothing more than clouds, a breeze or two, and a conversation shower.

Maybe some Chesapeake Bay flooding?

Its a shame it wants to hook so hard east, if it could stay closer to the coast on its way up, I think it would be more significant.

I'd love a day off from work, or at least a bit of media hype here or there.

But for now, my goal is to see this have an official USA landfall, such would buck the "10% odds" it was given at one point.

 

[BTRWx]

14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Since this is the IMBY thread, what does the current track deliver for the VA, DC, Baltimore area? I assume its nothing more than clouds, a breeze or two, and a conversation shower.

Maybe some Chesapeake Bay flooding?

Its a shame it wants to hook so hard east, if it could stay closer to the coast on its way up, I think it would be more significant.

I'd love a day off from work, or at least a bit of media hype here or there.

But for now, my goal is to see this have an official USA landfall, such would buck the "10% odds" it was given at one point.

 

My bad. I hope it was worth it to you all? lol

eta: 11 pages might be a record for me

[losetoa6]

Even DC getting some precip love on the Mrefs.

[losetoa6]

All 22 gefs members at 102

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F102.html

Link:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

[BTRWx]

Lee may have a better chance to fujiwhara around Maria than Jose.

Not a bad look!

[yoda]

Maria sits around OBX from 90-102

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maria sits around OBX from 90-102

That scenario will be ugly for them...we will be lucky to have clouds and breezes

[WxWatcher007]

You're right there isn't much here, but those are TS conditions verbatim for SE VA and maybe the extreme southern end of MD. 

[smokeybandit]

6z GFS a significant shift east

[losetoa6]

0z Op Euro made its closest approach yet to NC and looks to get possible hurricane force gusts to the obx . The Eps also made a sizeable jump west...no surprise . 

[losetoa6]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

6z GFS a significant shift east

Along with its ensembles 

[Rsheely88]

21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

0z Op Euro made its closest approach yet to NC and looks to get possible hurricane force gusts to the obx . The Eps also made a sizeable jump west...no surprise . 

Left is 0z right 12z

[smokeybandit]

GFS a hair further east again at 12z

[WxWatcher007]

With all the op guidance in now for 12z, I think we see at least TS watches for the Outer Banks of NC with the next advisory package. SE VA looks good for some TS gusts verbatim, but not sure they get covered. 

[SteveVa]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With all the op guidance in now for 12z, I think we see at least TS watches for the Outer Banks of NC with the next advisory package. SE VA looks good for some TS gusts verbatim, but not sure they get covered. 

Agree. I presume the watch cut off will be NC/VA border.

Still, wouldn't be surprised if they extended the watch up to VA eastern shore though, NHC isn't that conservative with regard to issuing TS watches.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, SteveVa said:

Agree. I presume the watch cut off will be NC/VA border.

Still, wouldn't be surprised if they extended the watch up to VA eastern shore though, NHC isn't that conservative with regard to issuing TS watches.

Could be better, but I think you're in a good spot for some action. Good luck  

[SteveVa]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Could be better, but I think you're in a good spot for some action. Good luck  

Thanks! I wish it wasn't a weekday, otherwise I would drive down to at least Nags Head. Probably wouldn't dare (pun intended) to go farther south due to road being about 1 foot above sea level lol

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Thanks! I wish it wasn't a weekday, otherwise I would drive down to at least Nags Head. Probably wouldn't dare (pun intended) to go farther south due to road being about 1 foot above sea level lol

Same. I may have some time to do it, but my Wednesday looks awful lol. 

I've never been to the Outer Banks. I was considering Hatteras a few days ago but traveling there for a storm like this probably isn't a show up one day and easily leave the next type deal.

Currently thinking Nags Head or Kill Devil Hills but now I'm worried that I'll get there and they'll close Wright Memorial Bridge before I can get back across it lol. 

 

[SteveVa]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Same. I may have some time to do it, but my Wednesday looks awful lol. 

I've never been to the Outer Banks. I was considering Hatteras a few days ago but traveling there for a storm like this probably isn't a show up one day and easily leave the next type deal.

Currently thinking Nags Head or Kill Devil Hills but now I'm worried that I'll get there and they'll close Wright Memorial Bridge before I can get back across it lol. 

 

Outer Banks are great! You should visit them even without a potential hurricane landfall lol

I don't think bridge closing should be a problem if we take Hampton Roads bridges as an example. They don't close the CBBT or HRBT for all traffic unless there are 65+ MPH winds.

[WxWatcher007]

Guess they're holding off on SE VA. Still think they get some action though. 

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

[ThePhotoGuy]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Same. I may have some time to do it, but my Wednesday looks awful lol. 

I've never been to the Outer Banks. I was considering Hatteras a few days ago but traveling there for a storm like this probably isn't a show up one day and easily leave the next type deal.

Currently thinking Nags Head or Kill Devil Hills but now I'm worried that I'll get there and they'll close Wright Memorial Bridge before I can get back across it lol. 

 

Love the OBX. Nags Head/Kitty Hawk/KDH are great areas.

Just an FYI, anything south of the Bonner Bridge (Hatteras Island) is prone to Overwash from the ocean. They close Highway 12 at times during/after the overwash to clear the water and and use heavy machinery to push back the sand dunes. Might get stuck down on Hatteras for a bit  

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Love the OBX. Nags Head/Kitty Hawk/KDH are great areas.

Just an FYI, anything south of the Bonner Bridge (Hatteras Island) is prone to Overwash from the ocean. They close Highway 12 at times during/after the overwash to clear the water and and use heavy machinery to push back the sand dunes. Might get stuck down on Hatteras for a bit  

Thanks. Will need to look at my schedule and the models in the morning to see if I have a window to get down there. 

If I do, it'll almost certainly be in KDH area. Ideally, I'd like to stay until things settle on Thursday but I might need to leave Wednesday morning.

[WxWatcher007]

LOL and then the GFS says "not so fast my friend".  

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

[ThePhotoGuy]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Will need to look at my schedule and the models in the morning to see if I have a window to get down there. 

If I do, it'll almost certainly be in KDH area. Ideally, I'd like to stay until things settle on Thursday but I might need to leave Wednesday morning.

KDH/Kitty Hawk/Nags Head are all great areas. I am pretty familiar with those areas if you have any questions. 

[WxWatcher007]

I'll regret it since I love tropical, but not sure it's worth spending money going down there for what could be minimal TS conditions. Good for NC though, we don't really need another big US strike.