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BTRWx

Major Hurricane Maria--imby and beyond pregame

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To do a somewhat serious analysis...

If you notice the time stamp, the Ukie's SLP position actually looks really close to the Canadian:yikes: run tonight at 96. The GFS is much slower--well SE of the NC coast at the same time. I think the speed allows for Maria to get further north, but unlike the Canadian, where the kicker takes forever, the Ukie has it come in pretty quickly, which gets Maria to take that sharp turn east before getting as far north as the Canadian:yikes:.

We'll see what the GEFS, Euro, and EPS do. Like I said a few days ago, this doesn't look like an "inland" landfall type pattern, but a landfall along the far east NC coast can't really be ruled out. Up here, it looked like we were out of the game (at the shore) but maybe Maria is trying to walk through the door. 

Have to be careful about going all in because models can easily overcorrect in both directions. Really interesting seeing the trend being a closer approach though. That's hard to ignore as we get closer in time. 

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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Data from this morning's Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight suggests
that Maria's maximum winds may be decreasing a bit--a trend which
was noted in the previous advisory package.  The plane measured a
maximum 700-mb flight level wind of 102 kt and SFMR winds as high
as 85 kt, neither of which supports an intensity of 105 kt.  The
initial intensity is therefore conservatively lowered to 100 kt.

Maria is now located between a mid-level high centered near Bermuda
and a cut-off low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, both of
which are steering the hurricane north-northwestward, or 340/7 kt.
Maria should turn northward between these two features beginning in
about 12 hours, but its forward motion is likely to be impeded in a
couple of days by ridging developing over the northeastern United
States.  As a result, the hurricane's forward speed will decrease
to 5 kt or less from day 2 and beyond.  The track guidance has
continued to trend toward slower and farther westward solutions,
and as we had foreshadowed in previous discussions, an additional
westward adjustment to the new NHC track forecast was required on
this cycle.  The updated forecast is between the GFS and ECMWF
solutions and close to the consensus aids and HCCA through day 3.
After that time, the new forecast is slower and southwest of the
consensus aids, but still not quite as far west as the GFS, ECMWF,
and UKMET solutions.

Based on various analyses, the southwesterly shear over Maria has
decreased since yesterday, and it appears to remain relatively low
for the next 2 days or so.  Maria will be moving over very warm
waters during that time, although the depth of the warm pool does
decrease, and Maria's slower motion could increase the effects of
colder upwelled water.  After 48 hours, vertical shear is forecast
to increase again, and a critical part of the intensity forecast
will be whether or not Maria moves over the cold wake left behind by
Jose.  The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more
likely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer
Gulf Stream waters.  Since the environment may not be as hostile as
the dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a
little above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast
period.

To increase the sampling of the environment upstream and north of
Maria, supplemental 0600/1800 UTC upper-air soundings are scheduled
to begin from the eastern and southeastern United States this
afternoon.  In addition, NOAA G-IV missions are scheduled to begin
sampling the environment around Maria on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,
and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week.  Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday.  These swells will likely
cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of
next week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 25.4N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 26.7N  72.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 28.3N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 32.1N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 33.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 34.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@WxWatcher007..so it looks like some fresh additional data will be ingested for the 0z suite possibly. 

Check  that..Looks like missions start Sunday 

Looks like additional data tonight with the supplemental soundings, and G-IV stuff by tomorrow night. I think tonight will be important in narrowing down the envelope of solutions, but the trend is clear. 

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19 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Can someone post the 0z EPS members? I feel like this one is slipping away due to the extreme blocking over Scandinavia.

Chaos! ;)

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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Maria's eye became cloud filled again today, although convective
cloud tops have been cooling within the eyewall during the past
couple of hours.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane conducting a
research mission has not yet sampled the entire circulation, but
they did report that the central pressure had fallen by a couple of
millibars.  In addition, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched
by the plane has been measuring winds of 120-125 kt at altitudes
of 1200-1300 ft, which supports maximum surface winds of 100 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt, but
Maria is expected to turn northward by this evening or overnight
while moving between a mid-level high near Bermuda and a cut-off low
over the northeastern Gulf coast.  A blocking ridge sliding eastward
over the northeastern U.S. should cause Maria to slow down to a
forward motion of 5 kt or less beginning in about 36 hours, lasting
through the end of the forecast period.  The track models appear to
have stabilized for the moment, with this being the first cycle in
about a day where they have not shown a significant westward shift.
Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged
from the previous forecast during the first 3 days.  The day 4 point
was shifted a little closer to the North Carolina coast to be closer
to the consensus aids and the Florida State Superensemble, and all
the models indicate that a northeastward motion away from the coast
should begin by day 5.

Vertical shear will remain relatively low over Maria for the next
several days, and the hurricane will be moving over warm waters at
least for the next 3 days.  However, the depth of the thermocline
does become more shallow, with oceanic heat content values steadily
decreasing over the next 36 hours.  With Maria expected to slow
down, upwelling of colder water becomes a greater factor, and that
could modulate the hurricane's intensity during the next several
days.  Maria also could still move over Jose's cold wake in 4-5
days, which would likely cause additional weakening.  The NHC
intensity forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,
however it should be noted that the normally skillful HCCA model is
toward the lower end of the guidance suite.  It therefore wouldn't
be surprising if Maria weakened more than shown in the official
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,
and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week.  Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday.  These swells will likely
cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of
next week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 26.3N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 27.6N  72.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 29.1N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 30.1N  73.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 31.1N  73.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 32.9N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 34.5N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 35.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS shifted west of 12z.  Showing a direct OBX hit  before the trough begins to push Maria out. 

My parents are heading to OBX tomorrow.  I'm kind of jealous

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Too bad there's no trough, vort, or boundary to the north or west of Maria to interact and expand the wind and/or precip shield. Even a pressure gradient would give us some breezes but there isn't even that. The storm is unusually compact for mid latitudes. 

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Just saw the gfs and there's definitely more interaction with the eastern gulf ull...It seems really to help hook Maria left ..if that feature keeps increasing its influence It wouldn't surprise me for Maria to landfall in NC even further inland then just the obx .

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