NJwx85 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 The trend on the last four runs of the GEFS show a major shift towards a late re-curve around August 15th and is supported by the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The trend on the last four runs of the GEFS show a major shift towards a late re-curve around August 15th and is supported by the OP. Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records! Is this a serious post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 GFS LOL! (Although we are due, I think it's been 13+ years without a major to the US?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records!Wake me when the Euro and the Ukie are spitting out the same solution.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 14 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow. For your sake I hope not. Of course OBX had a stellar week last week weather wise while the two islands were evacuated, looks like chances of showers while I'm there next week. No complaints from me though, I'll be there and I've been in the pool during showers before. I've also been able to see some great cloud structures down there and a number of water spouts, one which was within a mile of the house that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 The GEFS is tightly clustered with future Franklin and then splits into two distinct camps. It appears that the slower the evolution the further West it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 EURO goes into northeast Mexico by day 10, with AN pressures along East Coast at a time when GFS has deep hurricane going there. Standby for a PageOneReplate from one of these newspapers. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 the upgraded gfs is worse than the older version with atlantic hurricanes. use with caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Extreme 2000's heavy rain pattern continues. 5"+ flash floods in Atlantic City, Miami Beach, and New Orleans in just one week. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/07/rain_high_winds_flood_warnings_for_half_of_nj.html https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/heavy-rain-triggers-flash-flooding-power-outages-in-miami/84749/ http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_in_mid-city_french_qu.html Desert SW flooding with the very strong monsoon. http://abc13.com/weather/video-freak-flooding-on-las-vegas-strip-engulfs-taxi/2279117/ Extremely humid tropical airmass over #SoCal today. Precipitable water at#SanDiego a record for date; in top 10 ever recorded https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/892770380737167361/photo/1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 This is my personal favorite winter weather image of the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 the euro screwed up that storm too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro screwed up that storm too. lol Haha. Both of them. And totally lost Boxing Day for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Summer is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Haha. Both of them. i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed It lost Boxing Day and it wasn't very helpful (besides a few runs) with the 1/26-27/11 storm. Also Jan 2015 (Juno) was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016. They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016. They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it. oceanstwx made a good point earlier today 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 ^ Yup. Thanks. I remember with Boxing Day, it wasn't convection that screwed with the models. It was s/w flying due south out of no man's land (northern Canada) that every model missed ~days 2 through 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed The good news is that 60-120 mile short term errors in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 day 500 mb means much where the EPS really excels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The good news is that 60-120 mile shifts in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 days means much where the EPS really excels. The EPS is great recognizing hemispheric patterns before other ensembles. My only issue with it is that the mean seems to follow the OP around like a lost puppy with specific storm threats in the medium range since its upgrades over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Man. What a storm 1/26-27/11 was around the area. KNYC reported >.30 liquid for a few hours straight. BDR was .43 one hour. Islip reported 5" of snow one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Man. What a storm 1/26-28/11 was around the area. KNYC reported >.30 liquid for a few hours straight. BDR was .43 one hour. Islip reported 5" of snow one hour. Islip did that for 'Nemo' as well I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Man. What a storm 1/26-28/11 was around the area. KNYC reported >.30 liquid for a few hours straight. BDR was .43 one hour. Islip reported 5" of snow one hour. we got rates close to that in feb 2014. it's so easy to get heavy snow now. lol. a little more blocking and last march would have been a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we got rates close to that in feb 2014. it's so easy to get heavy snow now. lol. a little more blocking and last march would have been a monster I remember Doug and I were talking that morning and we both said it was probably the heaviest snow we've seen. The rates might have been eclipsed the Jan 26-27, 2011 storm here. It was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, Rjay said: The EPS is great recognizing hemispheric patterns before other ensembles. My only issue with it is that the mean seems to follow the OP around like a lost puppy with specific storm threats in the medium range since its upgrades over the last few years. Yeah, the EPS and OP are fairly tightly clustered with storm tracks 0-120 hrs. We may be bumping up against the maximum amount of accuracy we can get on storm tracks. Seems like it will be very difficult to eliminate the 60-120 mile track errors that are common with some storms like today and January 2015. I guess the good news is that a 60-120 mile shift will change the amounts but the theme should be similar. More or less rain or snow... but it does actually rain or snow. When I was growing up in the 70's and 80's, 125 -250+mile track errors were common. So many times it didn't even rain or snow at all compared to short to medium term forecasts. Complete busts like January 2000 were more common as opposed to partial busts of recent times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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