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MattPetrulli

April 5-6 Severe Threat

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18 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Severe cells moving onshore now near Mobile and Panama City.

Yep gonna be a long day and even longer night tomorrow ( or I guess today now ), I am on nightshift so I will be at work all Wed night so that means I will be awake but my wife is super pissed I wont be home she has storm issues. The timing for us here in eastern NC is really rough and if we do get some big tornadic storms it will be later at night.....reminds me of 1984 since those also hit at night luckily for us though this setup isn't going to be nearly that severe up this way still wouldn't be surprised to see them modify the enhanced area on the current day 3 to include a larger area and maybe even bump it to mod risk some of the sounding are pretty bad for us Wed night.

 

That one cell NE of Pensacola looks kinda hooky....

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A lot of hype coming from local news stations here in the Upstate. Looking like we'll probably be spared from the worst of it. Good thing too since I work nights and will be asleep most of tomorrow afternoon.

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6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Really been thinking that the new D1 will have to extend the MDT into TN/KY and even farther west into AL. 

00z NAM/3km NAM/HRW-NMM/RPM all have a string of pearls 

Agreed. They might have a massive moderate risk area with an upgrade to high possible at the morning update for areas of Al/GA.

 

The first of what will likely be many MD's:

 

mcd0436.gif

 

   DISCUSSION...A west-east corridor of stronger thunderstorms has
   developed early in the overnight across far southern portions of
   MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This is likely related to increasing
   warm advection/isentropic ascent focused near and immediately north
   of a northward-shifting maritime-related warm front along the Gulf
   Coast. As near-70F surface dewpoints become increasingly common in
   coastal areas, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (as per the
   00Z observed sounding from Slidell LA) and ample shear through the
   cloud-bearing layer may support a few supercells capable of severe
   hail. While these storms should initially be at least slightly
   elevated overnight, gradually increasing low-level moisture and the
   arrival of somewhat stronger upstream forcing may contribute to an
   increasing/northward-expanding near-surface-based severe risk
   through the pre-dawn hours.

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Really been thinking that the new D1 will have to extend the MDT into TN/KY and even farther west into AL. 

 

00z NAM/3km NAM/HRW-NMM/RPM all have a string of pearls 

 

If that's the case, they just may go high with that big of a moderate area.

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

If that's the case, they just may go high with that big of a moderate area.

Don't see high for tonight's issuance I'd say. Will go at 13z pending on morning models and convection

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

HRRR

 

 

My goodness. Seems like those supercells just keep stretching farther and farther north on every new model run. 

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7 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

My goodness. Seems like those supercells just keep stretching farther and farther north on every new model run. 

Some of those stretching into northern IN might be north of the wf and elevated

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5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Looks like SPC thinks the threat has lessened for parts of North GA. My area went from Moderate to Enhanced. 

Don't bank on it just yet. Definitely some uncertainty with the warm front but still a solid threat. 4z HRRR worked in a plenty volatile atmosphere by mid-afternoon.

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Don't bank on it just yet. Definitely some uncertainty with the warm front but still a solid threat. 4z HRRR worked in a plenty volatile atmosphere by mid-afternoon.

I'm definitely banking on it. I've only been here since August but one thing I"ve noticed is this area is a joke when it comes to severe weather. It even looks like far NE GA went from Moderate to a Slight Risk. Huge decrease.

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Don't see any high risks on the maps? I went from moderate risk , to barely slight risk! The wedge is fo real!

Yep, I think we're out on this one Mack. These widespread severe weather threats don't usually pan out for this area anyway, at least in my experience. I get more severe weather out of pop up afternoon storms.

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46 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Yep, I think we're out on this one Mack. These widespread severe weather threats don't usually pan out for this area anyway, at least in my experience. I get more severe weather out of pop up afternoon storms.

I wouldn't let your guard down fully. Check out, for example, the difference between the 00z and 06z 3km NAM runs:

 

 

00z:

58e4cb6e523e5_00zNAMUH.thumb.png.7fbb7191fe82f69f08a46c29bb3908ad.png

 

06z:

58e4cb784f839_06zNAMUH.thumb.png.3aec83e6df13510cb78b81fa1d242f70.png

 

That's a huge difference! From what I can tell, the main factor that changed is that the warm front/warm, moist air makes it further north a bit faster. The progression of this front will be the main thing we'll have to watch over the course of the day today, it seems.

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