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dryslot

NNE Spring Thread

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There’s quite a colorful mix of weather advisories out there on the BTV NWS map now, and we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm here in Northern Vermont.  The BTV NWS projected accumulations map is actually the same as it was yesterday, so they’re obviously pretty happy with that one for now.  I’ve added it below for reference and archiving anyway.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

437 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...The system referenced above will take the form of surface low pressure and upper closed energy tracking east from the Ohio Valley states tonight into Friday and into the Mid Atlantic and offshore environs by Friday night/Saturday with widespread precipitation expected. Thermal profiles continue to suggest p-type (rain/snow) will be governed heavily by boundary layer temperatures, quite typical during early spring events. Some brief mix with sleet may be possible across southern counties per mid level warm nose shown in most recent NAM output. Given this model has a more northward surface low track and is really the only output showing this have omitted any reference to sleet at this point. In terms of timing and amounts, the latest information suggests snow will arrive into southwestern counties toward Friday morning and advance northeast through the remainder of the forecast area during the day on Friday into Friday night. A possible mix with or changeover to a cold rain will be possible in lower elevations below 1000 feet during the daylight hours. Complicating the scenario will be how ground temperatures govern daytime accumulations in these lower, valley sites. Climo would suggest only a modest impact to roads in most areas through the day on Friday with greater impacts expected Friday evening/night in response to loss of insolation and slightly cooler temperatures. Put considerable work into snow ratio output, leaning on the lower side of guidance in the 8-10:1 range in lower elevations and staggering progressively upward into the 10-13:1 range in the higher terrain. QPF from Friday into Saturday morning is a blended output of NAM/GFS/Consensus model/WPC blend with a slight downward adjustment given the rather high output as suggested by the NAM. This would support amounts ranging from one third to two thirds of an inch north and two thirds to an inch south. Snowfall output suggests 30 hour totals from 2-4 inches in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valley with only minor impacts, 3 to 7 inches in much of the northern higher terrain and lower elevations of southern VT, and 6 to 12 inches across higher elevations of Essex County, NY and the southern Green Mountains of Rutland/Windsor Counties of VT. In these latter areas, Winter Storm Warnings and/or Winter Weather Advisories have been issued accordingly where difficult to locally hazardous travel is expected. Given the wet nature of the snow, some modest threat to trees/powerlines will also be possible with the highest threat occurring across southern higher terrain. Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities. Highs on Friday ranging through the 30s with lows Friday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

 

By Saturday the low pressure pulls away offshore with steadier snows tapering to scattered rain/snow shower activity as the day progresses. Any additional accumulations should generally be confined to higher elevations during the morning hours as high temperatures top out from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Some upslope snow showers will continue into Saturday night across our Northern Vermont zones before ending early Sunday morning.

 

30MAR17A.jpg

 

29MAR17B.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

345 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

VTZ011-018-302100-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0004.170331T0900Z-170401T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0010.170331T0900Z-170401T1800Z/

Western Rutland-Eastern Addison-

Including the cities of Rutland, Bristol, and Ripton

345 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT

SATURDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter

Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 5 AM Friday to

2 PM EDT Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

 

* Locations...Southern Vermont including western Rutland and

  eastern Addison Counties.

 

* Hazard Types...Moderate wet snowfall.

 

* Accumulations...4 to 8 inches.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...Up to 1 inch per hour, mainly Friday

  evening through midnight.

 

* Timing...Snow will begin Friday morning before possibly mixing

  with rain or snow below 1000 feet Friday afternoon. Snow will

  continue at higher elevations Friday into Friday night before

  tapering off Saturday morning.

 

* Impacts...Wet snow may accumulate on trees and power lines which

  could lead to isolated power outages across the advisory area.

  Additionally, difficult travel conditions are expected on local

  roads.

 

* Winds...Southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

 

* Temperatures...Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the

  mid 30s.

 

* Visibilities...As low as a half mile at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow

will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or

go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

&&

 

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

345 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

NYZ029>031-035-VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016-017-302100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0010.170331T0900Z-170401T1800Z/

Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-

Eastern Essex-Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Orange-

Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-

Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake,

Dannemora, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Newport, Island Pond,

Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Bradford, Randolph,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, and Underhill

345 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT

SATURDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter

Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 5 AM Friday to

2 PM EDT Saturday.

 

* Locations...the western Adirondacks and Eastern Essex County in

  northern New York and all of central and northeastern Vermont

  including the western slopes.

 

* Hazard Types...Moderate wet snowfall.

 

* Accumulations...3 to 7 inches.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...Up to 1 inch per hour, mainly Friday

  evening through midnight.

 

* Timing...Snow will begin late Friday morning before possibly

  mixing with rain below 1000 feet Friday afternoon. Snow will

  continue at higher elevations Friday into Friday night before

  tapering off Saturday morning.

 

* Impacts...Wet snow may accumulate on trees and power lines which

  may lead to isolated power outages across the advisory area.

  Additionally, difficult travel conditions are expected on local

  roads.

 

* Winds...East to southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

 

* Temperatures...Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the

  lower to mid 30s.

 

* Visibilities...As low as a half mile at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow

will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or

go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

&&

 

$$

 

JMG

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Gotta love the Chance of Accumulation section, my eyes always go straight to the >18" column.

 

Location At least    Likely    Potential for    >=0.1"     >=1"     >=2"     >=4"     >=6"     >=8"     >=12"      >=18"
                       
Norwich, VT 3 7 17 96% 94% 91% 82% 71% 58% 34% 11%

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As of now this looks to be a non event in the CPV but I will be getting into the mountains I hope for some paste bomb photos. I love photogenic events where the trees are pasted.

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Sunny is so strong today.  Really can feel the change in seasons.  Even if we get a big paste bomb temperatures will stay above freezing almost 24/7 except for several hours late each night so the pack will start diminishing quickly.

Eyewall.   Wished this season we had had a nice ice storm with a beautiful blue day afterwards.  What awesome drone pictures we could have got.  Nice ice coverage a couple of days ago around here but it was above 1000 feet and the whole time the ridges were socked in.  By the time everything cleared yesterday the ice was about gone.  Since this next storm will not have much wind perhaps a good flight early Sunday.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Sunny is so strong today.  Really can feel the change in seasons.  Even if we get a big paste bomb temperatures will stay above freezing almost 24/7 except for several hours late each night so the pack will start diminishing quickly.

Eyewall.   Wished this season we had had a nice ice storm with a beautiful blue day afterwards.  What awesome drone pictures we could have got.  Nice ice coverage a couple of days ago around here but it was above 1000 feet and the whole time the ridges were socked in.  By the time everything cleared yesterday the ice was about gone.  Since this next storm will not have much wind perhaps a good flight early Sunday.

Yeah I am hoping to get in a flight or two with this storm. Perhaps even Sat afternoon.

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Just love the GOES 16.  Today's view from above.  OceanST,  once it goes operational will it also take really zoomed in images?   So much detail of all of New England.  It would be great if it could zoom into say a 50 mile area.  With this picture you can almost make out the Mass Pike and metro Boston.  It would be nice if it was in color.  Could see green up area and even peak foliage!

Untitled.jpg

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The race to triple digits for BTV. 

I need about 5" myself for 100.



6.5" is the mark for 100.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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The BTV NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Warning areas a bit more since this morning’s update, and some of the 8-12” light orange shading has moved northward on the projected accumulations map.  Updated maps and text are below:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

425 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 348 PM EDT Thursday...A low pressure system will bring

heavy wet snow to the North Country on Friday. The major

changes between the latest forecast and the previous is that the

precip will be slower to move in and thus the warm air

advection should bring in considerable warmer temperatures to

the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. The net result is that

there will be more mix of rain/snow in those valleys with the

potential for some sleet mixing in across western Rutland and

the western slopes of the southern Greens.

 

Expect the precip to come in two waves with the first being

light snow that lifts from southern Vermont towards central

Vermont before breaking down as the dynamics fall apart. The

system becomes reinvigorated and brings heavier precip in

during the afternoon and evening hours and thats when the

significant heavy wet snow will be expected. The range of

guidance is still fairly widespread given the difficulty of how

far the warm nose will push up into Vermont and northern New

York.

 

I dont anticipate much in the way of true impacts due to weather

until we get into the Friday night time period as thats when the

low begins to deepen and we get into the rich moist environment.

The bulk of the snow should fall in that 8pm to 8am time period

so given the wet nature of the snow, we expect there will be

issues with snow loading on trees and power lines which will

cause isolated to scattered power outages. Please see our

winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific

accumulation forecasts and probabilities. With the warm air

advection bringing warmer temps into the valleys faster

anticipate highs on Friday ranging through the 30s to the low

40s being possible. Lows overnight will fall into the upper 20s

to lower 30s.

 

Saturday as the upper level low deepens off the coastline and

the surface low does as well the energy will be pulled out of

the North Country and we should see the snow begin to taper off.

The way the surface low deepens however means that we will get

should see some northwest flow with moderate RH which will lead

to some lingering mountain snow showers during the day on

Saturday.

 

 30MAR17B.jpg

 

30MAR17C.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 301939

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

VTZ007-008-010-311000-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WW.Y.0010.170331T0900Z-170401T1800Z/

/O.EXA.KBTV.WS.W.0004.170331T0900Z-170401T1800Z/

Caledonia-Washington-Orange-

Including the cities of St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Bradford,

and Randolph

339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT

SATURDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter

Storm Warning for heavy wet snow, which is in effect from 5 AM

Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no

longer in effect.

 

* Locations...East central Vermont including Caledonia,

  Washington, and Orange Counties.

 

* Hazard Types...Heavy wet snow.

 

* Accumulations...5 to 10 inches of heavy dense snow.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...Up to 1 inch per hour, mainly Friday

  evening through Saturday morning.

 

* Timing...Snow will begin late Friday morning before possibly

  mixing with rain below 1000 feet Friday afternoon. Snow will

  continue at higher elevations into Friday night before tapering

  off Saturday morning. The heaviest snowfall will occur from

  Friday evening through early Saturday morning.

 

* Impacts...Heavy wet snow will accumulate on trees and power

  lines which will lead to scattered power outages across the

  warned area. Additionally, difficult travel conditions are

  expected on local roads.

 

* Winds...Southeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

* Temperatures... Highs in the mid 30s on Friday afternoon. Lows

  in the mid 20s on Friday night.

 

* Visibilities...As low as a half mile at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy wet snow means severe winter

weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts

of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. If you must

travel, Keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle

in case of an emergency.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or

go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

&&

 

$$

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I'm really hoping the 1-2 inches forecast for the southern end of the Champlain Valley holds true.  No need for blue snow bombs here.  Those are words I rarely utter.

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The system approaching the Northeast has reached the threshold of acquiring a name, Winter Storm Theseus, and Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have now filled up most of the BTV NWS forecast area.  Our area (Washington County) is under a Winter Storm Warning for a general 4 to 8 inches of accumulation.  The latest BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps are below.

 

31MAR17A.jpg

 

31MAR17B.jpg

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The system approaching the Northeast has reached the threshold of acquiring a name, Winter Storm Theseus, and Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have now filled up most of the BTV NWS forecast area.  Our area (Washington County) is under a Winter Storm Warning for a general 4 to 8 inches of accumulation.  The latest BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps are below.

 

31MAR17A.jpg

 

31MAR17B.jpg

never seen such a big difference in storm total snow from NWS BTV to NWS ALB, ALB has warren county in 2-4 inches of snow while BTV has 8-12

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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13 hours ago, wx2fish said:

CAR set their record for consecutive 12"+ days today

25356.jpeg.56d946a52c96c22ad07486a938ac7504.jpeg

I was surprised that 2007-08, their snowiest on record, did not have a longer run.  However, two mild days in early January '08 dropped the depth to 10".  They'll need to hold 10"+ thru 4/13 to match 07-08 for longest double-digit run.  I give it a 50-50 chance - they're at 28" this morning, don't expect much tomorrow but Tuesday might help.  In 2008 the pack was 34" on 4/1 and dropped below 10" on the 17th.

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice views into New Hampshire from Mansfield this morning. 

Its snowing now.

View-into-New-Hampshire-from-the-top-of-

Nice!  Much more interesting than Mt. Blandsfield. :P 

I wonder by how much, or if, long distance visibility has changed over the last 100 years or so.

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18 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Nice!  Much more interesting than Mt. Blandsfield. :P 

I wonder by how much, or if, long distance visibility has changed over the last 100 years or so.

Ha, I have no idea but it was very clear this morning.  Its not often I can make out the individual slide paths out from over here.  There was some serious long distance vis this morning under the high/mid-level cloud deck.

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Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.12” L.E.

 

Snow started up at the house this morning, but observations from our web cam indicated that it didn’t really start accumulating until roughly 2:30 P.M.  Since then accumulation has been pretty slow with the snowfall rates and marginal temperatures we’ve had, but it’s certainly been picking up a bit as we head toward the evening hours.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3

Snow Density: 30.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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Somewhere around 2 inches here now. Paste job in progress with everything covered. Should be photogenic in the morning if it holds. The roads are awful.

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Event totals: 4.6” Snow/0.60” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 4.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.48 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.8

Snow Density: 11.4% H2O

Temperature: 32.5 F

Sky: Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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definitely a beautiful pasting out there. 4.5" as of 5:15am here. I saw a power flash and heard the buzz due to a downed line from a branch somewhere not far away

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