WaPo Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 45 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Anyone remember tracking this storm? This is still the 'one that got away' for me. Sub 960mb at our latitude. Did a little bit of a stall. Dropped like 45mb in 24 hours. Put that through the benchmark and forget about it. This was a late March event too. So nothing is fully over yet. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-east-coast-new-england-blizzard-possible-20140324 This was an incredible looking storm. It was a beautiful sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Apparently my questions can't get addressed in the banter thread either, instead there just being deleted... Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Wut I posted a snowmap... in the model discussion thread that I created.. specifically for model banter... it says "model banter" in the headlining... a snowmap is model banter IMO, it was deleted and a post from forky said "no snow maps"... I posted here in the banter thread requesting an explanation as to why my model banter thread was all of a sudden not allowing snowmaps.. and if this was going to be enforced for everyone.. that post was subsiquetly also deleted..... I'm confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 post snow maps in the banter thread and nowhere else. the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: post snow maps in the banter thread and nowhere else. the end. Ok well I deleted the model banter thread, cause apparently it's lost its purpose, thanks for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 this is the 00z euro run from the night of the blizzard: we know for a fact the euro was forecasting sleet based on this cross section: yet the wxbell snow map showed almost 20" anyway. so the map counts sleet as snow and is therefore USELESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this is the 00z euro run from the night of the blizzard: we know for a fact the euro was forecasting sleet based on this cross section: yet the wxbell snow map showed almost 20" anyway. so the map counts sleet as snow and is therefore USELESS Supposedly they're redoing how the maps show snow/sleet etc but I never look at those except to LOL. The soundings and mid level low tracks are much more important. To me those showed mixing once those started trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Every winter there is an inverted trough or norlun event that the people go bat nuts over. These always fail huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Supposedly they're redoing how the maps show snow/sleet etc but I never look at those except to LOL. The soundings and mid level low tracks are much more important. To me those showed mixing once those started trending west. 00z euro verified to the exact inch up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, Animal said: Every winter there is an inverted trough or norlun event that the people go bat nuts over. These always fail huge. Sometimes we can do very well like 12/13/88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z euro verified to the exact inch up here And the mid level low tracks were fine for your area, so they were good in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z euro verified to the exact inch up here Thats because you had no mixing. If NYC was all snow the qpf matched the euro well and would have been 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Thats because you had no mixing. If NYC was all snow the qpf matched the euro well and would have been 20" Yea I kno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sometimes we can do very well like 12/13/88. I took that day off and went skiing at Hunter. Just a dry cold day up there. On the way home we started to hit a little snow on the ground around the Nassau-Queens border and caught up to where snow was still falling (and plenty on the ground) by the Nassau-Suffolk line. Quite the surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Thats because you had no mixing. If NYC was all snow the qpf matched the euro well and would have been 20" To be fair, the precip type also matched the 0Z Euro well. The Euro forecast was good. The rendering onto snow maps lost something in the translation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I took that day off and went skiing at Hunter. Just a dry cold day up there. On the way home we started to hit a little snow on the ground around the Nassau-Queens border and caught up to where snow was still falling (and plenty on the ground) by the Nassau-Suffolk line. Quite the surprise. That one was really tough for the snow fans further west to miss. NYC went on to finish with only 8.1" that winter for the lowest seasonal snowfall total of the 1980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: To be fair, the precip type also matched the 0Z Euro well. The Euro forecast was good. The rendering onto snow maps lost something in the translation. The 12z Euro on the 13th was about 3 hrs too slow with the changeover to sleet since it had the low too far east. But you could see that a changeover to sleet would occur on the Euro soundings. Losing 3 hours of heavy snow to sleet made all the difference in the final accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z Euro on the 13th was about 3 hrs too slow with the changeover to sleet since it had the low too far east. But you could see that a changeover to sleet would occur on the Euro soundings. Losing 3 hours of heavy snow to sleet made all the difference in the final accumulations. Thanks. I have trouble lining up the time scale on the cross sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: To be fair, the precip type also matched the 0Z Euro well. The Euro forecast was good. The rendering onto snow maps lost something in the translation. ryan maue purposely coded the maps to show sleet as snow so he'd get more money from dumb snow weenies. full stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: ryan maue purposely coded the maps to show sleet as snow so he'd get more money from dumb snow weenies. full stop. Tell us how you really feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 earl barker figured out how to differentiate sleet vs snow in 2006. why can't maue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: ryan maue purposely coded the maps to show sleet as snow so he'd get more money from dumb snow weenies. full stop. See the thread of this tweet, unless you are referring to it. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841830934886391808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: earl barker figured out how to differentiate sleet vs snow in 2006. why can't maue? The guy from The Price is Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: See the thread of this tweet, unless you are referring to it. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841830934886391808 he had years to fix that but only mentioned it after his maps busted badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The guy from The Price is Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The guy from The Price is Right? this guy http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 and his site includes the actual formula for the kuchera ratio. it's just a temperature equation. no consideration is paid to temps in the level where snow is being produced http://www.wxcaster.com/gfssnow.txt Contact: Evan Kuchera 0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP. The snowfall accumulation algorithm used on these charts is as follows: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP) 2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP) 3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP) The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ryan maue purposely coded the maps to show sleet as snow so he'd get more money from dumb snow weenies. full stop. Wx bell maps in general strongly favor form over function. For how showy and colorful they are, the upper air charts are so hard to read to the point of near uselessness. It's sort of a shame... Maue has a lot of useful products and graphics, but they desperately need to be simplified and de-weenied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Wow, you guys lost me at "hello" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I didn't realize Kuchera was so binary... everybody touts it as such an advanced algorithm. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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