Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Edit: I am unsure which wfo covers boone and the mountains. Boone is covered by the Blacksburg WFO. They'll probably throw 'em in a warning because it is Boone after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting to see the NAM and now the RGEM coming in further south with the ull. I would have thought it would have helped w-NC...hopefully the GFS/Euro improve. At 36 RGEM appears to have a quicker phase too. Looking at 4k NAM soundings it does help keep the warm nose in check quite a bit. It just gets to freezing/maybe 0.5C instead of the +2-3C it had been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs to me looks pretty similar at 15 in regard to the ull over Iowa at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 At this range back in our Jan bust the NAM's and the RGEM started hinting at the NW shift and thus eventual temp issues. I would expect the GFS to be SE of both models coming up. Will be interesting to see if heaviest snows are up the 95 corridor in NoVA or more west when this all unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Gfs to me looks pretty similar at 15 in regard to the ull over Iowa at that time. Compared to 0z run it's big shift SW with the ULL at 21 and 24. I keep thinking that would be good but I guess slower may mean further NW track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Compared to 0z run it's big shift SW with the ULL at 21 and 24. I keep thinking that would be good but I guess slower may mean further NW track. It does move fairly more sw of its position you are correct. What a change thus far this morning with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: It does move fairly more sw of its position you are correct. What a change thus far this morning with guidance. Good for you right? The NAM's and RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Good for you right? The NAM's and RGEM? Yea def. Will help big time in the upcoming frames. With the ull south of me always a good good sign. All guidance wants to do earlier phase this morning. Big change from fri nights and yesterdays catastrophe for my area and the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Damn gfs is gonna be west just looking at h5 without even comparing at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Damn gfs is gonna be west just looking at h5 without even comparing at 36. Such a big shift from 0z to 12z run. Will be very interesting to see the Euro. This should be a really good run for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Damn gfs is gonna be west just looking at h5 without even comparing at 36. It's a very nice hit. It brings a lot more QPF than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Disc said: It's a very nice hit. It brings a lot more QPF than previous runs. Hours 39 and 42 are awesome! Ill post in a min. 850s def borderline but heavier rates and as we head into evening with less insulation, along with bombing low will go from rain to mod to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs goes kaboom! The way that ull keeps trending more and more sw could have big implications as we keep going with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 KROA QPF -- 0.6" Still looks like some mixing issues to begin with, but that may trend to being all snow eventually NC mountains also get in on some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 And the two frames from 12z gfs and 6z gfs, ull is over eastern tn, eastern ky at the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 35 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea def. Will help big time in the upcoming frames. With the ull south of me always a good good sign. All guidance wants to do earlier phase this morning. Big change from fri nights and yesterdays catastrophe for my area and the mountains. At the rate its trending would Asheville benefit from this also, maybe a colder outlook, more snow than a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, fritschy said: At the rate its trending would Asheville benefit from this also, maybe a colder outlook, more snow than a mix? If that ull can keep progressing more southwest you guys could def be in for a nice event imo. Guys like pilot and pack can prolly give you better guidance on that area, as i am not accustomed to it, however the setup keeps trending better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Both CMC and UKIE are coastal hugger bombs as well. Great trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So is Raleigh back in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: So is Raleigh back in the game? Lol unfortunately no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 CMC is impressive this afternoon! Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Me thinks D.C. is going to be mostly sleet/rain with this one. I look forward to the meltdowns as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Me thinks D.C. is going to be mostly sleet/rain with this one. I look forward to the meltdowns as the event unfolds. I def think they front end thump decent. If these models keep trending ever so slightly west, which they have been since last night, then yes people could cliff jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 You loop the last couple of runs of the GFS 5h anomaly plots you can see the atlantic ridge getting a little stronger which forces the southern SW to slow down and even a little south. This is what killed Raleigh inside 48 in Jan...wonder if this trend keeps up. Would guess the 12z runs ingested something from the atlantic that caused such a big shift. Would expect a monster Euro run for west of 95 into VA/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The band on the west side of this storm as it begins to "bomb out" is going to be very impressive, at least going by the NAM. Negative omega values (lift) nearing -30 showing very impressive 700mb vertical velocities, this band is gonna be putting down some serious snow. Below is a cross section from the 12z for KROA and a 700mb VV map. Notice the very low omega values (red) overlayed on top of RH. This is the same time as the VV's are nearly maxed out along the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Bith GFS and Euro look fairly similar to my untrained eye through 24 wrt placement of ns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 990mb bomb off Norfolk at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We have temp problems. I like we have the stronger looking storm and QPF going up but temps don't look great. Text sounding from 6z NAM was almost all snow but the 12z looked like sleet issues for thee first half of the .85" GFS looks like all snow but very close. Then you have to remember warm noses seem to over perform. Disc's post on the dynamics for us on the NAM is what I think we are going to need. That or another little change to get temps to go back in the right direction a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, Wow said: 990mb bomb off Norfolk at 48 Great cold rain storm! unreal, our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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