mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I'm about 10-12 miles SW of Mt.Airy I need to get Nam'd tonight or it's over for me!! It's over, before it even starts! Down sloping , FTL! Enjoy your teens Wednesday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's over, before it even starts! Down sloping , FTL! Enjoy your teens Wednesday night! buzz killer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Careful with the sref man. Seriously, I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 NCEP must be slow again tonight. Been stuck at hr 12 for a pretty good amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: NCEP must be slow again tonight. Been stuck at hr 12 for a pretty good amount of time. Out to 22 on Tropicaltidbits. Still south and west of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Disc said: Out to 22 on Tropicaltidbits. Still south and west of the 18z run. I use instant weather. Out to 21 now. There will def be an earlier phase it looks like to me the way the n/s has dug and the southern stream is significantly more northwest of its 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You guys must be seeing something I'm not. I typically just look at the HP to the North and how it ridges down east of the mountains. So far, the pressure lines are a touch north of the 18z run. Hopefully this is just a timing issue and the net result will be a colder push. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 24 hour has now dug all the way down to New Orleans. It has caught the southern stream. Gonna blow up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ugh 850s are terrible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 hr 30 don't look to good for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: You guys must be seeing something I'm not. I typically just look at the HP to the North and how it ridges down east of the mountains. So far, the pressure lines are a touch north of the 18z run. Hopefully this is just a timing issue and the net result will be a colder push. TW Not a timing issue unfortunately. This strategy seems to work every time. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nothing for NC, see ya in November!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: hr 30 don't look to good for NC Wicked drysolt geez! Congrats towards Pittsburgh on this one. Lets hope the NAM is overamping as its usual bias here because this is pretty for no one, including DC/BWI etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: hr 30 don't look to good for NC Guess if it digs to Cuba , we might have a shot! Thank god spring is almost here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: hr 30 don't look to good for NC It'll make its own cold air! Dynamical cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Rain in DC, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Rain in DC, lol That would be a BIG lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 The only thing I saw out of the NAM was possible convective feedback issues and not knowing how to correctly deal with some of the extreme thunderstorm activity firing up through the gulf of mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol a 1005 lp over the Albermarle Sound. Weak sauce. Why is it so insanely hard to get a storm to bomb just off the east coast of FL? Why is that so impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: hr 30 don't look to good for NC Pretty significant ice storm right along the escarpment this run. Looks like around 1/3" of ice for the favored CAD areas. 4km NAM looking like more snow than ice through 26 on TT. Waiting to check soundings on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: Pretty significant ice storm right along the escarpment this run. Looks like around 1/3" of ice for the favored CAD areas. 4km NAM looking like more snow than ice through 26. I'd be surprised at that! Snow maybe that much Ice IDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol a 1005 lp over the Albermarle Sound. Weak sauce. Why is it so insanely hard to get a storm to bomb just off the east coast of FL? Why is that so impossible? It did in Jan 2000. I've often wondered myself this same question. Like it has to pass obx, usually that's because of miller b crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Oh snap, Blacksburg will have to change my forecast again, it's went from Mod. snow accm low of 28 yesterday. to Mix and low 30s tonight. and I'm sure tomorrow morning it will be rain and 35 for a low. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 FYI NAM 3K has been verifying well looks much better for the VA Blue Ridge. EDIT: It does look to mix significantly from hours 27-30. Whatever falls also looks extremely heavy in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: It did in Jan 2000. I've often wondered myself this same question. Like it has to pass obx, usually that's because of miller b crap. Yeah, exactly. We have no problems getting Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM 3K has a 993 bomb off the coast of ORF at hr33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I can tell it's mid March looking at all that green in east TN going up the western escarpment, state line. Those guys in MA trashing nam within 24 hrs espeacilly in DC Metro gonna have a hard crash when reality sets in in 30 hrs. I have to recondition myself back to 7 days ago before getting sucked back in to this week's events. Time for 8 months of the "Shetley Report" mowing, bugs, heat rash...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3km Para NAM continues the idea of a little snow/sleet/zr for WNC, interesting considering it's been doing this for the last 5 or 6 runs. The radar ptype maps are wonky and it doesn't have thermals on tropicaltidbits so I can't really say which ptype exactly, just frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I can tell it's mid March looking at all that green in east TN going up the western escarpment, state line. Those guys in MA trashing nam within 24 hrs espeacilly in DC Metro gonna have a hard crash when reality sets in in 30 hrs. I will say the NAM seemed a bit wonky imo with that convective blob that infiltrates western FL. I am curious if it had trouble with that. It also had all the heaviest moisture congregate on the east side of the storm. You would think a better radar presentation would have been correct for a storm of this magnitude on the west side. Its like it has the deform band displaced too far west. Idk I guess we will see. Regardless a warm NAM is not good, as it is notorious for superiority in its low level thermals and being able to sniff that out. EDIT: The other wonky thing about the NAM is there is absolutely no CCB to the storm is what I was referencing on the west side of the storm, even up into New England, as it is concentrated more so on the north and the east side of the storm. Doesn't make sense for a bombing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1048 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...Winter Storm expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday Night... .Low pressure will develop off the southeast coast on Monday and deepen as it moves northeast along the coast Monday night and Tuesday. Behind this system upslope snow will persist over Southeast West Virginia into Tuesday night. VAZ011-014-017-018-022-023-034-WVZ043-044-131100- /O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.170313T2200Z-170314T1800Z/ Giles-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Bedford-Summers- Monroe- Including the cities of Pearisburg, Blacksburg, Floyd, New Castle, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Bedford, Hinton, Hix, and Union 1048 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 6 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * Locations...From Summers County West Virginia, southeast to Floyd County, Virginia, north into the southern Shenandoah Valley, including Roanoke and Bedford. * Hazard types...Snow, with some sleet mixed in. * Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches, locally higher possible in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys. * Timing...Early Monday evening until midday Tuesday. * Impacts...Snow covered roads will create hazardous travel. * Winds...North 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Temperatures...In the upper 30s to lower 40s Monday afternoon, falling into the lower 30s Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.