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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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11 hours ago, uncle W said:

March 67 is the benchmark for snow and cold from 3/15 to 3/22...there were three snowfalls from 3/15/67 to 3/22/67...The temp got into the single digits on the 18th...below zero in Islip...this was after a 72 degree day the second week of the month...April 1st and 2nd 67 saw record heat...After that the rest of the spring was as cold with some snow...May 67 is one of the coldest on record...

What an amazing period of extremes the 60s were! Summer 66 was one of our hottest (until 2010 came along lol.)  The winter of 1966-67 ended our record drought, and over 30" of snow fell in Long Island in both February and March that year.

Wasn't there also a big interior snowstorm in 1967 in late April?

 

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8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What an amazing period of extremes the 60s were! Summer 66 was one of our hottest (until 2010 came along lol.)  The winter of 1966-67 ended our record drought, and over 30" of snow fell in Long Island in both February and March that year.

Wasn't there also a big interior snowstorm in 1967 in late April?

 

there were a few wet snow and rain events in late April 1967...I saw wet flakes mixed with rain in May 1967...there was snow north of us in late May 1967...May 9th, 1966 had some snow in Ohio...May 1977 is the only time we had real snow flakes (not ice pellets) falling one morning...late May 1961 had ice pellets at LGA with temps in the low 40's...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

there were a few wet snow and rain events in late April 1967...I saw wet flakes mixed with rain in May 1967...there was snow north of us in late May 1967...May 9th, 1966 had some snow in Ohio...May 1977 is the only time we had real snow flakes (not ice pellets) falling one morning...late May 1961 had ice pellets at LGA with temps in the low 40's...

That must've been our latest "event" lol- even getting a few flakes or ice pellets close to Memorial Day would be amazing.  I thought we had that a few years ago?

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive. We saw the reverse of this in December with the 60 degree day coming after the heaviest snowfall of the month. The last two years really upped the ante on extremes of snowfall and warmth coexisting together. We had precursors to this with the mild first half of 12-13 and January 06 before the record snowfalls. Before that 90-91 and 82-83.

I agree. It has been an extraordinary winter of extremes.

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17 hours ago, Paragon said:

That must've been our latest "event" lol- even getting a few flakes or ice pellets close to Memorial Day would be amazing.  I thought we had that a few years ago?

Mem Day 2013 had a major snowstorm in elevated areas of New England...there was 3-6" in many parts of NH/ME. We had some ice pellets in some areas.

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19 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Mem Day 2013 had a major snowstorm in elevated areas of New England...there was 3-6" in many parts of NH/ME. We had some ice pellets in some areas.

Yes I remember hearing them driving around in my car in Queens!  That was surreal lol.  Our temps were in the 40s during the day weren't they?

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5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Central Park is 23 at noon, Record low max is 28. Should have a good chance of tying or breaking that

 

4 hours ago, Paragon said:

I can't remember the last time we had a record low max during the cold season.....

Just missed it by 1 degree. Pretty extreme though when we started March with a 70 on the 1st. The max on 1st was +25 and today -19.

MAXIMUM         29    343 PM 
3/11 28 in 1885 29 in 1880 31 in 1937+

 

3/1 73 in 1972 70 in 2017 63 in 2004+
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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Just missed it by 1 degree. Pretty extreme though when we started March with a 70 on the 1st. The max on 1st was +25 and today -19.


MAXIMUM         29    343 PM 
3/11 28 in 1885 29 in 1880 31 in 1937+

 

3/1 73 in 1972 70 in 2017 63 in 2004+

BW when was the last time we had a record low max during the cold season? Maybe we'll have more chances this week for both record low mins and record low maxes?

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

BW when was the last time we had a record low max during the cold season? Maybe we'll have more chances this week for both record low mins and record low maxes?

The last one was in June 2015 and during DJFM Jan 04.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last one was in June 2015 and during DJFM Jan 04.

Wow long time!  I remember we had a few in the 90s- the Summer of 92 was quite cold thanks to Pinatubo, and then of course January 1994.  But even in the very hot summer of 1993 we had one in early July before the heat set in.  Back in the 80s quite a few, Christmas 1980, Jan 1985, December 1989.  And I imagine the fall and winter of 1976-77 were full of them.

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22 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Wow Feb. '15 didn't set a record low high?  Interesting.  We had stretches of bitter cold days that didn't get above 20° here, not sure how NYC did though.

2015 and 2016 came close with 2nd place finishes.

2/14 12 in 1916 15 in 2016 17 in 1979
2/15 8 in 1943 18 in 1875 20 in 1923
2/16 11 in 1904 15 in 2003 18 in 1888
2/17 7 in 1896 10 in 1958 13 in 1979
2/18 16 in 1958 17 in 1979 19 in 1903
2/19 16 in 1903 18 in 1936 19 in 1885
2/20 16 in 1885 19 in 2015 19 in 1896
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Just now, bluewave said:

2015 and 2016 came close with 2nd place finishes.

2/14 12 in 1916 15 in 2016 17 in 1979
2/15 8 in 1943 18 in 1875 20 in 1923
2/16 11 in 1904 15 in 2003 18 in 1888
2/17 7 in 1896 10 in 1958 13 in 1979
2/18 16 in 1958 17 in 1979 19 in 1903
2/19 16 in 1903 18 in 1936 19 in 1885
2/20 16 in 1885 19 in 2015 19 in 1896

I'm not surprised that even with the -1 we didn't get the record last year in February.  In the past our Pebruaries were consistently colder- and if you go far enough back they were usually colder than January.

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

I'm not surprised that even with the -1 we didn't get the record last year in February.  In the past our Pebruaries were consistently colder- and if you go far enough back they were usually colder than January.

NYC did get the record minimum on the 14th.

2/14 -1 in 2016 2 in 1916 3 in 1979
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Just now, bluewave said:

NYC did get the record minimum on the 14th.

2/14 -1 in 2016 2 in 1916 3 in 1979

It's good it was late enough to just avoid the 1934 historic cold wave ;-)

And it was the first time since the 1940s we went below 0 in February?

Looking through NYC records, the 1940s were the last time we were ever more than 2 degrees below 0....... I wonder if that will ever happen again.

We had a -6 or a -8 at NYC in 1942 or 1943 if I remember correctly.  What a wild time for extremes, because then we had the big 11 yr cyclic heat pattern repeat in 1944 punctuated by the big hurricane in September.  NYS had a 5.8 earthquake that year too, a few weeks before the hurricane (sort of similar to what happened here in 2011 with an earthquake and Irene.)

 

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44 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's good it was late enough to just avoid the 1934 historic cold wave ;-)

And it was the first time since the 1940s we went below 0 in February?

Looking through NYC records, the 1940s were the last time we were ever more than 2 degrees below 0....... I wonder if that will ever happen again.

We had a -6 or a -8 at NYC in 1942 or 1943 if I remember correctly.  What a wild time for extremes, because then we had the big 11 yr cyclic heat pattern repeat in 1944 punctuated by the big hurricane in September.  NYS had a 5.8 earthquake that year too, a few weeks before the hurricane (sort of similar to what happened here in 2011 with an earthquake and Irene.)

 

I think it was the first February below 0 in NYC since 63. 1979 made it down to 0.

NYC may have had a shot at -10 or lower from 77 to 94 if the Arctic outbreaks were centered further east. The late 70's into mid 80's outbreaks were centered closer to the Midwest when Chicago set their new all time low beating out the late 1800's and early 1900's. 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2015 and 2016 came close with 2nd place finishes.

2/14 12 in 1916 15 in 2016 17 in 1979
2/15 8 in 1943 18 in 1875 20 in 1923
2/16 11 in 1904 15 in 2003 18 in 1888
2/17 7 in 1896 10 in 1958 13 in 1979
2/18 16 in 1958 17 in 1979 19 in 1903
2/19 16 in 1903 18 in 1936 19 in 1885
2/20 16 in 1885 19 in 2015 19 in 1896

Thanks.  Feb. 20th was a cold Friday in 2015.  Stayed in the mid teens all day.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think it was the first February below 0 in NYC since 63. 1979 made it down to 0.

NYC may have had a shot at -10 or lower from 77 to 94 if the Arctic outbreaks were centered further east. The late 70's into mid 80's outbreaks were centered closer to the Midwest when Chicago set their new all time low beating out the late 1800's and early 1900's. 

That makes me wonder if the Arctic outbreaks are being centered further west because of a greater influence of the Ocean.  One of the arguments being made for the Arctic warming up much faster than the Antarctic is because the Arctic is mostly ocean, while Antarctica is of course a continent.  The same argument gets made for why the majority of the time the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere resides in Siberia; Asia is a far larger continent than North America is (and actually it's Eurasia since the boundary between Europe and Asia is more a political and cultural one, rather than one of geography.  Actually, if it wasn't for the artificial Suez Canal, one could call it Afroeurasia, but I digress.....)

 

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Looks like NYC is on its way to a March with more 32 degree lows than we saw during each of the DJF winter months individually. Uncle said the last time that this happened was all the way back in 1960.

NYC 32 or lower days:

Dec 16...11

Jan 17....12

Feb.17...12

Mar 17...7.... with the current forecast exceeding 12 days

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like NYC is on its way to a March with more 32 degree lows than we saw during each of the DJF winter months individually. Uncle said the last time that this happened was all the way back in 1960.

NYC 32 or lower days:

Dec 16...11

Jan 17....12

Feb.17...12

Mar 17...7.... with the current forecast exceeding 12 days

When you first posted this, I didn't understand you meant all the months...Dec, Jan, Feb. Sorry.

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14 minutes ago, nzucker said:

When you first posted this, I didn't understand you meant all the months...Dec, Jan, Feb. Sorry.

That's OK. That banter thread was getting pretty hectic. It looks like NYC also has a shot to average colder than each of the winter months from March 1-20th. We should see a nice dip in the monthly avg and departure over the next week.

Monthly avg temps in NYC

Mar... 40.1...should fall several degrees over the next week

Feb.....41.6

Jan.....38.0

Dec....38.3

eps_t850a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.e7299687f54302e8475ddbe16f42eefd.png

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That's OK. That banter thread was getting pretty hectic. It looks like NYC also has a shot to average colder than each of the winter months from March 1-20th. We should see a nice dip in the monthly avg and departure over the next week.

Monthly avg temps in NYC

Mar... 40.1...should fall several degrees over the next week

Feb.....41.6

Jan.....38.0

Dec....38.3

eps_t850a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.e7299687f54302e8475ddbe16f42eefd.png

 

Yep, very cold pattern this March. High of only 29F this Saturday, 1F off the record low max from 1885.

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