dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 All models are showing a squall line moving through on Saturday. Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: All models are showing a squall line moving through on Saturday. Discuss away It happened last year right around the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 If any of the stronger winds in that squall line can mix down tomorrow evening, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: If any of the stronger winds in that squall line can mix down tomorrow evening, watch out. These narrow low topped squall lines can usually hold together for our area when we have such steep midlevel lapse rates. The Euro has a nice LLJ max like the other models right as the line is coming across our area. So a good chunk of the LLJ could easily mix down later tomorrow into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 The 00z RGEM looks even more intense than 18z. I'm not sure why this isn't getting more attention. SPC has most of the NJ in a MRG risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 High pwat's for this time of the year. Could be some heavy downpours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 These steep midlevel lapse rates look more like something we normally see over the Plains to the Midwest during the summer. Latest HRRR has a very impressive squall line coming through later today into the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Looks the line is going to weaken as it approaches- typical spring climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 If it's anything like the line on 2/24/16 it will be intense. Turned out that was the best t-storm of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, Paragon said: Looks the line is going to weaken as it approaches- typical spring climo Of course this time of year once you lose daytime heating and approach a 45 degree ocean influenced environment, it's gonna weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Which is why our best severe weather happens in late summer and fall. I remember a couple of nice hailstorms in May though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 You can actually get severe weather in the middle of winter on Long Island, I remember a tornado warning and severe t-storm warnings in the middle of January when a warm front passed through early in the morning. Warm frontal passages are better for us for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I think the cutoff for severe is near the Hudson River today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 52 minutes ago, gravitylover said: If it's anything like the line on 2/24/16 it will be intense. Turned out that was the best t-storm of the year here. I could see this as something similar. Not much thunder or lightning but quick hitting heavy rain gusty winds and outta here in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Looks like the slight risk moved east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I doubt much happens here and east more than some thunder and heavy showers, but there could be some nice activity further west in NJ. There's definitely some daytime heating happening there and a strong frontal boundary coming through. Along with plenty of moisture and steep lapse rates as others pointed out. CAPE values in NJ are also approaching 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I see a lot of daytime heating today too; it's hotter than yesterday was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I see a lot of daytime heating today too; it's hotter than yesterday was! Some places yes, its sunny and 70s over parts of the interior. Central Park is down to 59 and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Weird, eastern LI (Shirley) is up to 63 already, as it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Up to 62 here as the sun has popped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I doubt anything severe comes out of this you'll hear some thunder and see some ground lightning maybe some 35mph gusts but nothing where it'll you'll see widespread damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 NWS just issued ST watches up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: I doubt anything severe comes out of this you'll hear some thunder and see some ground lightning maybe some 35mph gusts but nothing where it'll you'll see widespread damage. "Widespread" damage almost never happens with severe thunderstorms anyway..... we're not about a tornado here bro, but it absolutely will meet severe thunderstorm criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: "Widespread" damage almost never happens with severe thunderstorms anyway..... we're not about a tornado here bro, but it absolutely will meet severe thunderstorm criteria Lightning strikes are looking good though but you know that's about to weaken a bit as it scoots east. Although a red flag is these are moving slow so maybe you can get some severe storms just west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Lightning strikes are looking good though but you know that's about to weaken a bit as it Scott's east. Although a red flag is these are moving slow so maybe you can get some severe storms just west of NYC. Steep lapse rates will compensate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 February super cells turning up in east central PA. Must suspect wind damage. My station has been sustained winds at 14 mph the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 This is some serious rainfall rates coming too... widespread .5" QPF in 1 hour .4- 1.2" QPF in just an hour and a half with this Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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